Women’s basketball bubble watch: Do Villanova, Syracuse, Colorado have tournament resumes?

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

On Monday, Iowa State was off the bubble and completely in the field. This week, the Cyclones find themselves back where they started after losing 83-69 on Tuesday night to BYU. That’s how fast things can change.

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This week’s group of 16 (last four byes, last four in, first four out, next four out) includes representatives from the Big East, ACC, A-10, Big 12, Summit League and MAAC.

Here’s who’s in and who’s out (for now):

Villanova

In bracketology, big wins are the flashiest resume-builder, but equally as important (though not nearly as exciting) is beating the teams you are supposed to beat. That is a crucial element of Villanova’s resume. The Wildcats are 13-0 in Quad 4 games and 4-1 in Quad 3 games. That’s not enough to earn a bid, but it’s a great start — though Villanova could have done without that Quad 3 loss to St. John’s. The Wildcats also have a Quad 1 win against West Virginia and a Quad 2 win over James Madison. That all adds up to a bid and a bye (which means they avoid the First Four games), at least for now. Villanova will almost certainly lose to UConn on Feb. 18, which won’t hurt its resume, but a loss to any other team left on the schedule will.

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Syracuse

One way to get off the bubble and into the field: Beat other bubble squads. Head-to-head matchups are a way the committee decides between two teams with similar resumes. Because of this, Syracuse gets an edge over fellow bubble teams Utah, Virginia, California and Stanford. The Orange also beat Miami, which is just outside of our group of 16. Three resume-boosting games remain on Syracuse’s schedule: Clemson, NC State and Notre Dame. Victories over Clemson and Notre Dame would further solidify the Orange’s status as a bye team, while defeating NC State would move them completely off the bubble.

Richmond

The bubble is volatile; Richmond is proof of that. Last week the Spiders were part of the “first four out” group, but this week they’ve jumped over “last four in” and earned themselves one of the byes. As we’ve previously discussed, the A-10 is a strong conference, but mid-major teams need to chase perfection in order to find themselves in March Madness. That’s why Richmond’s 71-57 win over George Mason on Saturday, which moved the Spiders into second place in the A-10, was massive. A loss would have pushed them further to the wrong side of the bubble, but the win gave their resume a lift.