There are lots of projection systems that proclaim themselves the most accurate, the one that hits the target more often when talking about how a player will perform. It’s a tricky business because there are so many variables that go into a season that getting even half of the projection correct would be a boon to the system. This week, at Baseball Prospectus, they are celebrating PECOTA week, the one in which they reveal the projections about the teams and players based on their proprietary system PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm).
Don’t ask me about their math and wizardry because I don’t know either.
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What I do know is that theirs is the system I find to be most accurate when trying to determine how well a player is going to play in a given season, so when that projection is given, I like to spend some time with it. Go through all of the different percentiles, how things could shape up if player X performs well or underperforms. There is a lot of information to go through, but some things do stand out about them. These are just a few of the initial observations about PECOTA’s thoughts about the 2026 Phillies.
It does not like their chances of winning the division
The initial release of the expected standings based on PECOTA projections always brings some consternation. The system always believes in the Braves and never believes in the Brewers. For the Phillies, right now, they don’t seem overly optimistic of their winning the National League East for a third consecutive season.
Now, the thing about these projected standings is they are pretty fluid. They adjust things based on the news that is received during the day. For example, when these were initially released, the Braves had an extra two wins while the Phillies were a few tenths of a win behind their current 86 total. With the news that Spencer Schwellenbach is expected to miss a sizeable chunk of time, things were adjusted a bit.
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One thing that should be encouraging is that for all the gnashing of teeth about the team’s moves (or lack thereof) this offseason, PECOTA still sees them as pretty comfortable playoff team. It just likes the Braves to be a division winner more than the Phillies, which is understandable to a degree. PECOTA always loves Atlanta and nothing much has changed there.
But the Phillies? Don’t plan on getting a replica division pennant flag on opening day in 2027.
Adolis Garcia rebound szn?
Perhaps the most controversial signing the Phillies made this offseason was bringing in Adolis Garcia to take over right field duties from Nick Castellanos. A one year deal like this one shouldn’t bring too much controversy with it, but the timing, the cost and the seemingly preventative nature of it caused many to sneer in derision at the mere reminder of the deal.
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PECOTA is a bit more optimistic in its projection. Garcia hit .227/.271/.394 with 19 home runs last year, a sizeable step back from his previous seasons’ production. His DRC+ of 91 (Deserved Runs Created) was markedly better than his 83 wRC+, yet still a below average number.
However, take a bit more of a step back and something should be a bit rosier. Here is Garcia’s 2025 season compared to his 50th percentile projection from 2025:
2025: .227/.271/.394, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 13 SB, 91 DRC+, 1.4 DRP
2025 50th percentile: .228/.292/.413, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB, 101 DRC+, -2 DRP
PECOTA was pretty optimistic about Garcia at least being a .700 OPS hitter last season, though still saw his on-base percentage being an issue. It’s kind of scary how accurate they were with that projection actually.
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For 2026, the outlook is every so slightly rosier (50th percentile: .236/.295/.428, 23 HR, 74 RBI, 97 DRC+), seeing maybe some upticks in both his on-base and slugging percentages with his going to a better hitter’s park than the one in Texas. It does not predict the under the hood stuff, things like bat speed, chase rate and the like, but if we’re to guesstimate on that, seeing at least both of those numbers fall from 2024 to 2025 doesn’t exactly make one feel good. It’s still not great for the money that they allotted to Garcia for 2026, but at least on the baseball card stats, PECOTA thinks that maybe there is some improvement coming over what he did last year. If he gets to those 70th, or even 80th, percentile projections, well now we have something much better on our hands.
The offense as a whole? PECOTA still believes in you to produce
If you’re of a certain age and you have a couch or chair that is lower than normal to the ground, you know that getting older is not something that is enjoyable. Pay no mind to those commercials where people are out galivanting around wineries all day once they hit the age of 70, your body starts to betray you earlier and earlier it feels like. Try as you might, but Father Time remains undefeated against all challengers.
In baseball age, the Phillies are getting older, yet PECOTA is not really sure what to think of them. Looking at just the 50th percentile DRC+ projections, there is really only one that it sees taking a big step back. Kyle Schwarber is the biggest, but his DRC+ would go from the 154 to 127 this year. That shouldn’t be surprising as expecting him to repeat his MVP runner up season with something equal to it would be foolish. But the system still believes in Bryce Harper (120 DRC+ in 2025, 127 projection) and Trea Turner (103 in 2023, 109 projection). Surprisingly, it also doesn’t portend much of a cliff dive by J.T. Realmuto (91 in 2025, 99 projection)
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The biggest one that I was surprised at was what it thinks about Brandon Marsh. Pockets of the fanbase don’t see him as more than a platoon bat and the front office would agree, going out of their way to mention Otto Kemp and others as potential partners to Marsh’s left handed bat. Yet PECOTA sees that if roughly 450 at bats, against who it does not know, Marsh would hit to a 102 DRC+, a ten point increase from what he accumulated in 2025. Wonder what more playing time against left handed pitching would do to help him improve against it. After all, how can you get better at the weakness if you’re never allowed to go against it?
Projection systems really like hitters that have produced well in the past. If you’ve done it often, it believes you can continue to do it over and over again, so long as there aren’t many major issues.
