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Michigan basketball bracketology: Meet the new No. 1 overall seed

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The home stretch of the college basketball season has arrived, with Selection Sunday less than a month away.

Michigan basketball (24-1, 14-1 Big Ten) couldn’t be in a better position as the final power conference team with just one loss in the nation after Arizona lost twice last week.

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The Wolverines enter a brutal week with a road game at Purdue on Tuesday, Feb. 17 (6:30 p.m., Peacock), then clash with Duke on Saturday in a nonconference game in Washington, DC (6:30 p.m., ESPN).

On the heels of another 2-0 week in the Big Ten, which makes 10 straight wins overall, the Wolverines will be the No. 1 team in the nation when rankings from coaches and media come out Monday afternoon. If that holds, it would likely equate to the No. 1 overall seed in March Madness, too.

The resume Michigan has put together is now unquestionably the best in the country with one month before the NCAA tournament.

Here’s where coach Dusty May’s team stands with six regular-season games left before conference tournament play.

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REQUIRED READING: How Michigan basketball built nation’s biggest and best frontcourt

Michigan basketball schedule this week

  • Tuesday: at Purdue, 6:30 p.m., Peacock

  • Saturday: vs. Duke, 6:30 p.m., ESPN (in Washington, DC)

Michigan basketball bracketology for NCAA tournament

Michigan basketball NET rankings: No. 1 (Last week: No. 1)

All stats as of Sunday afternoon.

Michigan’s Nimari Burnett (4), Elliot Cadeau (3), Roddy Gayle Jr. (11) and Aday Mara (15) lock arms during the first half against UCLA at Crisler Center on Feb. 14, 2026 in Ann Arbor.

KenPom rankings: No. 1 (Last week: No. 1)

All rankings as of Sunday afternoon.

  • Offensive efficiency: No. 4.

  • Defensive efficiency: No. 1.

Michigan basketball bracketology projections

  • USA TODAY: 1-seed in Midwest vs. Merrimack/UMBC winner (updated Feb. 13).

  • CBS: 1-seed in Midwest vs. Merrimack (updated Feb. 15).

  • On3: 1-seed in Midwest vs. Bethune Cookman/Morgan State winner (updated Feb. 15).

  • ESPN: 1-seed in Midwest vs. NJIT/Morgan State winner (updated Feb. 13).

  • Fox Sports: 1-seed in Midwest vs. Merrimack/Morgan State winner (updated Feb. 13).

  • The Athletic: 1-seed in Midwest vs. Merrimack/Morgan State winner (updated Feb. 10).

Michigan basketball scores last week

Michigan forward Will Tschetter (42) celebrates a play against Michigan State during the second half at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026.

Michigan forward Will Tschetter (42) celebrates a play against Michigan State during the second half at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026.

  • Feb 11: 87-75 win at Northwestern − Michigan played its worst half of the season, then got outscored by seven points in the first five minutes of the second half to fall down 16. The Wolverines didn’t panic, but surged with a 45-17 advantage over the final 14:22 of a furious finish in Evanston, Illinois. L.J. Cason scored a career-high 18 points, Yaxel Lendeborg had 15 points and Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara and Trey McKenney each scored 12.

  • Feb 14: 86-56 win vs. UCLA − For the second time in the week, a tight first half turned into a second-half runaway. Michigan led UCLA, 40-38, at the break, then blitzed the Bruins in the second half, making 18 of 23 shots (78.3%) as part of a 46-18 second-half domination for the program’s 10th victory of 30 points or more this season. Lendeborg led the way with 17 points and Johnson made all six of his shots and three free throws for 15 points.

BLAST FROM THE PAST: What legend Cazzie Russell thinks about this Michigan basketball team

How NCAA tournament committee selects at-large teams

  • Record: The team’s overall record, conference record and nonconference record.

  • Strength of schedule: The strength of the opponents the team played against.

  • Head-to-head results: The results of games between the teams being compared.

  • Conference championships: Whether a conference championship was won in the regular season or tournament.

  • Common opponents: The results of games against common opponents.

  • Adjusted Net Efficiency (NET): The NCAA’s preferred metric measuring a team’s overall performance during the regular season.

  • Team Value Index: A results-oriented component of the NET that ranks teams based on who they beat and where they played.

  • Rating Percentage Index (RPI): A formula that ranks teams using a team’s winning percentage, opponents’ success and opponents’ strength of schedule.

Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball bracketology: Meet the new No. 1 overall seed

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