Expansion has hovered over the NBA for years. Now, it appears closer than ever. Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News recently reported that the NBA Board of Governors is “likely to vote on expanding by two teams this summer,” with Las Vegas and Seattle favored. If approved, the league would move toward an expansion draft—possibly as soon as the 2027 offseason.
The format is simple but ruthless. Each existing franchise can protect up to eight players. The two new teams then take turns selecting from the unprotected pool, and each current team can lose only one player.
Unrestricted free agents are ineligible, and attempting to poach a restricted free agent would immediately make him unrestricted. For the Oklahoma City Thunder, that’s where things get complicated.
The Thunder have more than eight players worth protecting
Three names are automatic: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. Losing any of them for nothing is inconceivable.
Next come two young guards who have become essential. Ajay Mitchell has been one of the best two-way bench guards in the league and is firmly in the Sixth Man of the Year race. In 584 minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander this season, Mitchell has averaged 20.1 points and 6.1 assists per 75 possessions.
Cason Wallace may earn All-Defensive First Team honors and is rapidly expanding his offensive game. At 23 and 22 years old, respectively, Mitchell and Wallace are decade-long building blocks.
That’s five.
Isaiah Hartenstein should also be protected, assuming Oklahoma City declines his team option and signs him long-term. He’s an elite interior defender and rebounder who unlocks dribble-handoff offense with his passing. At 27, he fits both timelines. Now there are just two spots left.
The final two Thunder spots are brutally difficult
Aaron Wiggins earns one. He spaces the floor, creates off the dribble when needed, and his defense has taken a leap. Even more important, he’s on a bargain contract—$10.1 million this season and just $25.9 million combined over the next three years.
The eighth and final slot is where philosophy meets strategy. Thomas Sorber gets the nod here, even though he hasn’t debuted due to injury. The Georgetown product projects as an impactful rim protector with soft touch and high-level passing for a big.
That archetype is rare, and he has three years left on a rookie deal. It’s controversial because it leaves legitimate contributors exposed.
Expansion draft exposes real Thunder contributors
If Sorber is protected, then players like Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Jared McCain, Nikola Topić, Jaylin Williams, or Kenrich Williams could be vulnerable.
That sounds terrifying, but Oklahoma City’s depth softens the blow. If Dort is selected, the Thunder still have Wallace and Caruso as elite perimeter defenders. If Joe or McCain is taken, the backcourt still includes Mitchell and Topić.
If Caruso is poached, Dort and Wallace remain. The Thunder would lose a key piece. There’s no sugarcoating that.
But thanks to their extraordinary depth, internal development, and surplus of first-round picks, Oklahoma City is one of the few contenders built to survive an expansion draft even if it forces tough decisions sooner than expected.
