The Genesis Invitational is back at Riviera Country Club after last year’s detour to Torrey Pines because of the wildfires, and that changes everything. Torrey asked players to survive around 12 under, while Riviera usually demands closer to 17 to win. Same “hard course” label — but completely different scoring pressure. Here, you still need elite irons and touch around the greens, but you also have to convert.
I’m targeting players who can create birdie looks with approach shots, save themselves when they miss the greens and actually capitalize on momentum. Riviera is iron-first, poa-sensitive and separates the field through tee to green consistency.
From a pricing standpoint, I don’t love this board. Most top 20s are juiced, and I’m not paying tax just to have action. I rarely step into Top 10 unless there is a real ceiling case. So this is a light card, but not a pretty one, which means passing is always an option. If we’re playing, here’s what I have.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
Best bets
Hideki Matsuyama: Top 10 (+170)
Full odds
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Top 20 (-142)
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Top 5 (+365)
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To win (22-1)
I usually live in the top-20 streets because that’s where consistency pays, but Deki is one of the few guys I’m comfortable stepping up to a Top 10 for this week — because he spikes.
Matsuyama’s whole game is built for hard golf courses. He’s elite with his irons, top 10 in the field from tee to green, first around the greens and one of the best scramblers on tour. All that means is when Hideki misses the green, he saves himself, which keeps rounds alive and prevents big numbers.
He’s won here before but also has two missed cuts, making volatility a possibility. But if his irons are crisp and he finds his touch with his short game, Matsuyama can jump the leaderboard. That’s why I don’t mind the Top 10 because I see him more as a Top 5 — a ceiling play.
Maverick McNealy: Top 20 (+115)
Full odds:
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Top 10 (+280)
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Top 5 (+620)
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To win (41-1)
McNealy is better than the market thinks. The plus-money price on a Top 20 shows skepticism. Perhaps it’s the streaky putting or the lack of bombs off the tee, but that’s fine because Riviera demands control.
Riviera is an approach-first course with missed greens baked into the design. You have to create looks with irons and then survive around the green. That’s where McNealy quietly fits. He’s top 25 from tee to green, long enough off the tee and — more importantly — precise from the fairway. His putting also helps (top 10 in the field) on a course that neutralizes elite putters, but rewards guys who can stay steady on poa and convert momentum looks. McNealy does that.
He does have a T7 at Riviera in 2022 gaining over nine strokes total and finished 10th at Torrey Pines earlier this month, showing that he likes long, demanding setups where tee to green play carries weight. Top 20 asks for solid ball striking and average saves, which fits his current form and Riviera profile. This is a respect bet.
Scottie Scheffler: To Win (+320)
Full odds:
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Top 10 (-300)
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Top 5 (-144)
This price will have you wrinkling your nose. Sure, it feels short and looks expensive, and feels like you’re paying retail pricing, but then you look at the field and think, “Oh, Scottie is winning this week.”
He’s the gold standard because his game travels anywhere, but what makes this week interesting is that his irons, which are still top five in the field, have been the “weakest” part of his game … and that tells you everything. When your baseline is that high, you don’t need perfection.
He’s also first from tee to green and off the tee, and third in scrambling. Position yourself, miss in the correct spots and survive when greens are inevitably missed. Scottie does that better than anyone. Even if his iron play is not as its ceiling, it’s still elite enough to generate looks. And when he does miss, he saves par at an absurd rate.
His opening rounds haven’t been sharp this year, losing strokes tee to green on Thursdays. In fact, the splits are wild: negative Thursday, followed by plus-three or minus-three strokes gained per round Friday through Sunday. I wouldn’t call that volatility, but more calibrating. He figures out the course, then suffocates the fields.
The price looks gross, but it’s the best golfer in the world on a course that magnifies his edge. Wait for a better price? You don’t give up the pre-tournament price chasing a hypothetical dip. The books know this pattern, too. If he’s a few strokes back, you may see +400, not a massive discount relative to his true win probability.
Top 5 at -144 is fine but it’s thin, for a player whose win equity is real here. If his profile matches the winners’ template and he’s the best tee-to-green player, +320 isn’t gross. It’s justified.
Players to consider for Daily Fantasy
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Ryo Hisatsune $6,800: This is pure upside. He’s top 10 from tee to green right now with top 25 approach and strong poa putting. Ball striking here creates separation and putting just needs to be neutral. He has three straight top 10 finishes, coming off a T2 at Torrey, T10 at Phoenix and T8 at Pebble — three demanding setups, showing iron ceiling. The risk is obvious: first Riviera start and average scrambling, but at this price, you’re buying approach upside and recent form. If the irons travel, a Top 25 is live.
Patrick Cantlay $9,300: This is a conditional yes. You’re paying for Riviera fit and not current momentum. He’s gained double-digit tee to green here before with multiple top 5 finishes and his overall profile does match what works for this course — strong approach play, steady off the tee, and neutral poa putting. The concern is volatility: If his irons dip, that could be troublesome because his scrambling isn’t elite. At this price, Cantlay isn’t a ceiling play like Scheffler, but a stability piece. Cash and single-entry viable or GPP only if ownership stays modest.
DFS player to fade
Jake Knapp $8,600: Yes, he has five straight top 11 finishes and a T17 in this event last year — but that was at Torrey Pines, not Riviera. Knapp’s current run is being fueled by elite driving distance and a scorching putter. Great combo, but not necessarily for this course. Think approach precision and touch around the greens. He’s ranked poorly in both approach relative to the field and his scrambling is average at best. This price is paying for a recent heater, and overlooking Riviera fit.
