Arizona has played one of the most difficult schedules in the country this season, facing nine ranked opponents and beating seven of them. But now comes arguably the toughest test yet in No. 2 Houston.
The Cougars (23-3, 11-2) are the only team in the Big 12 the Wildcats haven’t beaten since joining the league last season, and they’ll be playing in the Fertitta Center where Houston has won 18 in a row and has only suffered one conference loss in three years. Throw in that there are three starters back from the team that played in the NCAA title game and this is going to be a hard won to win.
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To better understand the Coogs, we reached out to Sam Razz of the Scott & Holman Pawdcast for some insight and a score prediction. Below are his impressive answers to our mediocre questions:
AZ Desert Swarm: Houston had won six in a row before falling at Iowa State on Monday night. What do you think went wrong in that game, and is there any concern of a carryover?
Sam Razz: “Given what a challenging opponent Iowa State is at Hilton Coliseum (somewhere the Coogs have not won in two trips as a Big 12 member), I would say Monday night was less a ‘what went wrong’ and more a ‘the stars didn’t align’. But the two biggest things that didn’t happen were: forcing turnovers and Emanuel Sharp being able to play his full complement of minutes.
“This year’s Cougar team has for the balance of the season been quite good at turning opponents over, but only forced three turnovers (and 0 points off those) on Monday night in Ames. Even after doing uncharacteristically poorly in this area at ISU the Coogs are ninth nationally in opponent turnover percentage, but that is an absolutely vital component to how this team wins games and just didn’t happen in this one.
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“I argued on our latest podcast that Sharp’s presence both on and off the floor was most felt of any player on either UH or ISU from this game. Sharp was fantastic when playing on Monday, hitting several high degree-of-difficulty 3-pointers and making all his free throws, but picked up three fouls in the first 6 minutesix of the 2nd half and had to sit until late in the game. The Coogs were able to build as much as a 10-point lead with Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac having great halves, but missing their senior go-to scorer ultimately the offense ran dry and Sharp looked cold when he finally could sub back into the game. Monday was the second-fewest minutes Sharp played in a Big 12 game (the least was a blowout win over ASU) and in my opinion that’s the biggest reason the Coogs couldn’t get the road upset.”
There’s a lot of the same on this team from the one that beat Arizona twice last season, but it’s hard not to first look at the new. Freshman Kingston Flemings seems unlike the kind of players the Cougars have had of late under Kelvin Sampson. What has made him so special and where (if any place) has he still looked like a freshman?
“Flemings came in as a heralded prospect as Texas’ top high school point guard recruit, but was actually only the third-highest rated recruit in the Coogs’ 2025 class behind Chris Cenac and Isiah Harwell. My expectation when he signed was that he’d be the Coogs’ backup point and understudy to Milos Uzan, then take over in 2026-27. Obviously, I underestimated the young man’s abilities.
“In terms of what makes Flemings so special, he’s an extraordinary athlete who can combine playing the game at an unbelievable speed as both a creator and slasher, while not hampering the offense with ‘typical freshman’ things like silly turnovers or other mental lapses. This program under Kelvin Sampson has had a number of very good guards come through, but they were all multi-year development projects, and after Flemings’s first few weeks this season it was apparent that his college career would be a short one. He’s also the kind of player who raises his game to the biggest moments, as evidenced by his 25-plus points per game average against ranked opponents. Bottom line, he possesses an uncommon skillset as both a scorer and point guard and that’s why he won’t have to wait for too many picks this summer to hear his name called in the NBA Draft.
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“This is not to say that Flemings doesn’t have the occasional freshmen moment, though. In the two games immediately prior to Monday’s against Iowa St, Flemings shot a combined 4 of 22 from the field in wins over Utah and Kansas State. Given the speed he plays with, sometimes turnovers have been an issue (combined seven TOs in the last two against K-State/Iowa State) but not often enough that I could call it a major flaw in his game.”
The last few opponents have really packed the paint against Arizona, forcing it to take 3s or longer 2-pointers than normal and not get to the line as much. But Houston is the worst in the Big 12 in avoiding fouls, which would play right into the Wildcats’ hands. How do you think the Coogs will try to keep this from happening?
“With the caveat that no team (certainly not a Kelvin Sampson-coached one) wants to commit dumb dead ball fouls or fouls 50-60 feet from the basket, I don’t really believe the Coogs ever go out there actively trying to avoid fouling too much. In the past five seasons, this program has ranked 221st or lower nationally (per KenPom) in opponent free throw rate. The extremely physical defense that Sampson-era Cougar men’s basketball plays with has a side effect of fouls piling up sometimes. As Sampson said in a postgame presser earlier this season: ‘Hoss, we’ve been fouling since you were born.’
“That said, foul trouble has loomed large in some of the big games this season and I just detailed in question 1 how it played a role in Monday’s loss at Iowa State. But if the Coogs can avoid having one player each from their starting backcourt and frontcourt groups in noticeable foul trouble on Saturday then I feel decent about the Coogs’ chances. I also expect the Wildcats to have a decent edge in free throw attempts, regardless of the game’s outcome.”
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This will be the matchup between the conference’s top offense (Houston) and defense (Arizona). Where do you think the Coogs have the biggest advantage when they have the ball, and where are they most vulnerable.
“Considering how good the Wildcats are at keeping opponents from making shots and grabbing offensive boards, I don’t think any advantage there is pronounced enough to be the answer to this question. I think the Coogs’ biggest ‘on paper’ advantage in this one is their ability, despite facing some very good defensive teams, to protect the ball against an Arizona team that has done basically everything but force turnovers at some degree of high level this season. That also isn’t me saying Arizona can’t beat the Cougars as a team that doesn’t turn opponents over very often, as Tennessee/Texas Tech are both worse in that area than the Wildcats are and have wins over this season’s Cougar team.
“What concerns me the most is the ability to score inside this Arizona team that (I probably don’t need to tell you and your readers) has been truly elite at keeping opponents from scoring inside the arc. Relative to last year, UH has improved noticeably at scoring, or at least scoring more efficiently, inside the arc and having an elite midrange shooter in Kingston Flemings has been a big help. Even with Koa Peat not playing in this one, that’s what is giving me the most heartburn when the Coogs have the ball.”
Houston regularly plays 10, while Arizona will be without at least one member of its 8-man rotation. Which bench guys do you figure to have the greatest impact on this game?
“I am glad you asked about the bench, because that’s become something of a pain point in recent weeks. In Monday’s loss to ISU, the Coogs were outscored 25-6 by the Cyclones despite playing three more players off the bench and Isiah Harwell getting extended minutes with Sharp sitting in foul trouble. The Coogs’ top two guards off the bench (Harwell and Ramon Walker Jr) are shooting below 30 percent in Big 12 play and that’ll be something that has to change if this team has designs on playing until April like last year’s team (which had two very good bench guys in Mylik Wilson and Ja’vier Francis).
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“To actually answer your question though, I expect grad student big man Kalifa Sakho to be the most impactful bench player for the Coogs on Saturday. He’ll never be confused with a volume scorer, but Sakho has noticeably improved there from the start of the season and will likely play more spelling starting big men JoJo Tugler and Chris Cenac Jr. than any of the bench guards will for their starting counterparts.”
Prediction time. Does Tommy Lloyd finally beat Houston or do the Coogs bounce back from the loss to Iowa State and take a stranglehold on first place in the Big 12? Give us a score prediction.
“This is one of those games where the location really matters as I probably would not be making the same prediction if this was being played at the McKale Center. I believe the Coogs will find a way to win a tight game with a 77-71 kind of final that probably isn’t indicative of how competitive the proceedings actually are. Not that Arizona isn’t uniquely prepared to deal with Peat’s absence by having Tobe Awaka on the roster, but I think that will be a big absence in what I still expect to be a ‘fine margins’ kind of basketball game.
“Regardless of the outcome, I’ll be traveling back to Houston from where I live now in the western US to catch this one in person and could not be more excited to watch the Wildcats and Coogs fight it out for first place in this league.”
