With just five regular season games remaining on the schedule, including Friday night’s matchup against Purdue at Mackey Arena, the Indiana Hoosiers are, once again, on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
As of now, they happen to be on the right side of it. The Hoosiers are in 122 of 122 brackets surveyed on Bracket Matrix, currently sitting as the highest No. 10-seed.
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But things can change quickly, even without the Hoosiers taking the court. Take Wisconsin, for example. At 35 in the NET rankings, they are currently one of Indiana’s two Quad 2 wins. If they had been able to beat Ohio State earlier this week, though, the win over the Badgers would have helped the Hoosiers to a 3-8 record in Quad 1 games.
Regardless of what other teams do, Indiana likely needs to get to that third quad one win to feel good come Selection Sunday. There’s a few ways they could land said win.
Winning at Purdue, however unlikely, would give Indiana an extremely solid third Quad 1 win and probably some breathing room down the stretch. A win Friday probably moves Indiana up a seed or two. Then there’s a home contest against Michigan State, which will no doubt remain a Quad 1 opponent, and a road game against Ohio State. Both are projected to be tough games, with KenPom projecting losses in both contests. Bart Torvik, on the other hand, gives Indiana a 52% chance to beat the Spartans but projects a loss in Columbus.
If the Hoosiers can’t beat one of Purdue, Michigan State or Ohio State, Darian DeVries and company will need Wisconsin to climb back into the top 30 of the NET rankings for that third Quad 1 win. The Badgers are currently 35th in the NCAA’s rankings, with three Quad 1 games remaining.
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Even then, losing all three of the remaining Quad 1 games would mean a 10-10 Big Ten record, at best, for the Hoosiers. Mike Woodson got Indiana to the First Four with a 9-11 record in conference play, but it did take two wins in the Big Ten Tournament to seal that berth.
While a first year tournament appearance for Indiana should not make or break DeVries’ tenure, this roster was built to win this year and the staff will be looking at major roster turnover again this coming offseason. Making the postseason would be a good selling point for recruits and boosters that DeVries has things going in the right direction.
