Future No. 1 seeds. Likely First Team All-Americans. Two of the best ever in the Kenpom era. Saturday’s colossal showdown between the Michigan Wolverines and the Duke Blue Devils has it all. Regardless of what the AP Poll says, these are the best two teams in the nation, and Washington, DC might not be the last place these squads face off this season. Simply put, few non-Final Four games ever reach this level of quality.
It could be argued that this game is more or less house money. Michigan’s quest for a Big Ten title is temporarily paused, and neither squad is likely to fall off the one seed line. However, do not expect anyone to hold back. Playing the best brings the out the best, and players on both sides know that the entire nation’s attention (including NBA scouts) will be glued to this one Saturday night. This is why we love sports.
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No. 1 Michigan (25-1) vs. No. 3 Duke (24-2)
Date & Time: Saturday, Feb. 21, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Michigan has lost 10 of the last 11 matchups between these teams, though they have not met since December 2013 when No. 10 Duke beat the No. 22 Wolverines at Cameron Indoor in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. The last Michigan win came in December 2008, which was actually the second meeting between the schools in a couple weeks. The Blue Devils won the Empire Classic, but Michigan got revenge in Ann Arbor, recording its second top-5 win of the season.
Two Stats to Watch
Duke 2PT Shooting: 62.0% (4th)
Like Michigan, the Blue Devils do most of their damage inside the arc, nearly matching the Wolverines’ elite efficiency from close range. They take just slightly more threes, though hit them at a lower rate, so both teams will have to keep pace on the interior. Michigan does have the second-best defense against twos this year and the best average two-point distance, but the Duke offense is No. 7 in the country, so this is going to be a battle.
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Obviously, the conversation starts with Cameron Boozer, a future top-3 pick. Boozer has done it all these season, averaging 22.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game on 55.4% shooting. As good as the Michigan defense is, completely shutting him down is basically impossible, so the goal will be containment, forcing Boozer to work for his points, while not sacrificing the integrity of the rest of the defense to stop him.
Can this be done? One thing that Dusty May has shown is a willingness to be flexible, even within games. Expect the Wolverines to try differing amounts of switching on screens depending on how effective it is, as well as varying coverages against Boozer. Given that Duke has a patient offense that plays more methodically than Michigan’s, nailing the tactics is imperative; one slip up will kill a defensive possesion.
Duke Adj. Defense: 2nd
The only defense better than Duke this season has been Michigan. The Wolverines have faced — and beaten — other top-10 units like Michigan State, Nebraska, and Gonzaga, but Saturday is going to be a real fight. The Blue Devils have a lineup full of athleticism and size, as one might expect from a bunch of former top-25 recruits, and this is going to be a real challenge for the Michigan backcourt which does not measure the same way.
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Duke basically never fouls, rebounds extremely well, and generates a decent number of steals. This puts a lot of pressure on a Michigan offense that has been really good drawing fouls and creating second chances as of late, while turnover problems have started to reemerge. This game is going to come down to shot-making, which is a true test of good-on-good.
To win, the Wolverines just need to stick to what has worked all year. While Duke defends the paint well, now is not the time to settle for jumpers. Move the ball, get to the basket, and take (and hit) the makeable shots. When there is an opportunity in transition, attack before the defense is settled. Wildness by Elliot Cadeau or an overreliance on threes are how this game can be lost. Conversely, even against a team of this size, Michigan has the ability to consistently make enough buckets to claim this monster win.
