Outside the top 75 of KenPom, Risk to Miss the ACCT
18. Georgia Tech (Prev: 17, 2-11): Losers of 9 in a row and 12 of 13, Georgia Tech lost by 26 to Virginia at home and then went to Louisville and lost by 17.
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17. Boston College (Prev: 17, 2-12): The Eagles similarly have lost 8 in a row including to FSU and then SMU this week.
16. Notre Dame (Prev: 15, 3-11): The Irish lost to previously last place Pittsburgh… at home!
15. Pittsburgh (Prev: 18, 3-11): The Pittsburgh Panthers have won a game! They only played six players in the win. Two of them are freshmen and they have a top 10 recruiting class coming in. Could their be hope for Coach Capel?
Spoilers
14. Stanford (Prev: 11, 5-9): Stanford lost their only game this week and have now been swept by the rival Cal Bears.
13. Syracuse (Prev: 11, 6-9): The Orange went to Duke and lost by nearly 40 and then they came home and lost to UNC by 13.
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12. Wake Forest (Prev: 13, 5-9): Wake Forest earned a quad 2 win over Clemson on Wednesday. They were red-hot from 3 and built a 20-point lead. As halftime neared, Clemson got their footing and early in the second half they came roaring back. The Tigers cut it to 5, but Wake Forest responded, pushed it back to double-digits, and held Clemson at bay. It was an impressive win, but they then followed it by going to Blacksburg and losing to VT by 19. That quad 1 loss dropped them to 1-10 vs. quad 1 (FSU road win moved up to quad 1).
11. California (Prev: 12, 7-7): Stanford missed 11 free throws and that was just enough for Cal to sweep the season series with Stanford and get a 72-66 win over the Cardinal on Saturday. They host SMU on Wednesday in a quad 1 game. After that they play the bottom of the conference with Pitt and then at Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. They are currently the first team out according to CBS and would likely be on the right side of the bubble if they can win out in the regular season.
10. Virginia Tech (Prev: 10, 7-8): The Hokies had their tournament chances undercut by a 1-point loss to Miami. They rebounded with a 19-point win over Wake Forest in Blacksburg. They’d lost to them in Winston-Salem earlier in the year so it was a good revenge win, but it could be too little too late. With North Carolina, Boston College, and Virginia remaining, they may need to win out. They are not in CBS’s first four out, but they must be awfully close.
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9. Clemson (Prev: 5, 10-5): The Tigers have now lost four in a row. They had a rough week last week with losses to VT and Duke, but this week was far worse. They went to Winston-Salem and lost to the Demon Deacons. Their defense was poor for much of the first half as they allowed the Deacons to take a 20-point lead. There was certainly some bad luck as Wake Forest was unfathomably hot from 3, but Clemson still played below their standard.
Next, they hosted Florida State and they looked somewhat lost on offense. In key moments late in the game, they seemed flummoxed on what to do with the ball. Meanwhile, Florida State gave it to their star guard, Robert McCray, and rode him to a win. He scored 29. Once again, there was some back luck involved. The referees had an extremely quick whistle that favored the offense. Almost any contact on McCray was a foul on the defense. Once, McCray clearly extended his arm in what should have been a no-call or an offensive foul and it went his way. Another time, Ace Buckner was bulldozed with his feet set, but the call was blocking. Nevertheless, excuses fall on deaf ears when they’ve lost four in a row.
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Jestin Porter did not start the game, as Butta Johnson moved into the starting lineup. Butta came through with three huge 3-pointers. Although it doesn’t feel this way, Butta has a higher 3P% than Jestin so if that’s Jestin’s calling card and Butta gives you a better percentage there and more size, I get the change. Ace Buckner seems like Clemson’s best guard by a wide margin at this point. He played 32 minutes and led all Tigers with 15 points coming off the bench. He miss eda game-tying 3-pointer in the final seconds though. My only complaint with the performance is why they didn’t try some zone defense when man defense couldn’t stop McCray. The Tigers are currently slotted as a 9-seed and have two quad 1 games upcoming vs. Louisville and at UNC. They need to win one of them to avoid dropping onto the bubble.
8. North Carolina (Prev: 6, 9-5): With both Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar out, the Tar Heels got blown out by NC State. Veesaar returned for a comfortable win against Syracuse. If they suffer some late season losses without Caleb Wilson and then get him back for the tournament, they could be an under-seeded sleeper. They’re currently a 6-seed. I could see a healthy UNC squad beating an 11-seed like TCU or Missouri and then upseting a 3-seed like Kansas (who they already beat) or Nebraska.
7. Miami (Prev: 4, 10-4): Miami faced the two Virginia schools and split the pair with a close win over Virginia Tech and a close loss to Virginia. Tre Donaldson blew up for 32 points against Virginia Tech.
6. Florida State (Prev: 9, 7-7): Florida State is killing the ACC. Losses to UMass and Dayton in non-conference play marred their resume. They also started 0-5 in ACC play and were essentially eliminated from NCAA tournament contention (as an at-large) at that point. Since then they are 7-2. Their wins over Cal, Virginia Tech, and Clemson have hurt Clemson’s bubble teams. This week they beat Boston College and Clemson. Against Clemson, Robert McCray was outstanding. They simply ran iso and the Tigers had no answer. The Seminoles only had 9 assists on the night because it was a bit of a one-man show. They’re going to be a nightmare for someone in the ACC tournament.
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5. SMU (Prev: 8, 8-6): SMU picked up two home wins over Louisville and Boston College. The game against the Cardinals was a defense-optional shootout. The announcers were loving it, but I realized I enjoy a defensive affair. Mikel Brown had 29 points, but Boopie Miller countered with 27 and 9 assists. He was spectacular and Jaron Pierre had 31. SMU is now 8-8 against quad 1 and 2 and 11-0 against quad 3 and 4. They’re up to 30 in the Net and should be no worse than an 8-seed at the moment.
4. NC State (Prev: 7, 10-4): NC State blew out a shorthanded UNC and then had a rare weekend off. This was a good rebound from a historically bad showing against Louisville and continues their weird up-and-down profile.
3. Louisville (Prev: 3, 9-5): Louisville couldn’t get enough stops against SMU, but bounced back with an easy win over the zombie Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. They’re currently slotted as a 5-seed. Three of their last four games are quad 1 games. They could push themselves up.
2. Virginia (Prev: 2, 12-2): Virginia just keeps winning. They absolutely blasted Georgia Tech and then won yet another close game to knock off Miami. They played eight different guys and six of them had double-digit points. They are top 30 offensively and top 20 defensively. They are elite on the offensive glass and at blocking shots on defense. They’re very well-rounded. They don’t have a Cam Boozer or a Malik Brown, but they’re a great team. They actually remind me of Clemson, but with more talent.
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1. Duke (Prev: 1, 13-1): After an easy 37-point win against Syracuse, they went to Washington DC to face no. 1 Michigan. Both teams showed excellent team defense, but it was Duke who had a few more answers on offense. Duke may be the front-winner to win it all just a hair above Michigan, Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, and Florida.
