This story was excerpted from Ian Browne’s Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
And the first impression — Red Sox cleanup man Willson Contreras challenging a strike-three call and getting it overturned to a ball in the first inning of Saturday’s opener against the Twins — is something you likely won’t see in the regular season.
But for the early stages of Spring Training, it was exactly what Sox manager Alex Cora was looking for.
His message to his team these next few weeks? Challenge early and often.
This accomplishes a few things. First of all, most regulars are only in the game for a couple of at-bats early in camp. Secondly, the Sox have a barrage of key players leaving within the week to report to their World Baseball Classic squads. And lastly, Spring Training is the time to be aggressive with the ABS system to see what works and what doesn’t.
Each team gets two challenges per game, but challenges are retained if successful.
“We talked about it,” Cora said. “By the fifth inning, hopefully, we have no challenges. So if we do that, we did our job early on. I think at the end, the last week, you know, we’re going to transition to strategy.”
Mastering the ABS system once it starts in games that count on March 26 at Cincinnati is something Cora and his staff are taking very seriously in hopes of leveraging it into wins.
Two members of the analytics team, Dave Miller and Jaxon Mills, have researched the trends from Triple-A, where ABS challenges have been in place the past few seasons.
“We know a lot,” Cora said. “I think Dave and Jaxon have done an amazing job digging into the information, the data, and coming up with the strategy. The strike zone is going to be different, up-down. That’s something we have to get used to.
“We probably have to be very disciplined on top of the zone, which is something that we haven’t done the last few years — a lot of swing-and-misses there — but understanding now that that pitch might be a ball. It’ll be good for us to train the right way and start laying off those pitches.”
One thing that could benefit the Red Sox is their young nucleus of position players, led by emerging star Roman Anthony, who gained familiarity with ABS in the Minor Leagues. Renowned for his plate discipline, Anthony is a candidate to have a high success rate.
“I think it’s great for the game,” Anthony said. “It can change the game, for sure. I think when you have one late in the game, it can be huge. It keeps everyone in the game, all nine innings — pitcher, catcher, umpire, hitter. Everyone stays in the game knowing they have that extra challenge in their back pocket.”
When it comes to ABS, timing can be everything, from what Anthony saw in Triple-A.
“I think when you lose those two challenges early, I’ve seen it go the other way, where you’re late in the game, and you don’t have one, and the zone might open up. Somebody gets a call on the other side, you don’t have the ability to challenge anymore because you wasted them early,” Anthony said. “So I think they’re going to be a slept-on component of this game that people are going to realize how much they really matter once the regular season starts.”
As trends build, the Red Sox might encourage some hitters to challenge and others to keep it in their pocket.
“You have to dominate the strike zone [to challenge]. It’s not about what I think or the coaches,” Cora said. “The numbers will be there. If you chase and you chase out of the zone, there’s a good chance you’re not gonna challenge.”
Cora believes hitters with a 70 percent success rate or higher should be given more latitude to challenge. And on defense, Boston will leave it strictly in the hands of catchers Carlos Narváez and Connor Wong.
“I don’t think you’ll see us have a pitcher challenge all season,” Cora said.
