The loss to Duke was neither enjoyable nor completely surprising, but the only path forward for the Michigan Wolverines is to take it on the chin and move on. That defeat obviously had no bearing on the Big Ten title race, which was altered significantly by UCLA’s upset over Illinois Saturday night. Michigan now can go just 2-2 to finish the year and still claim an outright conference championship.
The schedule could not have been set up better for the Wolverines. A home date against the sub-.500 Minnesota Golden Gophers is both a palate cleanser and a straightforward chance to cross off one of the two remaining wins needed. This is the easiest game left — Kenpom gives Michigan a 97% win probability against its No. 72 team — though ask the Spartans what happens when taking a game against Minnesota for granted.
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Minnesota (13-14, 6-10) at No. 3 Michigan (25-2, 15-1)
Date & Time: Tuesday, Feb. 24, 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: Big Ten Network
MSU is not the only one to struggle against the Gophers, of course. The Wolverines have lost the last two of these head-to-heads including the overtime upset last season that caused a mini stumble in January after a 5-0 start to conference play. Michigan blew a double-digit lead and then fell victim to a logo buzzer beater in Minneapolis. That was arguably the worst loss of the year.
Two Stats to Watch
Minnesota Off. Block Rate: 14.4% (18th B1G)
The Gophers actually have the 7th-highest effective field goal rate in conference play, somewhat in part due to a top-5 three point affinity — over 50% of their shots come from behind the arc. Though they do lead the Big Ten in assist rate, Michigan will surely be on the lookout when it comes to three-point shooting; no one since Wisconsin has really lit it up in this department.
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If the Wolverines can force the visitors off the line, things could get interesting. Minnesota does happen to be 6th in two-point shooting in conference play, but even Duke failed to really excel in this area. It just is really hard to see how the Gophers get enough production on the interior to keep close, but if threes are hard to come by then there might not be another choice.
This could lead to some fireworks. No team in the Big Ten gets blocked as often as Minnesota (over 14% in conference play?!). Compound that with Michigan’s conference-leading 16.7% block rate and it might be a long night in the paint for the Gophers against the Wolverine bigs. If these blocks lead to transition looks the other way, it could get ugly.
Minnesota 2PT Defense: 55.5% (13th B1G)
Michigan has arguably only had one “elite” two-point shooting game in February — 77.4% against UCLA — but still sits top in the Big Ten at 60.9% in conference play. Unlike threes, which by nature ebb and flow significantly, including the risk of very cold nights (see: last Saturday), looks inside the arc have a steady consistency which can be used as a high-floor foundation.
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That should be the plan on Tuesday night, and really in pretty much every game. Against Minnesota specifically, there should be ample opportunities for the Wolverines to score on the interior. The visitors are below-average against twos in conference play, and over 50% of their opponents’ points come via this method. Michigan has the big size advantage and the numbers suggest this advantage is ripe to be exploited.
There are two things I would like to see that would help secure this bounce-back win. One is enough self-control to attack the rim instead of settling for threes, as was the temptation against Duke. While it is fun when they keep falling at will like against Purdue, Michigan is too good inside to keep passing up these opportunities. The second is Aday Mara evading foul trouble. Should the big man keep himself on the floor, there is a chance for a monster impact on both ends.
