The results of Saturday’s bracket preview show had barely cooled off before they were made nearly irrelevant by actual games. Sure, you knew that two of the top teams were guaranteed to take losses, with Arizona traveling to Houston and Michigan meeting Duke in Washington, D.C. And indeed, the Blue Devils’ win over the Wolverines vaulted them to the No. 1 overall spot—with the Selection Committee chair, Keith Gill, stressing the importance of head-to-head results at the top of the bracket when discussing why Iowa State got the fourth No. 1 seed over Houston—and the Wildcats remained on the top line after winning in the Fertitta Center.
As the day went on, four more of the Committee’s top 16 fell—most notably, the Cyclones, who lost at BYU. That cost them the final No. 1 seed in today’s bracket, and with Houston following the Arizona loss with another one at Kansas last night, that opened the door for UConn to jump back up to the top line. According to Gill, the Huskies had the fourth No. 1 seed until losing at home to Creighton on Wednesday night.
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Illinois lost at UCLA, a result that kept the Fighting Illini on the 2 line, while also giving the Bruins a little bit of breathing room above the Cut Line. As for the Jayhawks, the impact of their Monday win was blunted by Saturday’s home blowout loss to Cincinnati, who’s back in the at-large picture. That dropped Kansas to seed line 4, with Texas Tech their replacement on the 3 line. The Committee dropped the Red Raiders from a 3 to a 4 because of JT Toppin’s ACL tear, and they might very well fall back again if they struggle through a difficult closing stretch that begins with a home game with the Bearcats tonight. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, hangs on the 4 line despite losing a home game to Tennessee—a team the Commodores will meet again to close out the regular season.
The midweek TV preview follows today’s full bracket and rundown. If you want to check out today’s episode of College Basketball Coast to Coast, it’s now up right here, wherever you get your podcasts, and on YouTube.
ANNOUNCEMENT: On Wednesday afternoon, I will be answering your bracketology/bubble questions over at SBNation.com. AMA post will go live in the morning, and I will be hopping in during the mid-afternoon hours (Eastern time) to attempt to answer everything you throw at me.
NOTE: Changes since Friday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
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(1) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) Southeast Missouri (OVC)/Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)
(8) Kentucky
(9) UCF
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(5) St. John’s (Big East)
▲(12) High Point (Big South)
(4) Vanderbilt
▲(13) North Dakota State (Summit)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
▲(6) Saint Louis (A 10)
▼(11) Texas
(3) Texas Tech
(14) ETSU (SoCon)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Villanova
▲(10) UCLA
(2) Purdue
★(15) Utah Tech (WAC)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
▲(1) UConn
(16) UMBC (AE)/Howard (MEAC)
(8) Miami (Fla.)
▲(9) Georgia
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Alabama
(12) South Florida (AC)
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▼(4) Kansas
(13) Liberty (CUSA)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(6) Louisville
(11) Santa Clara/Missouri
(3) Nebraska
▲(14) Navy (Patriot)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(7) Utah State (MW)
(10) Indiana
(2) Houston
(15) Portland State (Big Sky)
(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
(16) LIU (NEC)
▲(8) Saint Mary’s
▼(9) Clemson
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Arkansas
(12) Belmont (MVC)
(4) Virginia
(13) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▲(6) North Carolina
★/★(11) TCU/California
(3) Florida
(14) Austin Peay (OVC)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▲(7) Wisconsin
(10) Texas A&M
(2) Iowa State
(15) Wright State (Horizon)
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(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
★(16) App State (Sun Belt)
▲(8) SMU
▼(9) Iowa
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Tennessee
(12) Yale (Ivy)
(4) Michigan State
(13) UNCW (CAA)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
(14) UC Irvine (Big West)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
▼(7) NC State
(10) Auburn
(2) Illinois
▲(15) Merrimack (MAAC)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Indiana, Auburn, UCLA, Texas
Last Four IN: Santa Clara, Missouri, TCU, California
First Four OUT: New Mexico, USC, Virginia Tech, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, West Virginia, San Diego State, VCU
On Deck: Seton Hall, Akron, Boise State, Nevada
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ARRIVALS (4): App State (Sun Belt), California, TCU Utah Tech (WAC)
DEPARTURES: Cal Baptist (WAC), Ohio State, Troy (Sun Belt), USC
There are two new at-larges today in Cal and TCU with Missouri sticking around despite losing to Arkansas on Saturday. USC dropped out following a last-minute home loss to Oregon, while Ohio State’s record against Quad 1 dropped to 0-9 following Sunday’s loss in East Lansing.
Conference Breakdown
SEC (11): Florida (auto bid), Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M, Auburn, Texas, Missouri (First Four)
ACC (9): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, NC State, Miami (Fla.), SMU, Clemson, California (First Four)
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Big Ten (9): Michigan (auto bid), Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, UCLA
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Iowa State, Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, UCF, TCU (First Four)
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s (auto bid), Villanova
WCC (3): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara (First Four)
25 one-bid conferences
Midweek Games to Watch
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All times are p.m. Eastern, unless noted.
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Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance with standout games in bold.
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Teams in the field are preceded by their seed number (1) to (16).
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Teams out of the bracket but still alive for an at-large are marked with an (OUT).
Tuesday
(7) NC State at (4) Virginia, 7 (ACCN)
(OUT) Cincinnati at (3) Texas Tech, 7 (ESPN2)
(OUT) West Virginia at (OUT) Oklahoma State, 7 (CBSSN)
(1) Duke at Notre Dame, 7 (ESPN)
(OUT) Wake Forest at Boston College, 7 (ESPNU)
Northwestern at (10) Indiana, 7 (FS1)
(7) Saint Louis at Dayton, 7 (FanDuel SN Midwest and Ohio/ESPN+ ($))
(8) Kentucky at South Carolina, 7 (SECN)
(11) Miami (Ohio) at Eastern Michigan, 6:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Buffalo at (OUT) Akron, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Louisiana at Troy, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Old Dominion at Marshall, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Southern Indiana at Morehead State, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
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I’ve already mentioned the importance of the game in Lubbock to both the Red Raiders’ protected seed and Bearcats’ at-large hopes, but there’s also a quasi-elimination game in the Big 12. Consecutive losses to Utah (at home) and TCU have seriously damaged West Virginia’s at-large hopes, while Oklahoma State is all but dead after dropping five straight. In the ACC, the Wolfpack travel to Charlottesville looking to get the win that Miami could not on Saturday.
Elsewhere, Miami University will look to remain perfect as the RedHawks travel to Ypsilanti, while second-place Akron will look to keep pace by topping Buffalo. There are also logjams in the Sun Belt and OVC to attempt to sort out. Currently, Morehead State, Southeast Missouri, and Tennessee State are tied for first in the Ohio Valley at 13-5, with UT Martin, who has led for most of the season, a game back. As for the Sun Belt …
Also …
Diabolical conference tournament formats lose their punch when there’s a traffic jam at the top of the standings—much like what happened last year.
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Oh, Conference Tournament Central for 2026 is live, speaking of unique tournament formats. The first game is a Horizon League play-in on Monday night. More on that as the time approaches.
(5) Tennessee at (11) Missouri, 9 (SECN)
(8) Miami (Fla.) at Florida State, 9 (ACCN)
Minnesota at (1) Michigan, 8:30 (BTN)
(1) Arizona at Baylor, 9 (ESPN2)
(2) Iowa State at Utah, 9 (FS1)
(10) Auburn at Oklahoma, 9 (ESPNU)
Arizona State at (11) TCU, 9 (CBSSN)
Portland at (3) Gonzaga, 9 (KHQ/ESPN+ ($))
Wyoming at (OUT) Boise State, 9 (MWN)
Mizzou really needs to defend its home floor tonight if it wants to hang around for Friday’s projection, while the Vols are knocking on the door of a protected seed—along with Alabama and Arkansas. In the ACC, keep an eye on the Seminoles. FSU is now 7-2 in its last nine, a run that started with a win in Coral Gables. With winnable games at Georgia Tech and Pitt, two teams who may not even make the ACC Tournament ahead of them, Luke Loucks’ 14-13 team might have quite a bit to play for when SMU visits to close the regular season.
(9) UCF at (6) BYU, 11 (ESPN2)
(OUT) USC at (10) UCLA, 11 (FS1)
(OUT) New Mexico at (OUT) Nevada, 11 (CBSSN)
The Knights and Cougars meet in a fascinating battle for seeding in Provo, while the Crosstown Showdown in L.A. and the Lobos’ trip to visit their Wolf Pack brethren both have serious bubble stakes. This is the first of two meetings between the Trojans and Bruins—they’ll meet again at the Galen Center to close the regular season. New Mexico will be looking to complete a season sweep of Nevada in Reno.
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Wednesday
(5) St. John’s at (1) UConn, 7 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
(9) Georgia at (4) Vanderbilt, 7 (SECN)
(3) Florida at (11) Texas, 7 (ESPN2)
Butler at (7) Villanova, 7 (FS1)
Maryland at (3) Nebraska, 7 (BTN)
(OUT) Tulsa at Tulane, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Evansville at (12) Belmont, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Wofford at (14) ETSU, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
(14) Navy at Loyola Maryland, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
(15) Wright State at Purdue Fort Wayne, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Detroit Mercy at Robert Morris, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Oakland at IU Indianapolis, 6:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Might the Huskies’ stay on the 1 line be temporary? They host the Red Storm sitting a game back in the Big East race with a third meeting looming in Manhattan on Selection Eve. In the SEC, the Bulldogs travel to Memorial Gym with the goal of getting out of an 8/9 game, while the Commodores’ protected seed hopes cannot afford another loss. The Longhorns welcome the Gators to the Moody Center for the first time—a win would do wonders for Texas’s hopes, while a loss could be damaging to Florida’s hopes of jumping up to the 2 line.
While Wright State leads the Horizon League race by two full games at 13-5, defending champ Robert Morris defeated the Raiders by 13 in Dayton on Sunday. The Colonials are one of three 11-7 teams heading into tonight, and RMU welcomes one of them, Detroit Mercy, to Moon Township. The third, Oakland, visits IU Indy, who is currently ticketed for the 10/11 game in the Horizon Tournament.
Pitt at (OUT) Stanford, 8 (ACCN)
(12) South Florida at Rice, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
ULM at South Alabama, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
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(10) Texas A&M at (5) Arkansas, 9 (ESPN2)
(OUT) Ohio State at (9) Iowa, 9 (BTN)
Mississippi State at (5) Alabama, 9 (SECN)
Kansas State at (OUT) Colorado, 9 (FS1)
UNLV at (OUT) Grand Canyon, 9 (CBSSN)
The Razorbacks host the Aggies looking to improve their top 16 chances, while the former SEC leaders are merely trying to stick around. A&M has picked up a pair of wins after a four-game skid, however. Then, there are the Buckeyes, who really need a Quad 1 win as they visit Iowa City.
(11) Santa Clara at (8) Saint Mary’s, 11 (CBSSN)
(7) Utah State at (OUT) San Diego State, 11 (FS1)
(8) SMU at (11) California, 10 (ACCN)
(7) Wisconsin at Oregon, 11 (BTN)
There are huge games on tap in the WCC, where the Broncos could really use an unlikely win in Moraga to stay in the field, and Mountain West, as the Aggies aren’t as safe as you’d expect a 7 seed to be. They really need to complete the season sweep of the Aztecs. In the ACC, it’s a matchup of newcomers, as the Golden Bears can also improve its hopes by taking down the visiting Mustangs.
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Thursday
(13) Liberty at Kennesaw State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Temple at Florida Atlantic, 7 (ESPN2)
(12) High Point at Presbyterian, 7 (ESPNU)
North Carolina A&T at (13) UNCW, 7 (FloHoops ($))
Chicago State at (16) LIU, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Bryant at (16) UMBC, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
UMass Lowell at Vermont, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
(16) Bethune-Cookman at Grambling, 5 (SWAC TV)
(4) Michigan State at (2) Purdue, 8 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Wichita State at Memphis, 9 (ESPN2)
Central Arkansas at (14) Austin Peay, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Morehead State at Little Rock, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Tennessee State at Southwest Missouri, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Tennessee Tech at UT Martin, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Western Illinois at SIUE, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
(13) North Dakota State at St. Thomas, 9 (KMSP-DT2/Summit League Network ($))
(15) Portland State at Montana State, 9 (SWX/ESPN+ ($))
Hawai’i at UC Davis, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
Abilene Christian at (16) Utah Tech, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
UT Arlington at Cal Baptist, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
UC Irvine at CSUN, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
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Thursday night’s schedule is mid-major-heavy as has become the case over the past few weeks, but there is a huge Big Ten showdown in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers are definitely not out of the top seed hunt, but they’ll need to defeat the Spartans, a team looking to get above the 4 line, to stay there.
My next full update will come on Friday.
