Another year’s All-Star festivities have come and gone, and now a particularly short second half is upon us. You know what that means — the race is on.
But before the regular season resumes on Friday, we may as well take stock of the season so far. Today we have one question in particular: where do our Rookie of the Year races stand?
In order to get a better idea, we asked 28 MLB.com experts to vote for their top five rookies in each league — with rookies receiving vote points on a 5-4-3-2-1 scale (five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on) — to get a better idea. Voters were asked to consider what each player has done so far and what they expect to see through the end of the season.
Three-for-three. Wilson remains the experts’ favorite AL rookie, hitting .332 (2nd in MLB) and leading all rookies with 2.9 fWAR. His defense at shortstop remains a shortcoming (his -10 defensive runs saved at short are the fewest in baseball), but his unbelievable bat-to-ball skills made him the first fan-elected rookie shortstop to start an All-Star Game and have him entering the second half with 28 strikeouts in 87 games played.
Kurtz appeared on a few ballots in the last poll, but the heater he’s been on has really changed our voters’ outlook on his season. He’s really settled in — from June 15 through the break, a span of 26 games, he had 12 home runs and a 1.122 OPS. On the year that gives him 17 homers, plus 44 RBIs, a .558 slugging percentage and a 143 OPS+. He’s still doing a lot of swinging and missing, but he barrels the ball up with the best of them — which is the Aaron Judge profile.
If Wilson and Kurtz were to finish 1 and 2 in Rookie of the Year voting — in either order, because this seems like an evolving situation — they’d be the 9th set of teammates to do so and the first in the American League since 1984 Mariners teammates Alvin Davis and Mark Langston.
The main piece of the return for Kyle Tucker and a brand new addition to the top five, Smith has been pretty steady while operating mostly in the background. Through the end of the first half he’s sitting pretty, slashing .277/.347/.418 (113 OPS+) with seven home runs. He’s also making good use of his speed in the outfield, tied for 10th among qualifying outfielders with 8 DRS.
A low-key transaction brought this longtime Yankees farmhand to Boston, and at this point, he’s become truly indispensable to the Red Sox. An excellent all-around defender, NarvĂĄez, like a lot of catchers out of New York’s system, has a gift for pitch framing, but he’s also tied with Patrick Bailey for the most CS Above Average (7), and is currently hitting .273 with eight home runs and an above-average 118 OPS+.
Anthony sticks at No. 5 for the second straight poll, sliding in just ahead of the Yankees’ Jasson DomĂnguez and the Royals’ Noah Cameron, who’ve both been impressive of late. The best summary of Anthony’s very brief season is probably “so far, so good” — he’s hitting the ball hard and limiting chases, which has him boasting a .371 on-base percentage (3rd-highest among rookies with at least 100 PA) and a 117 OPS+.
Others receiving votes: Jasson DomĂnguez (Yankees), Noah Cameron (Royals; 1 1st-place vote), Will Warren (Yankees), Chandler Simpson (Rays), Jac Caglianone (Royals), Shane Smith (White Sox), Denzel Clarke (Aâs), Jack Leiter (Rangers), Jake Mangum (Rays), Mike Vasil (White Sox)
Based on his first career start, Misiorowski got one first-place vote a month ago. Now at five, and coming off an All-Star selection, he’s shot all the way to the top. It’s early, yes, but after seeing what Paul Skenes did last year, our voters were probably even more inclined to quickly buy into what Misiorowski is doing. If you subtract his one clunker — a five-run, 3 2/3 IP outing against the Mets on July 2 — he’s otherwise gone 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.68 WHIP and struck out 31 of the 79 batters he’s faced (39.2%), and tiny as that sample size is, an arm this electric is impossible to ignore.
While the majority of our voters are convinced, several others (understandably) need to see more from Misiorowski before moving him up their ballots, while Baldwin, who led our last two polls, is more of a known entity. And this was close, with Misiorowski at 122 overall points and Baldwin at 111. Baldwin’s bat speed continues to impress while his work behind the plate has remained perfectly serviceable, but he slowed down at the plate in June, hitting just .200 (11-for-55) with a .741 OPS. The good news is that he’s already 8-for-29 in July, so the bounce back is already in progress.
The main piece of the return for Jazz Chisholm Jr. — also a catcher out of the Yankees’ system — RamĂrez hasn’t impressed with his defense, but in his capacity as a slugging DH he has been a huge asset to the Marlins’ lineup. He entered the break hitting .242 with 20 doubles and 14 homers.
Kim dropped two spots from our last poll, but that can largely be attributed to the increasing quality of his competition. He’s sticking well to his strengths, adding a ton of value via his baserunning ability, maintaining a .339 average (although he only has nine total extra-base hits, compared to 11 stolen bases), and he’s been versatile, playing 28 games at second, 16 in center, and eight at short. Something to watch: with KikĂ© HernĂĄndez recently hitting the IL with an elbow injury, he’s less of a role player — he only played six complete games in June but had seven through the Dodgers’ first 12 games in July.
Patrick’s keeping a low profile and probably will continue to now that Misiorowski is on the scene. There’s much less flash to Patrick, but he’s getting the job done — he came into the break with a 3.52 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 95 strikeouts in 94 2/3 innings, a bit of a walk problem but nothing he hasn’t managed.
Others receiving votes: Liam Hicks (Marlins), Chase Burns (Reds), Caleb Durbin (Brewers), Isaac Collins (Brewers), Brad Lord (Nationals), Jack Dreyer (Dodgers), Caleb Horton (Cubs), Ronny Mauricio (Mets)
