Can Poirier close career in New Orleans with BMF title and third win over Holloway?
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3 prediction | UFC 318 breakdown
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 318 main event.
Dan Tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 318 main event trilogy rematch between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier.
Max Holloway UFC 318 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 26-8 MMA, 22-8 UFC
- Height: 5’11” Age: 33 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 69″
- Last fight: Knockout loss to Ilia Topuria (Oct. 26, 2024)
- Camp: Gracie Technics/Legacy Muay Thai (Hawaii)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- BMF belt holder
- Former UFC featherweight champion
- Regional MMA titles
- Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
- 12 KO victories
- 2 submission wins
- 3 first-round finishes
- Building pace and pressure
- Solid feints and footwork
- Excellent shot selection
- ^ Variates well to the body
- Deceptively counters clinches
- ^ Strikes well off of the breaks
- Underrated ground game
- ^ Slick submissions in transition
- +/- 1-3 against UFC-level southpaws
- +/- 1-2 in career remtaches
- +/- 0-1 in trilogy fights
Dustin Poirier UFC 318 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 30-9 MMA, 32-8 UFC
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 36 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Submission loss to Islam Makhachev (June 1, 2024)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Kickboxing
Supplemental info:
- Former interim UFC lightweight champion
- Regional MMA titles
- Amateur MMA accolades
- Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- Thug-jitsu disciple
- 15 KO victories
- 8 submission wins
- 13 first-round finishes
- KO power
- Aggressive pace and pressure
- Improved overall boxing
- ^ Cage-cuts, shifts, takes angles
- Accurate left cross and right hook
- ^ Coming forward or off the counter
- Strong inside the clinch
- Good transitional grappler
- ^ Solid submissions and scrambling
- +/- 3-1 in career rematches
- +/- 1-0 in trilogy fights
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier point of interest: Third times the charm?
The main event for UFC 318 features a trilogy fight for the BMF belt between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier.
Holloway, who suffered his first professional loss to Poirier in his UFC debut back in 2012, will fittingly have a chance to get one back over “The Diamond” in what will be the former UFC interim lightweight champion’s final UFC fight.
These two also put on an instant classic in their rematch, which took place at UFC 236, but even that fight feels like it happened ages ago, with each combatant continuing to evolve throughout their careers.
Holloway, for instance, has made significant progress since his initial encounter with Poirier.
Displaying solid striking and footwork fundamentals since storming onto the UFC scene (as one of the promotion’s youngest signees, no less), Holloway, who was already improving from fight to fight, turned a big corner in his career after his encounter with Cub Swanson.
Since then, we have witnessed a technical evolution unfold from the Hawaiian, who embraces his creativity and range with a diverse arsenal of attacks. Whether Holloway is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, the former featherweight kingpin makes for a hard read on the feet.
When feeling in stride, the 33-year-old looks to pay off his previous bodywork by punctuating his presence with everything from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled with his ability to counter effectively from either stance, Holloway can hypothetically take a fight in many different directions.
That said, it is the building nature of the champion’s game that makes him stand out from the rest of the UFC stable.
Embodying a fighter archetype that I like to refer to as “a builder,” Holloway will not only build on his output, but his understanding of the fight’s traffic will also increase as he intelligently takes tools from his opponent and incorporates them into his game.
Nevertheless, offensive volume – no matter how clever – comes with a price.
Enter Poirier.
An aggressive fighter out of the chute, the 16-year pro from Louisiana has evolved from the once eager slugger to a more mature fighter who likes to dictate brawls rather than enter them. In fact, Poirier has made significant upgrades to his game since moving shop to American Top Team in South Florida.
Demonstrating an excellent awareness of distance and footwork, the slugging southpaw will shift his stance for setups (often doubling up on strikes from the same side) as he adjusts his angles accordingly with fight-ending shots in mind.
Utilizing this style of shifting to create attack opportunities, Poirier has shown to sit down more on his punches, giving five fighters their first stoppage losses since returning to 155 pounds. The 36-year-old also displays improvements to his prodding, pulling and returning, but will likely need to mind the underrated kicking propensities of his opponent.
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering the potential for chaos on the feet, no one should be shocked if this party hits the floor.
Although ground assaults aren’t necessarily the preferred method of offense for either fighter, Poirier is the man who is more likely to shoot takedowns on paper.
Under the care of American Top Team, we have seen Poirier steadily improve his wrestling skills. He shows competent level-changing abilities in the open, but arguably does his best takedown work when he is able to corral his opponents against the cage.
Defensively, Poirier has quietly sharpened up his sprawls while maintaining an impressive ability to scramble in the heat of battle. Even though Poirier still selects escapes that come with their fair share of exposure, the Thug-jitsu disciple thrives in reversal scenarios.
An excellent transitional grappler, Poirier can make hay from many positions and is not afraid to hold from topside while pouring on the punishment. Whether he is baiting submissions to pass or using an underhook to dictate position, Poirier will likely have to work extra hard if he means to control a slippery fighter like Holloway.
Holloway’s superb striking may hallmark a large part of his brand, but the Hawaiian has quietly made consistent improvements to his counter grappling, maintaining an impressive 83 percent takedown defense rate. Even when having his takedown defense tested by some of the best wrestlers at featherweight, Holloway has been able to snuff out a large majority of the shots sent his way (even smoothly re-wrestling his way to ride positions of his own on occasion).
Not only does Holloway display the balance and defense to stuff takedowns, but he also shows an excellent awareness of how to conduct his hips and grips in close. Deceptively hand-fighting to counter clinches and grappling efforts, Holloway demonstrates a knack for striking off the breaks, something that could be worth watching for in this fight.
More importantly, whether Holloway is conducting himself from the clinch or inside the chaos of transition, he has always prioritized protecting his neck and head by either maintaining an upright posture in close or keeping his hands in the proper neighborhood to defend grasps.
Even back in his controversially scored loss to Dennis Bermudez, Holloway showed the defensive habits of defending chokes (that often weren’t coming his way) in transit, which tells me that this habit is deeply hardwired into his system. Still, I’m not sure that will be enough to dissuade Poirier from jumping to his patented Guillotine attempts, if given the chance.
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier odds
The oddsmakers and the public are slightly favoring the Hawaiian fighter, listing Holloway -122 and Poirier -104 via FanDuel.
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier prediction, pick
Despite it feeling weird not to see Poirier favored to win a fight that he’s already won twice before, there are some interesting caveats attached to their first two encounters that could challenge the statistical superiority that “The Diamond” carries into this contest.
Aside from both fights taking place over half a decade ago, Holloway had shortened training camps in each effort due to some booking fallouts for the UFC. And though both fighters have improved since their rematch in 2019, I believe that Holloway is the competitor who has improved more.
As I pointed out before his immortalized knockout over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300, Holloway’s striking, particularly his kicks and counters off the backfoot, have been extra potent since his last loss to Alexander Volkanovski.
Even in this latter stage of Holloway’s striking evolution that sees him sitting down harder on his punches and kicks alike, the 33-year-old still shows good reactions in the heat of the fire and is prompt about getting back on the clock in regards to circling back to the center and resetting.
That said, Holloway will undeniably be playing with fire if he outfights around the inner-black octagon lines against some like Poirier, who – akin to his last opponent Ilia Topuria – can make anyone pay for flirting in their preferred kill zone.
However, when going back to look at Holloway’s recent fights outside of his last loss (although he did much better than Topuria than many might remember), you can see that – for whatever success his opponent had pushing him backward – the Hawaiian legend was able to answer right back with even more impactful blows, continuing his career-long theme of looking better the more aggressive his opposition get.
Whether Holloway is unleashing counter hooks (from either side) or is intercepting opponents with stupidly accurate spinning assaults, the Waianae native has proven to have many answers for pressure up his proverbial sleeve. Holloway has even gotten better at using everything from double-hand traps to crafty clinch frames and tactics to help further stymie the pressure coming his way.
And though Holloway’s chin was finally cracked in this previous outing, the 15-year pro continues to demonstrate stellar defensive adjustments on the fly (as seen below in the way in which he’s immediately able to slip and circle off the very same attacks that previously cleaned his clock just moments prior).
Still, I can’t help but wonder where Holloway’s head and durability are after finally hitting the canvas and being stopped by strikes last year. Should Holloway harbor any issues when it comes to absorbing strikes, Poirier will be the fighter to snuff it out.
Holloway may be the more improved and seasoned fighter at this stage of their careers, but the stylistic dynamic that I laid out in my breakdown of their rematch back in 2019 remains largely in play.
The builder, Holloway, will still have the tough challenge of framing out his game before Poirier can demolish his progress with power punches and counters that force the former featherweight champ to rebuild over and over again. Poirier has proven that he can navigate through wars that primarily take place on the feet, so I expect the Louisiana native to pace himself properly in order to hang with Holloway should this fight go long again.
The potential problem, however, is that I’m not sure I see this battle going the full 25 minutes this time around.
Even when looking at their last fight, there were multiple moments on both sides where it looked like it was over – and I’m not sure either man can survive said moments on this stage of their careers. Add in the fact that rematches and trilogy fights alike seldom go the same way in MMA, and I find myself siding with Holloway this Saturday.
Poirier is one of my favorite fighters and he deserves to go out on a win, but with MMA being the cruel bitch that it is, I’ll be officially picking Holloway to pour it on down the stretch and pick up a club-and-sub in the form of Poirier’s patented guillotine choke come Round 4.
Prediction: Holloway inside the distance
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier start time, how to watch
As the main event, Holloway and Poirier are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.
