Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov meet Saturday in the co-feature of UFC 318 at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.
Last event: 4-2
UFC main cards, 2025: 68-50-1
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov UFC 318 preview
Costa (14-4 MMA, 6-4 UFC) will look to end a recent rough stretch of 1-4, including back-to-back losses. Costa’s last win came against Luke Rockhold at UFC 278 in August 2022. Since then, he lost consecutive decisions to former champions Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland. … Conversely, Kopylov (14-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC) has been doing well, although his competition hasn’t been as stiff. He enters as the winner of his last two fights. Last June, Kopylov won a split decision over Cesar Almeida and then stopped Chris Curtis in the third round in January.
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov UFC 318 expert pick, prediction
The co-main event in Louisiana features a middleweight showdown between Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov.
Despite initially leaning toward the favorite on first glance, I ended up siding with the underdog after further delving into past notes and fight footage.
Even though I’ve been impressed by Kopylov’s southpaw savvy, the Russian tends to harbor some terrible optics that stem from his suspect gas tank.
Should Costa find his way back to a more front-foot pressure game, then that could pose some problems for Kopylov’s staying power considering how hard “Borrachinha” works the body.
Aside from being a much more skilled and nuanced striker than he’s given credit for, the majority of Costa’s UFC wins come against southpaws, officially standing at 5-1 in this department.
Anything involving Costa will always feel risky, so I’ll bite the bullet and back the Brazilian to win, likely by decision.
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov UFC 318 odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Russian fighter, listing Kopylov -230 and Costa +184 via FanDuel.
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov UFC 318 start time, how to watch
As the co-main event, Costa and Kopylov are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 11:40 p.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on ESPN and ESPN+.
