The July 31 Trade Deadline is mere days away, meaning the pennant race is in full swing.
With every team recently crossing the 100-game threshold, we’re beginning to have a good sense of which teams will make the playoffs, but there is still plenty to be determined in the coming months.
Which clubs are in? Which clubs are out? Which teams are on the outside looking in? Here’s a look at how it would all shake out if the postseason began today.
(Here’s a refresher on playoff tiebreakers, which were used to determine this postseason outlook.)
Byes: Blue Jays (1) and Astros (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Red Sox (6) at Tigers (3)
Mariners (5) at Yankees (4)
Just missed: Rangers (1/2 game out of WC spot), Rays (1 1/2 games)
It’s July 26, and the Blue Jays have the best record in baseball. Seriously. It’s the latest into the season the Blue Jays have had the best record since Aug. 1992, the year Toronto won the first of two straight World Series titles. Even in the context of the unpredictability of baseball, what the Blue Jays are doing is pretty astounding.
With the Tigers losing 11 of their last 12 games, the battle for the top spot(s) in the American League has drastically shifted. After entering the month with the best record in baseball, Detroit finds itself in a tight race with the Astros — who are vying for a ninth straight playoff appearance — the aforementioned Blue Jays squad. Only 2 1/2 games separate these three teams, so this race is far from over.
While it’s unclear which of those teams — or other dark horse teams — will take one of the top spots, what is clear is they’re each in a good position to make the playoffs. According to the FanGraphs playoff odds, Detroit, Toronto and Houston have better than a 90 percent chance to reach the postseason and strong odds to win their division.
Meanwhile, the AL Wild Card picture is starting to become more interesting The Yankees have a strong hold on the top Wild Card spot, it’s less certain for the Mariners and Red Sox. There are only two games separating the Mariners, Red Sox, Rangers and Rays, with the latter two teams right on the heels of Seattle and Boston.
Mariners (5) or Yankees (4) at Blue Jays (1)
Red Sox (6) or Tigers (3) at Astros (2)
The Blue Jays are in unchartered territory with the best record in the Majors. Toronto has never led the Majors in wins and has only truly come close on one occasion, when the Blue Jays won 99 games in 1985, just behind the 101-win Cardinals. The Blue Jays are also a commanding 5 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees, putting them on track for their first division title since 2015.
Even with their recent struggles, the Tigers have proven they’re one of the top teams in baseball. The Astros, despite moving on from Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman offseason and dealing with a surplus of injuries this year, once again find themselves on track to make the playoffs and possibly get a first-round bye.
Byes: Brewers (1) and Dodgers (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Just missed: Giants and Reds (one game out of WC spot)
Whereas we have a good idea of who the top three teams in the American League could be, that is not the case for the Senior Circuit. Only two games separate the No. 1 seed Brewers and the No. 5 seed Phillies, while the Dodgers are the only team in that group with a comfortable division lead. Those five teams have a better than 90 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs — we just don’t have a good idea of how the seeding will line up.
The Brewers are the main reason why the NL playoff picture has changed so much. After a sluggish start, Milwaukee has gone off with a 30-14 record since the beginning of June, the second-best record in the Majors during that time. The Cubs looked like a strong bet to win the NL Central for much of the first half but that changed in a heartbeat.
Next up behind the No. 5 seed Phillies are the Padres, who are well behind the top five teams in the NL — San Diego is 4 1/2 games behind Philadelphia. San Diego has not played great baseball after a strong start, but no other team has played well enough to surpass the Padres yet. Their hold on the final Wild Card isn’t strong, however, as the Giants and Reds are just a game behind.
Phillies (5) or Cubs (4) at Brewers (1)
Padres (6) or Mets (3) at Dodgers (2)
At this point, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will grab the top two spots in the National League — it’s too close and there’s far too many games to project who will come out on top. There are legitimate reasons to buy what each of those teams are doing, and it’s going to make for an eventful finish.
With that in mind, if the Brewers do come out on top, it’d be the first time they’ve led the senior circuit in wins since winning 96 games in 2018. For the Dodgers, they’re in a familiar spot, as they led the Majors in wins last year and have consistently been near the top of the league for the last decade.
Who’s out from last year?
Braves, Guardians, Orioles, Royals
It’s still hard to comprehend how much the Braves and Orioles have played below expectations, even accounting for injuries. Those clubs were viewed as excellent preseason bets to make the playoffs, especially in the case of the Braves. In the case of the Guardians and Royals, both AL Central teams have never really gotten going this season.
Blue Jays, Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox
The Cubs, Mariners and Red Sox looked like good playoff bets before the season, but the Blue Jays have been one of the true surprises of the season. The fact that they’re not just in a playoff position but also own baseball’s best record is pretty remarkable.
