It’s August, which means it’s the beginning of the stretch run. The Home Run Derby, All-Star Game and Trade Deadline have passed, and playoff implication-laden baseball is taking center stage.
It might feel like if a team isn’t in playoff position right now, it could be time to be worried. But is that true? For teams hoping to win the division, it’s definitely getting close to crunch time.
Let’s take a look at what it means to be in first place in a division entering August and what the playoff field may look like. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place (or not be there)
Since 1996 — the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league — 122 of 168 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering Aug. 1. That’s 73 percent of division winners.
Take note, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Mets, Brewers and Dodgers fans — those are the teams that currently lead their divisions.
Last season, five of the six division leaders on Aug. 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Guardians and Astros (who led by percentage points) each won their divisions, while the Orioles, who led the AL East by half a game entering August, made the postseason as a Wild Card. In the NL, the Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers all led entering August and won their divisions.
Since 1996, 18 of the 28 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering August. The Dodgers did so last year.
If you were wondering, there have been four seasons in this span where all six division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering Aug. 1: 1996-97, ’99 and 2019.
This year’s leaders
Of this year’s current division leaders entering August, three last did so as recently as last year: the Astros, Brewers and Dodgers. The Mets last led entering August in 2022 and the Tigers in 2014. The Blue Jays? They last led entering August in 1993, when they were tied with the Yankees atop the AL East at that point.
The Astros, Brewers and Dodgers each won their divisions last season. The Mets and Blue Jays last won theirs in 2015 and the Tigers in ’14.
What’s next
October is quickly drawing closer, but there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. Fans of the six division leaders can take some comfort in knowing that historically, almost three quarters of those teams have gone on to win their divisions. And for fans of teams that aren’t in playoff position, there’s still plenty of hope — while 73% of these teams go on to win their divisions, that means 27% do not, too.
Now, we all get the joy of watching and seeing what happens.
