The NASCAR schedule this weekend takes us to Watkins Glen International for races in the Truck Series, Xfinity Series, and Cup Series. There are now just three regular-season races left before the Cup Series playoffs, and the NASCAR standings are as tight as ever. It’s now time to focus on the upcoming race on Sunday.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR predictions for Watkins Glen International, ranging from who takes the pole position and each stage to the Go Bowling at The Glen winner. We’ll try to make it consecutive weeks predicting the race winner.
Shane van Gisbergen wins the pole at Watkins Glen
Shane van Gisbergen is inevitable on road courses. As a part-time driver with Kaulig Racing in 2024, SVG finished second at Watkins Glen after qualifying third. This season is demonstrating that he’s working with even better equipment at Trackhouse Racing, and it feels like he’s still holding himself back a bit on road courses.
SVG has won the pole position in the last three road-course races this year, including a 0.47-second advantage at the Chicago Street Race and a 0.25-second advantage at Sonoma Raceway. We expect that dominance to continue on Sunday, resulting in his fourth pole of the season. Doing just that would move him past William Byron (17) for the third-most playoff points.
Related: Insane Shane van Gisbergen Stats from his Road Course Dominance
Tyler Reddick Clinches a Playoff Spot
Leading off our NASCAR predictions for Watkins Glen, it’s Tyler Reddick clinching his playoff spot. To be clear, the driver of the No. 45 car isn’t expected to win Sunday’s race. However, Reddick (673 points) enters Sunday 122 points above the cutline, holding onto the first points-eligible playoff spot. With only three regular-season races remaining, we’re predicting there won’t be a new winner this weekend. That would leave just two races left, meaning Reddick is locked into the playoffs.
Related: Tyler Reddick Landing Spots if He Leaves 23XI Racing
Alex Bowman wins Stage 1
Making NASCAR picks this late in the year has to account for a lot of factors. Watkins Glen International is a track where teams either go after points or go all-out for the win, with the latter sacrificing stage results. Drivers who don’t have a chance of clinching a playoff spot on points will be focused on going for the win. Bowman is in the right spot to focus on points. There’s a very real shot we get one new winner in the next three races, which would put Bowman right above the cut line and Chris Buescher (40 points behind Bowman) below the line. So, the No. 48 team should prioritize the points on this road course. We’re picking Bowman to take Stage 1 and finish in the top 10 in Stage 2, positioning himself in an even better spot for the final two weeks to make it in on points.
Related: Hendrick Motorsports Eyeing Top Prospect for Full-Time Ride
Joey Logano takes home Stage 2
William Byron won Stage 2 in 2023 at Watkins Glen and then went on to reach victory lane. However, that was the first time since 2019 that a stage winner also won the race. Perhaps Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) can become only the second-ever Cup driver to do it in the Next Gen era, but we see things playing out a bit differently. Joey Logano won here in 2015, but stage wins have been his primary success in the Next Gen car. That trend continues on Sunday afternoon, with Logano earning both his third stage win of the season and his third at Watkins Glen since 2021. It will help him amid a tight battle with Chase Briscoe and Bubba Wallace, with the trio currently locked in a three-way tie in playoff points (seven).
A.J. Allmendinger finishes fifth
A.J. Allmendinger finds himself in a must-win situation, so Kaulig Racing won’t be going for points on Sunday. Fortunately, the driver of the No. 16 car has an excellent track record on road courses. In the Next Gen era, Allmendinger has the 10th-highest average finishing position (15.3) among drivers with 20-plus races on road courses. That number would be even higher if a transmission issue last season hadn’t ended his day early after he qualified sixth. Allmendinger has also driven well in the last two weeks, only for other cars to run into him and wipe out consecutive races where he qualified ninth. A season-best performance is coming Sunday.
Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin finish in top 5, Chris Buescher out
Road courses haven’t exactly been a specialty for Denny Hamlin, but Watkins Glen is an exception. The future Hall of Famer boasts the second-most top 5s (six) among active Cup Series drivers at WGI and we’re predicting that he’ll tie Kyle Busch (seven) for the active lead after Sunday. As for Kyle Larson, he won here in consecutive years (2021-22), but hasn’t finished inside the top 10 in the last two seasons despite having good stage finishes. The No. 5 car will get back in rhythm this weekend, finishing ahead of Hamlin in the top five.
As for Chris Buescher, Sunday afternoon will be a frustrating one. After punching his playoff ticket here last season, he finds himself in an identical situation one year later. Unfortunately for the No. 17, it comes with a strategy that doesn’t generate stage points. This time around, though, the car isn’t right and some issues prevent him from even cracking the top five.
Read More: NASCAR Horsepower Increase Sought by Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson Likely Coming
Shane van Gisbergen wins the Go Bowling at The Glen
We’re simply not picking against SVG on a road course; he’s too dominant. What he’s done this season feels reminiscent of Michael Jordan in the playoffs—he is just multiple tiers above the competition. Besides, wins still matter for SVG because those five playoff points and a fourth victory would put him neck-and-neck with Hamlin among the playoff points leaders. That kind of positioning almost guarantees he advances through the Round of 16, and making it to the Round of 12 means he gets to race at the ROVAL. The incentives of winning, paired with his talent, make him our pick.
