Something remarkable happened on Wednesday morning: We all woke up to ties atop two different divisions. In the American League West, an Astros loss and a Mariners win brought those teams even; in the National League West, a Dodgers loss and a Padres win did the same thing.
We all want some tight divisional races this time of year, but to have two divisions tied midway through August is a bountiful harvest indeed.
Both divisions are fascinating in their own right. The Mariners are trying to win their first division title since 2001; the Astros have won the division in every full season since ’17. The Padres, meanwhile, have spent the last half-decade trying to chase down the Dodgers, both during the regular season and the postseason; their aggression at the Trade Deadline was a clear sign that they think this is the year.
Who’s going to end up winning these divisions? Which teams should we feel most optimistic about? Here’s a reason for hope and a reason for concern for each team … and, at the end, an actual prediction for how this might all turn out.
All stats entering Wednesday.
Reason for hope: The offense is finally doing its part
The Mariners have been carried by their rotation for a few years now, with a cadre of starting pitchers that was the envy of most of the rest of baseball. It also was a constant source of frustration that the team couldn’t put together an offense that was worthy of it. That’s not a problem now.
Cal Raleigh may well be on his way to winning an AL MVP Award, but the key is that this lineup finally has some depth. Julio Rodríguez is in the midst of his annual July/August surge, Randy Arozarena has the second-most homers in the Majors since June 30 and the Deadline additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez lengthened the lineup in way we haven’t seen Seattle do in quite some time. The Mariners can now outslug you, ranking fourth in the Majors in homers and fifth in park-adjusted OPS+. That’s new. And that’s very exciting.
Reason for concern: Doesn’t it feel like we’ve seen this before?
I’d have to go back into my archives to know for sure, but I’m pretty certain I — and many, many other baseball observers — have said something like, “The Mariners look poised to make a run!” multiple times over the past decade … and they rarely make a run. This might be the best Mariners team since those early Ichiro teams, but they are still the Mariners: There’s a lot of history of this team falling short.
They’re on a hot streak right now, but historically, those hot streaks tend to be followed up, sometimes in short measure, by losing skids. Mariners fans want to believe in this team. But they have believed in previous teams … and been burned for it. There’s a reason many have considered Seattle the team of the future in this division for a few years. But we need, at some point, to actually see it.
Reason for hope: They’re still in it, despite everything
It’s sort of absurd that the Astros are even in position to fight for first place in the AL West at all. They lost Alex Bregman to free agency and traded Kyle Tucker in the offseason. Their entire rotation has spent time on the injured list at some point. Star shortstop Jeremy Peña missed more than a month with a left rib fracture. Star third baseman Isaac Paredes went down with a right hamstring strain in late July. And perhaps most significantly, Yordan Alvarez, their best hitter, hasn’t taken an at-bat in the big leagues since May 2 as he deals with a right hand injury.
In other words, this team probably shouldn’t even be in the race. And yet here they still are. There are positives here, too. Cristian Javier looked good in his return from Tommy John surgery. Peña has come back strong in August, to go with a resurgent Christian Walker (.855 OPS since July 1) and the newly reacquired Carlos Correa has brought improved vibes and big production (.364 with two homers in 11 games). Alvarez might even be back by the end of the month. If he does, the middle of this lineup will regain a huge presence.
Reason for concern: Are we sure they have enough?
What was so impressive about the Astros’ first-half run was that they were able to do it despite missing so many vital pieces from the teams that won all those division titles. But those losses have started to make themselves more acutely felt in the second half. Even with the additions of Correa and Jesús Sánchez, that lineup looks a little bit light. Not only are we still not entirely sure when Alvarez is going to be back, but there’s no telling how long it will take him to return to MVP-level form … or if he even will at all. Paredes could be out for the season. The same goes for the rotation, which is thin at the back, despite Javier’s return. And the latest Astros injury, a left shoulder strain for closer Josh Hader, is a “punch in the gut.”
Honestly, when you look at the Astros’ roster and compare it to that of the Mariners, for the first time in a decade, Seattle just looks stronger top to bottom. That doesn’t mean Houston can’t sneak out ahead down the stretch. But it’s not necessarily the most likely outcome.
Prediction: Mariners win the AL West … and end up facing the Astros in the best-of-three AL Wild Card Series.
Reason for hope: They’re the Dodgers
That’s pretty simple and basic … but it’s also pretty true. This team features Shohei Ohtani having another historic season. Will Smith, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy are raking. Mookie Betts is starting to finally look like himself over the last month.
The rotation, which is finally getting healthy, is looking the way the Dodgers always thought it would. (I mean, would you want to face Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Ohtani in a short series?) The Dodgers are loaded. They’re the Dodgers. We’re still talking about the Dodgers here.
Reason for concern: The vibes are off
As the great baseball newsletter The Bandwagon noted this week, the Dodgers have been losing games lately in a fashion that can’t help but make you concerned. Ohtani’s hitting into triple plays, the bullpen’s blowing lead after lead, and the defense looks wobbly and, let’s face it, kind of old. Vibes can always turn on a dime, of course — and a lot of times “bad vibes” is just another term for “bad bullpen” — but honestly, hasn’t it all just felt a little bit off for the Dodgers since the start of his season?
Even a mostly idling Los Angeles team can still be one of the best in baseball, but there is nothing dominant about this club right now. And it was supposed to be dominant. Are we sure the Dodgers will pull it together in time?
Reason for hope: They’re doing the little things
The Padres, with all their high-profile additions of the past few years, have earned a reputation as a team that’s loaded with stars but a little thin at the back of the roster. But they’ve been winning a lot of close games lately, and that’s largely because of contributions they’re getting up and down that roster.
The bullpen — bolstered at the Deadline — has been a shutdown unit, guys like Human Vibes Machine Jose Iglesias are hitting clutch homers and the return of Michael King to the rotation (and a recent resurgence from Yu Darvish) has lengthened the team across the board. The Padres have many different ways to win games right now. Which is probably why they’re winning so many of them.
Reason for concern: They haven’t done it before
Can you believe, even with all the success the Padres have had over the past half-decade, that this is the latest in a season that they have enjoyed at least a share of first place since 2010? The Padres are forever chasing the Dodgers, and other than that NL Division Series in 2022, they’ve never been able to actually catch them. Their last division title came under Bruce Bochy in 2006.
When you put these teams head to head, even with San Diego’s recent charge, Los Angeles still does seem to be a little better: worse in the bullpen but better everywhere else, even in the rotation, now that the Dodgers’ rotation is almost entirely healthy. You might disagree with that assessment, but the good news is that we get to find out: Starting on Friday, these teams get to play each other six times in 10 days. That’s a head-to-head matchup.
Prediction: The Dodgers just hang on … and we see these teams in an NL Championship Series for the ages.
