By Richard Pagliaro | Thursday, August 21, 2025
Photo credit: Jon Buckle/ROLEX
NEW YORK—Aryana Sabalenka scaled major mental mountains beating back Jessica Pegula and the American crowd to claim her maiden US Open crown last September.
The 2025 US Open draw pops with challenging crests for the world No. 1 in her title defense.
The draw was revealed today. Here are our top takeaways.
Draw Winners
(2) Iga Swiatek (POL)
Swiatek’s strong title run in the Queen City set her up for a shot at the crown in Queens. By winning Cincinnati, where she did not drop a set, Swiatek vaulted past Coco Gauff for the No. 2 seed in New York. The result is a kinder draw with No. 1 Sabalenka on the opposite side.
The Wimbledon winner opens against Emiliana Arango with her first possible seeded opponent No. 29 Anna Kalinskaya, who owns a hard-court win over the Pole that Swiatek avenged, 6-3, 6-4, in Cincinnati. If you watched the US Open Mixed Doubles event then you saw Swiatek volley about as well as I’ve seen her volley in years. Her serve has been an asset in both her Wimbledon and Cincinnati title trips. If seeds hold true to form Swiatek would face Amanada Anisimova in a US Open quarterfinal that would be a Wimbledon final rematch.
(4) Jessica Pegula (USA)
The bad news for Pegula is she’s defending her 2024 US Open final points and since she beat Swiatek to take the Bad Homburg title on grass in June, she’s gone a dismal 2-4.
The good news for J-Peg: She looked happy, healthy and effective in US Open Mixed Doubles and actually played better—particularly at net and on return—then partner Jack Draper. So that should infuse her with some confidence after a summer of struggle. The question is if conditions are windy can Pegula, who plays flatter than nearly any Top 10 player, keep the ball in the court and still go after her shots? Pegula has a good draw, but there are dangerous players in her quarter including fifth-seeded Mirra Andreeva, former gold-medal champion Belinda Bencic and the often overlooked, but very dangerous Liudmila Samsonova. Montreal champion Victoria Mboko and two-time major champion Barbora Krejcikova are also in this quarter, but given Pegula’s recent struggles she should be pleased she has some room to move.
(6) Madison Keys (USA)
Australian Open champion Keys is capable of magical highs and maddening lows, but she has reached quarterfinals or better in four of her last eight tournament starts. Remember, Keys is a former US Open finalist, capable of bringing her best in Slams. Keys, who opens against Renata Zarazua, has twice reached US Open semifinals (2018 and 2023) since her loss to buddy Sloane Stephens in the 2017 final. Keys is in a tricky quarter along with two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka and 2023 title holder Coco Gauff, but if seeds hold true to form she’d only have to face one of them in the quarterfinals—if she gets that far. Keys can still crush the hip high forehand and her serve remains a weapon though she sometimes hits herself into trouble indulging her backhand-down-the-line desire rather than playing that stroke crosscourt or even down the middle until she can tee off on the forehand
Draw Losers
(1) Aryna Sabalenka
Obviously, the world No. 1 can go all the way if she’s on her game. The challenge is Sabalenka was not sharp in Cincinnati where she sailed her favored backhand losing to former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina—and she’s facing the pressure of defending the 2,000 points for her 2024 US Open championship.
Sabalenka can beat anyone, but her quarter is stacked with Rybakina, who just beat her, 2021 finalist Leylah Fernandez, who is coming off the Washington, DC title, Clara Tauson, one of the best servers in the sport, and Cincinnati finalist Jasmine Paolini, who gave Iga Swiatek a tough first set. Still, Sabalenka has reached semifinals or better in nine of her last 10 major appearances so she remains a favorite—it’s just her path, on paper, is much tougher than 2022 champion Swiatek.
(3) Coco Gauff (USA)
Some are slamming Gauff’s move of axing coach Matt Daly days before the US Open to bring in biomechanical coach Gavin MacMillan, who helped Sabalenka fix her sometime wayward serve.
Personally, I can’t blame Gauff given the shoddy state of her serve and the importance of her hunt for a second US Open title. She clanked 43 double faults in three matches in Montreal, including a mind-blowing 23 doubles vs. Danielle Collins, whom she still managed to beat. Gauff leads the Tour in double faults and knows better than all of us, you cannot win the US Open coughing up 20-plus doubles in a match. That’s a recipe for disaster.
That said, can Gauff make enough progress with MacMillan in four days to refine rather than completely reconstruct her serve? In today’s practice the pair also put a lot of work in on Gauff’s forehand swing.
Consider Gauff is often at her best playing instinctual tennis, so you have to wonder if the changes she’s making in practice could cause paralysis by analysis and make her overthink it? The serve is a real problem, but there are other challenges. Gauff has gone 4-4 since she rallied past Sabalenka to win her second major championship at Roland Garros. Gauff’s quarter includes Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka and she opens against Aussie Ajla Tomljanovic, who handed Serena Williams her last defeat at the US Open. Her speed, bold backhand and competitiveness make Gauff a threat every time she steps on court, but given all that’s going on it’s a big ask to expect a deep run here.
Emma Raducanu (GBR)
The 2021 US Open champion played one of the most dramatic WTA matches of this season nearly knocking No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka out of Cincinnati just weeks after Raducanu led the Belarusian in both sets before bowing in Wimbledon.
Working with now ex-coach Mark Petchey, Raducanu rediscovered the joy in her game. In this draw, she could confront some dangerous power players, including Veronika Kudermetova in round two followed by a potential third-round meeting with ninth-seeded Elena Rybakina who crushed Raducanu in their lone meeting. Raducanu is playing her best tennis in years this season, but this draw presents major pitfalls for a fan favorite.
First-Rounders to Watch
(11) Karolina Muchova (CZE) vs. (WC) Venus Williams (USA)
Head-to-head: Muchova leads 1-0
In pro tennis, you don’t often get what you deserve, you get what you get. What 45-year-old Venus Williams received in her potential farewell is a very tough assignment against all-court talent Muchova, who beat the two-time US Open champion 6-3, 7-5 in the 2020 Open first round.
The pair faced off in Mixed Doubles this week with Muchova and Andrey Rublev beating Williams and Reilly Opelka. This may well be a night match with New York fans saluting the legendary Venus 25 years after she won her maiden US Open crown.
(14) Clara Tauson (DEN) vs. Alexandra Eala (PHI)
Head-to-head: First meeting
Tauson is one of the best servers on the WTA Tour and showed it toppling Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys in succession to reach the Montreal semifinals where she ran out of gas against Naomi Osaka earlier this month. The 20-year-old Eala lit up the Miami Open upsetting Jelena Ostapenko, Madison Keys, Paula Badosa and Swiatek en route to the semifinals. The left-handed Eala is a crowd favorite with a knack for the down the line kill strike. The Tauson serve vs. Eala return will be a key component to the outcome here.
Barbora Krejcikova (CZE) vs. (22) Victoria Mboko (CAN)
First meeting
Two-time Grand Slam champion Krejcikova can shrewdly mix spins and speeds and is a fine volleyer, too. The 18-year-old Mboko lit up her home country rallying past Naomi Osaka to win Montreal this month. Mboko made history as the second-youngest woman in WTA history to defeat four Grand Slam champion—Sofia Kenin, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina and Osaka—en route to a championship. Only legendary Serena Williams, who was a 17-year-old dynamo clad in canary-colored Puma dress when she knocked off four major champions, including world No. 1 Martina Hingis to win the 1999 US Open, was younger.
This match pits Krejcikova’s all-court acumen vs. Mboko’s speed and defensive dazzle, but the Canadian doesn’t just play run and chase, she is fearless driving the ball down the line. Mboko injured her wrist crashing to the court in her win over Rybakina and skipped Cincinnati to rest and recover so health could be a factor here.
Ashlyn Krueger (USA) vs. (26) Sofia Kenin (USA)
Head-to-head: Even 1-1
Former Australian Open champion Kenin won their lone hard-court clash, 6-4, 6-4 in Doha earlier this year. Coached by Michael Joyce, Krueger has posted wins over Elena Rybakina, Daria Kasatkina and Leylah Fernandez this season. Kenin used her crafty drop shot well in their last meeting and that could be a key shot in the rematch.
