Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar are both excellent bike riders, two of the best of all time, arguably. The latter might have the 100 career wins, the World Championships, the Monuments, the five Grand Tour victories, but the former is the only rider to have comprehensively beaten him, twice at the Tour de France, in fact.
Whether the pair like it or not, they are, to an extent, defined by their rivalry with each other, like Rafal Nadal and Roger Federer, or George Smiley and Karla, or in cycling, Fausto Coppi and Gino Bartali. It’s hard to escape the duel. In the 17 second places Vingegaard has taken at the Tour – 14 stages, and three overall – the Visma-Lease a Bike has been pipped by his UAE Team Emirates-XRG rival 15 times.
In Pogačar’s absence, Vingegaard steps forward to centre stage. He is the overwhelming favourite for victory, the only rider to finish on the podium of the Tour since 2020 on the start list. He is no eternal second, but a winner in his own right.
“I came here to win the Vuelta – that’s pretty clear. That’s going to be my goal, of course, there can be different scenarios, but my goal and the team’s goal is to win the Vuelta. If I do that, then it will be a success.”
Vingegaard’s status is something echoed by his rivals, too. “Of course, Jonas is the favourite, he’s won the Tour twice, he’s one of the best two riders of his generation, but we’re also strong,” João Almeida of UAE Team-Emirates-XRG said.
Pogačar not being there to beat will take some of the sheen off the overall victory were it to happen, but that is not in Vingegaard’s control.
Pogačar had a similar experience at the 2024 Giro d’Italia, where he won six stages and the overall by almost 10 minutes in Vingegaard’s absence. It’s not impossible, given the tough route, to imagine similar domination at the Vuelta.
Vingegaard, interestingly, has only ever raced one Grand Tour where Pogačar hasn’t been present, the 2023 Vuelta. That race could easily have been won by him, but instead went to his teammate Sepp Kuss, as Jumbo-Visma completed a 1-2-3 podium sweep. This time around, Vingegaard is unlikely to give up his chance of a first red jersey.
“To start with, we have a clear leader and that’s Jonas,” Visma DS Grischa Niermann explained. “Of course, we have very strong guys, including Sepp and Matteo [Jorgenson]. But how we will play out in detail in our tactics, you will find out in the race.”
Only 24 riders in history have won three Grand Tours or more. Vingegaard seems a likely bet to become the 25th, and the only one of those with four second places, too. If he stands on the top step in Madrid next month, Pogačar’s presence or lack thereof won’t matter. There’s just the small matter of 21 stages to race before then.
