Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang prediction | UFC Shanghai breakdown
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC Shanghai main event.
Dan Tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 257 main event between Johnny Walker and Zhang Mingyang.
Johnny Walker UFC Fight Night 257 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 21-9 MMA, 7-6 UFC
- Height: 6’6″ Age: 33 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 82″
- Last fight: Knockout loss to Volkan Oezdemir (June 22, 2024)
- Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + Regional MMA titles
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
- + 16 KO victories
- + 3 submission wins
- + 17 first-round finishes
- + KO power
- + Athletic and agile for size
- + Sporadic shot selection
- ^ Flying knees to spinning assaults
- + Strong inside the clinch
- ^ Dangerous strikes, improved defense
- + Serviceable grappling ability
- ^ Solid strikes from topside
Zhang Mingyang UFC Fight Night 257 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 19-6 MMA, 3-0 UFC
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 27 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 75″
- Last fight: TKO win over Anthony Smith (April 26, 2025)
- Camp: BangTao Muay Thai (Thailand)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + Wushu Sanda championship
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
- + Amateur MMA accolades
- + 13 KO victories
- + 6 submission victories
- + 19 first-round finishes
- + KO power
- + Accurate shot slection
- ^J abs, hooks, crosses
- + Hard leg kicks and dangerous elbows
- + Strong inside the clinch
- + Serviceable wrestling ability
- + Good ground-and-pound from topside
Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang point of interest: Violence
The main event in Shanghai features a pairing of two light heavyweights who are very familiar with violence.
Storming onto the UFC stage with a slew of violent stoppages is Zhang Mingyang.
Despite hailing from a Sanda background, Zhang has steadily moved away from the bounce-step and spins associated with that art. Instead, Zhang has been leaning more toward boxing and muay Thai tactics in more recent years.
At range, Zhang will measure with a prodding jab while whipping leg kicks with impunity. And once Zhang can enter the pocket, the Chinese fighter appears to keep vicious crosses and hooks on a hair-trigger.
When feeling in stride, Zhang will unsheath some sharp elbow skills – both in the clinch and off the counter.
Still, defense doesn’t appear to be a strong suit for Zhang, so the 27-year-old will need to be respectful of what’s coming back at him when standing across from a customer like Johnny Walker.
An offensive marauder who towers over the majority of his peers, Walker brings a lot to the table if you’re a fan of explosive freak shows. Whether he’s parlaying spinning kicks into backfists or launching flying knees up the middle, Walker hits as hard as the liquor that his name is associated with.
Between the Brazilian wildman’s aggressive nature to the nomadic history of his training camps, there’s not a lot of process in Walker’s game to speak of. Walker, in his defense, did show a bit more measured and processed version of himself when working with the SBG Ireland team, but those changes didn’t add much depth to his overall game (much less help improve his results).
Since then, Walker has spent the last year working with Eric Nicksick and the Xtreme Couture MMA team in Las Vegas, Nevada. Not only is Nicksick a top-tier coach who has shown the ability to improve athletes of all levels, but Xtreme Couture is one of the best gyms on the planet when it comes to finding large, top-level training partners to work with.
For that reason, I’ll be extra curious to see what kind of Walker we get this weekend.
Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering the chaos that both of these two are prone to on the feet, no one should be shocked if this party hits the floor this Saturday.
Despite not showing much of his grappling chops in the octagon, Zhang appears to be fairly well-trained in the wrestling department.
Zhang may be at the level where he looks fluid in any sort of extended exchange, but the Chinese fighter’s head seems to be in the right place when it comes to first-layer defense and attacks. And when Zhang can get to the bodylock, he can competently hoist the hips of his opponent to take them down.
Although Walker is not beyond being taken down, he has worked hard on his counter-wrestling in order to complement his already dangerous clinch work.
Embracing the double-collar tie with a long and strong frame to boot, Walker effortlessly doles out knees and elbows from this position that can end a fight in an instant. And despite not being known for hitting takedowns, Walker has shown serviceable takedown abilities in both the open and from the clinch (areas I suspect that will only improve after training at a place like Xtreme Couture MMA).
Should Walker find himself operating on top early, then Zhang will need to demonstrate good technique and urgency opposite a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt who can offer some serious strikes and submission threats from topside.
Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang odds
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the Chinese fighter, listing Zhang -355 and Walker +270 via FanDuel.
Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang prediction, pick
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored in this spot, I warn anyone looking to empty their bankrolls on Zhang to win given the trap-fight feels attached.
As impressive as Zhang has looked offensively, we have yet to see his defense under any real scrutiny in the octagon due to the context of his small sample size. I know we’ve seen Walker knocked out repeatedly at this level, but lest we forget that Zhang was knocked dead by the notoriously fraudulent Askar Mozharov on the Chinese regionals.
Should Zhang turn out to be just another version of the glass cannons that have traditionally littered the light heavyweight division, then none of us should really be surprised. That said, I do suggest leaving some room to be surprised when it comes to Walker.
All bias aside, I truly believe that he’s finally getting proper training in what is a rich environment for a fighter of his size. And though I kinda wish he would try his luck at heavyweight, I can’t hate the year off he’s taken to rest and re-strategize his training.
Still, despite biasedly hoping for Walker and coach Nicksick to score the big upset, the analyst in me can’t ignore the chin issues of Walker and the danger that Zhang presents. I hope I’m wrong, but the official pick is Zhang by knockout in Round 2.
Prediction: Mingyang inside the distance
Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang start time, how to watch
As the main event, Walker and Mingyang are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 8:15 a.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+.
