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UFC Shanghai predictions | MMA Fighting

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The UFC is headed back to China.

On Saturday morning, the UFC returns to “The Middle Kingdom” for the first time in 2025, and it’s first trip to Shanghai since 2017, with a Fight Night card headlined by a banger of a light heavyweight contest between Johnny Walker and the up-and-coming Zhang Mingyang.

Walker is on the brink of irrelevancy and desperately needs a win if he wants to keep any dreams of title contention alive, while Zhang is the new exciting prospect on the 205-pound block, with piles of charisma and talent that could see him get a big push from the UFC if he can continue to shine. Given the history of how these two fight, it would be a shocker if this wasn’t fireworks.

But the main event may not even be the biggest fight on the card. The co-main event is a five-round fight between former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling and former featherweight title contender Brian Ortega. This fight got a new wrinkle at weigh-ins when it was moved to a catchweight contest after Ortega had a bad weight cut, and now the question is will that affect the outcome of this possible featherweight title eliminator? Either way, it should be interesting.

Where: Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Shanghai

When: Saturday, Aug. 23. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 3 a.m. ET on ESPN+. The five-fight main card begins at 6 a.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Johnny Walker (15) vs. Zhang Mingyang

Walker enters Saturday night with his back against the wall. At one point considered the future of the light heavyweight division, Walker has been up-and-down over the past several years, and now finds himself on a two-fight losing streak, both by knockout. That’s not exactly the sort of momentum you want when taking on a guy like Zhang in his home country.

“The Mountain Tiger” enters Saturday’s main event as arguably the hottest fighter in the light heavyweight division. 3-0 since making his UFC debut last year with three first-round knockouts and three Performance bonuses, Zhang is in the exact same spot Walker was when he started his UFC career. Another big performance on Saturday should put him into the thick of things at 205 pounds.

That being said, Walker is not without options here. Though his recent performances have failed to impress, he remains a dangerous fighter, huge for the weight class with explosive athleticism. He’s also the best fighter Zhang has ever faced, and “The Mountain Tiger” has been knocked out three times in his career. There’s a world here where Walker turns back the clock and upsets all the Chinese fans on Saturday.

But we’re not living in that world. Zhang is going to come out hot on Saturday, and Walker’s chin is not built to take that.

Brian Ortega (4) vs. Aljamain Sterling (9)

Well, this fight certainly added some last-minute intrigue.

Ortea and Sterling square off in a five-round co-main event on Saturday, or at least, we hope they will. During the weigh-ins on Thursday evening, rumors flew that Ortega was at the hospital due to the weight cut and was suddenly out of Shanghai. While that part proved to be untrue, something does appear to have happened as during the weigh-ins both men came in at 153 pounds and the bout was changed from a featherweight contest to a catchweight fight.

Assuming the fight does take place, this is arguably the most interesting bout on the card. Both men are exceptional grapplers with functional, albeit limited striking games. Sterling is certainly the better wrestler of the two, but Ortega is crafty as all get out on the floor, so that might make Sterling reticent to go for takedowns.

On the feet, Ortega is a pretty good offensive boxer but is not exactly amazing at defense. This is, after all, the man Max Holloway felt so bad about tuning up that in the middle of their title fight he tried to teach Ortega how to block punches with his hands instead of his face. Sterling doesn’t really have the game to take advantage though as his best weapons are his kicks, not combination boxing.

Before the weigh-in shenanigans. I was feeling Ortega had a good chance for the upset, but with a seemingly terrible weight cut behind him, and five rounds in front of him, I’m substantially less confident than I was just a few hours ago, so much so that I’m changing my pick.

Sergei Pavlovich (5) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (8)

A former interim heavyweight title challenger, Pavlovich got back on the winning track in February with a unanimous decision win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik at UFC Riyadh. While a win is always good, that win showed a different side of Pavlovich as he methodically beat Rozenstruik, employing his little-used wrestling skills to secure the victory, instead of his usual bruising punches.

On the other side of things, Cortes-Acosta is on the best win streak in the UFC’s heavyweight division with five in a row, most recently beating the other Serghei Spivac at UFC 316. Cortes-Acosta most takes decisions on the back of his high-volume striking style, which could play well against the low-paced Pavlovich.

Ultimately, I think this matchup comes down to Cortes-Acosta’s chin. Though he’s never been knocked out in his career, he’s also never been hit by Pavlovich. Pavlovich may not have a ton of craft with his punches, but they come hard and fast, and Spivac got Cortes-Acosta’s attention a few times in their fight. Pavlovich should finish him.

Sumudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas

Coming off a split-decision win over Mitch Raposo in April that shouldn’t have been controversial, Sumudaerji was likely in a win-or-get-your-walking-papers position as he’d lost three in row before that. Now “The Tibetan Eagle” has a chance to get back to .500 in the UFC as he takes on Kevin Borjas, and do so in his home country.

Borjas lost his first two UFC bouts but finally got in the win column in March, taking a unanimous decision over Ronaldo Rodriguez at UFC Mexico. Now he’s going into enemy territory again, and looking to start making a name for himself at 125 pounds.

Sumudaerji is probably the more polished striker of the two, so I expect him to try and manage the distance and land the cleaner shots while avoiding too much damage. Borjas will try and make things a little chaotic with his aggression, but I favor Sumudaerji to pick up the win.

Taiyilake Nueraji vs. Kiefer Crosbie

I won’t pretend that I know too much about Nueraji, who is making his UFC debut on Saturday. The 24-year-old Chinese fighter is 11-1 in his professional career with a 100 percent finishing rate. The little I’ve seen of him shows he’s a dangerous striker with serious power, a diversity of strikes, and prone to spurts of almost reckless aggression. Crosbie, meanwhile, has been inconsistent and doesn’t appear to have the durability to stand up to Nueraji’s heavy attacks.

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