Wisconsin opens its 2025 season on Thursday night with a home matchup against Miami (Ohio). While the Badgers are a heavy favorite to start the season 1-0, the contest kicks off what is a gauntlet schedule of top-tier matchups.
While Luke Fickell’s group begins the season as 17 1/2-point favorites against the RedHawks, it will need to exceed expectations if it hopes to secure a winning record this fall. ESPN’s Football Power Index considers Wisconsin the No. 40 team in the nation. The team’s game-to-game forecast suggests that it must play above that level to return to bowl eligibility.
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Wisconsin went 5-7 in 2024, dropping its final five regular-season contests against Big Ten opponents. The Badgers did open with early momentum by dispatching Western Michigan, South Dakota, Purdue, Northwestern and Rutgers to secure a 5-2 mark, but disheartening losses to conference foes, including Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska, left onlookers feeling disheartened.
Wisconsin’s 2025 slate doesn’t feature many layups. The Badgers will play powers Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon this fall, in addition to tests against Indiana, Illinois and Michigan. ESPN’s FPI set UW’s win-loss preseason mark at 5.6-6.4, but more specifically, here is how it projects Wisconsin to perform on a game-by-game basis:
Week 1 vs. Miami (Ohio)
ESPN FPI predicts: Wisconsin win
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Chances of winning: 83%
Week 2 vs. Middle Tennessee
ESPN FPI predicts: Wisconsin win
Chances of winning: 95.7%
Week 3 vs. Alabama
ESPN FPI predicts: Alabama win
Chances of winning: 88.7%
Week 4 vs. Maryland
ESPN FPI predicts: Wisconsin win
Chances of winning: 72.7%
Week 6 vs. Michigan
ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win
Chances of winning: 76.9%
Week 7 vs. Iowa
ESPN FPI predicts: Iowa win
Chances of winning: 53.4%
Week 8 vs. Ohio State
ESPN FPI predicts: Ohio State win
Chances of winning: 80.9%
Week 9 vs. Oregon
ESPN FPI predicts: Oregon win
Chances of winning: 86.1%
Week 11 vs. Washington
ESPN FPI predicts: Wisconsin win
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Chances of winning: 57.9%
Week 12 vs. Indiana
ESPN FPI predicts: Indiana win
Chances of winning: 66.1%
FPI Matchup Predictor (Week 10): Wisconsin 33.9%, Indiana 66.1%
Week 13 vs. Illinois
ESPN FPI predicts: Wisconsin win
Chances of winning: 55.6%
Week 14 vs. Minnesota
ESPN FPI predicts: Minnesota win
Chances of winning: 53.2%
Final Record: 5-7
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This article originally appeared on Badgers Wire: Wisconsin football 2025 season game-by-game predictions per ESPN FPI
