I have a confession: I’m a casual fan.
No, not of the Celtics, silly. I think 20 years of coverage qualifies me for “die-hard” status, but that’s just me. No, I’m a casual fan of the Bruins, Red Sox, and Patriots. It has been decades since I watched a Bruins game all the way through. I actively checked out on the Red Sox and Patriots when Mookie got traded and Tom Brady moved on, but both teams are pulling me back in.
My point is that there’s no shame in being a casual fan of any team. This site tends to cater to the die-hards, for obvious reasons. However, sometimes a casual fan just needs a place to catch up and see where the team stands. For a lot of folks, that happens right around Christmas. So here’s my attempt to get everyone up to speed. (I’m sure that any number of the die-hards will correct anything I get wrong and expand upon my summary in the comments below.
If you don’t recall, last year’s playoffs ended with Jayson Tatum getting injured and the Celtics getting eliminated from the playoffs by the New York Knicks. Shortly thereafter, Brad Stevens shed big contracts and let some impact free agents walk, all in the name of avoiding the dreaded 2nd Apron penalties (basically rules designed to break apart teams like the previous version of the Celtics). Gone are high level contributors like Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet. So most people assumed that the Celtics would be bad for a year. Perhaps they would do a one-year reset, get a high draft pick, and try to build back up the next year. A textbook “gap year.”
The thing is, the team is actually …really good. Even without Jayson Tatum.
What is this sorcery? Well, to start with, Jaylen Brown is proving to everyone that indeed he could lead a contending team on his own. Also, there’s a lot of talent left over from the title team. Plus, a lot of younger guys have stepped up (more on that later). And finally, Joe Mazzulla is proving that he’s not just the product of a super-stacked 2024 roster.
Add it all up and the Celtics are sitting in 3rd place in the East with a 18-11 record. For point of reference, they were 21-8 on Christmas last year.
When is Tatum going to return?
No one is exactly sure, but all signs point to the elusive “soon,” which is better than anyone could have hoped for in June. Like most people, I had assumed he would miss this whole season with the ruptured Achillies tendon. However, between some fortunate circumstances and the speed at which they treated the injury, he’s on pace to return much sooner. Everyone’s saying the right things about making sure he’s 110% before giving him the green-light. There are still checkpoints he has to pass, but all things seem to be progressing forward. Add in the fact that he’s a gym-rat, basketball-obsessed, workaholic and you can see how people are starting to get excited. He’s even travelled with the team and been a constant presence around the team.
If I had to guess, I would expect him back in late February or early March, but that’s pure speculation based off other people’s wild guesses. I am going to try to temper my expectations for the level of play he returns at. I expect minutes restrictions and a general lack of full speed athleticism at first. But again, guesses and speculation.
As mentioned above, Jaylen Brown is a star and currently playing at “in the MVP conversation” levels. Also, Payton Pritchard has stepped up like he’s playing in Pro-Ams. And of course Derrick White is Derrick White, which is to say perfect in every way.
On top of all that is the development of the younger bench players. While the Celtics are playing their way out of a high draft pick, fans should appreciate the fact that the team is seeing tremendous strides by players born in the 2000’s.
The big question heading into the season was what the team would do at the Center position. Neemias Queta has been a revelation. The 7 footer has established himself as a legit rotation center, and perhaps even a long term starter. Then there’s the all the energetic wings. Jordan Walsh, newcomer Josh Minott, and rookie Hugo Gonzalez are all hyper-aggressive defenders that are all shooting over 40% from 3 right now (probably not sustainable, but still a great sign).
Joe Mazzulla is pushing all the right buttons, motivating with equal parts love and psychotic intensity. There’s a lot of season left, but he should be getting early consideration for Coach of the Year.
As great as things are going, there have been some minor areas of concern. Anfernee Simons is coming off the bench and his per-36 scoring numbers are actually only down slightly from last season. However, he’s a very expensive 6th man and his defense is about as advertised (not great).
Newcomer Luka Garza has been in and out of the lineup, mostly due to his own defensive struggles (but he has shown signs lately, in particular with his rebounding). The other big man brought in this offseason was veteran Chris Boucher, and he simply hasn’t been part of the rotation (appearing in only 8 games thus far).
Lastly, it is worth noting that Sam Hauser has been shooting well below his career averages from 3 this year. Personally, I’m not concerned because I expect a hot streak or two to raise his season average before the end of the year.
I would think so. As good as Queta has been this year, the team is still very shallow at center. To the point where they have to use a lot of small-ball lineups just to get by. That has been an area of need since the offseason and the most obvious area of potential upgrade before the trade deadline in February. There’s always room to add a legit starting big man, shifting Queta into a very competent backup/rotation guy. Or a smaller deal could give Queta more depth help.
The Celtics might also want to shed a little more salary to get off some additional luxury tax penalties. Or they could pivot the other direction and add longer term salary for a useful player. They can afford to add some salary this season without exceeding the 2nd apron again – but it would have to be for the right player.
If a significant deal is made, it will likely include moving Anfernee Simons and his $27.7M salary. Brad Stevens has proven himself resourceful and creative in the past. I can’t wait to see what he comes up with next.
So is this team a real contender?
In short: I don’t see why not.
No team is running away with the East as of yet. The Celtics are right in the mix and at some point will get Jayson Tatum back. If they make a deal for another big man and keep shooting well, I don’t see any need to put a ceiling on this group.
There’s a lot of season left, and that’s the fun of it all. But so far, so good.
So enjoy the NFL playoffs, follow along with the baseball offseason, and catch a few more Celtics games in the coming days. I think you’ll be happy with the way things are going as well.
