This story was excerpted from Bryan Hoch’s Yankees Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
On a date in the not-too-distant future, Aaron Judge will hit his 359th home run, surpassing Yogi Berra for sole possession of fifth place on the Yankees’ franchise list.
It’s fun to imagine how Berra might have reacted. When Johnny Bench passed him for the most homers by a catcher in 1980, Berra sent a telegram that read, in part: “I always thought the record would stand until it was broken.”
Judge understands and appreciates his place in Yankees history. During his pursuit of Roger Maris’ single-season American League home run record three seasons ago, he spoke frequently about that topic – a major reason why he re-signed with the club despite larger offers elsewhere.
“The way Yogi played the game, what he meant to the pinstripes,” Judge said, “you know how much it meant, being a New York Yankee, to him. I feel the same way. I’m honored to wear this jersey. So it’s pretty cool to be on that list.”
The top five places on that lineup have been untouched, in order, since 1966 – Babe Ruth hit 659 of his 714 home runs with the Yankees, followed by Mickey Mantle (536), Lou Gehrig (493), Joe DiMaggio (361), then Berra (358).
Judge is likely to pass DiMaggio by season’s end, and then comes the big question – how far can he climb? It’s a conversation that came up Wednesday evening, when I joined Danny Mantle and Billy Martin Jr. on Mike Pinto’s Yankees podcast.
“Judge is my favorite player,” Mantle said. “The guy is incredible, and there’s no telling what he may do on any given night. It’s just a privilege to be able to watch him. I’ve said this several times: I wish my dad was here, because he would love this type of player.”
Since 2017, Judge leads the Majors in homers (354) and AB/HR (11.14), entering Wednesday. His 358 homers are the most through a player’s first 1,121 career games in Major League history, far ahead of Ralph Kiner’s 309.
His recent run gives a clear baseline: 62 homers in 2022 and 58 in ‘24 when he played 150-plus games; 39 in 2021 and 37 in 2023 when injuries took a bite. This season, despite a right flexor strain, he’s already at 43.
2021-24 gives us a per-season average of 49, which is reasonable to project where he’ll finish in ’25, passing DiMaggio in the process.
Then he’s got to chase down Gehrig – say he hits 49 again in ’26, then begins a gentle decline, something like 44 homers in 2027. That would put Judge within striking distance of Gehrig and the 500-home run club sometime in 2028.
Of course, health is the X-factor. Injuries limited Judge to 112 and 102 games in 2018-19, when he hit just 27 homers each year. Any more seasons like that would stall his ascent. But, unlike Ruth, Mantle or Gehrig, Judge will have the designated hitter role to help preserve his bat.
So where does it all end up? Pencil this in as a conservative guess: If Judge remains mostly healthy, we’re probably talking about him passing Mantle (536) and rubbing shoulders with Reggie Jackson (563), Manny Ramirez (555) and Mike Schmidt (548).
Elite company, and it still may not be the ceiling. As Aaron Boone frequently says, “I’m not going to put a limit on anything he can do.” Neither will the Mantles.
“We all know that Judge is just a phenomenal player, and just a joy to watch,” Mantle said. “I just think my dad would be so thrilled to watch him play.”
