LAS VEGAS — While speaking in Las Vegas, one of the cities that could feel strung along by the NBA’s expansion process, Commissioner Adam Silver said a decision was coming next year.
“I think now we’re in the process of working with our teams and gauging the level of interest and having a better understanding of what the economics would be on the ground for those particular teams…” Silver said, speaking with the media before the NBA Cup title game. “Then, sometime in 2026, we’ll make a determination.”
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That does set a timeline for what happens next. NBA expansion — almost certainly to Seattle and Las Vegas — has been discussed for years. At first, Silver said he wanted to get a new CBA with the players in place, and then a new television deal in place, before seriously studying expansion. Even when those things happened, it felt like the league was dragging its feet with a slow process, including last summer when Silver said the owners commissioned “doing an in-depth analysis of all the issues around expansion, both economic and non-economic.” All of that while the owners seem to want to move full speed ahead with an NBA Europe league that would be separate.
Silver said he was sensitive to the idea of just leaving Seattle and Las Vegas on the hook.
“It’s not a secret we’re looking at this market in Las Vegas. We are looking at Seattle. We’ve looked at other markets, as well,” Silver said. “I’d say I want to be sensitive there about this notion that we’re somehow teasing these markets, because I know we’ve been talking about it for a while.
“As I’ve said before, domestic expansion, as opposed to doing a new league in Europe, is selling equity in this current league. If you own 1/30 of this league, now you own 1/32 if you add two teams. So it’s a much more difficult economic analysis. In many ways, it requires predicting the future.
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“At the same time, I think Seattle and Las Vegas are two incredible cities. Obviously, we had a team in Seattle that had great success. We have a WNBA team here in Las Vegas in the Aces. We’ve been playing the Summer League here for 20 years. We’re playing our Cup games here, so we’re very familiar with this market.”
It will ultimately come down to whether a supermajority of the existing owners think the one-time massive cash infusion they would receive from expansion fees — hundreds of millions that go straight to the bottom line, not shared with the players — is worth giving up a percentage of the league long term. Not every owner is convinced that it is a good trade-off, even as franchise values rise.
The slow pace of expansion has led to a lot of speculation about NBA team relocation, with a franchise in a smaller market being sold and moved to Seattle or Las Vegas. Silver said he had no control over that.
“The league doesn’t have the right to relocate a team…” Silver said. “But relocating a team requires that team’s desire to be relocated, specifically the governor; it’s a process where you apply to relocate.
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“I’d also say just because some markets don’t generate the same revenue as others, it doesn’t mean they are markets that are not worthy of NBA franchises. If you look in our constitution, the factors that the owners are required to look at in making the determination whether to relocate a team go to support that team has historically had in that community, the operation of that team, the competitive opportunity in that market.”
Whatever happens, it looks like a decision will be made next year.
