Finally, we’ve reached the good stuff: it’s Round 1 of the College Football Playoff.
Leading things off tonight will be an intriguing matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman.
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Headlined by Alabama tight end Josh Cuevas, I’ve identified some nice value on the board with three Alabama vs. Oklahoma props and free college football picks for Friday, December 19.
Alabama vs Oklahoma props for CFP First Round
|
Player |
Pick |
|
|---|---|---|
|
John Mateer |
Under 34.5 rushing yards |
|
|
Deion Burks |
Under 31.5 receiving yards |
|
|
Josh Cuevas |
Over 26.5 receiving yards |
John Mateer Under 34.5 rushing yards
As of publication, I remain undecided on who I think wins this game.
I do, however, think one aspect of the first matchup holds true: the game getting ugly at times and staying relatively low-scoring. With that at the forefront of my mind, I was surprised to see the rushing number this high for John Mateer.
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Sure, it was obvious that Mateer’s legs were part of the game plan in the first matchup, as he had double-digit carries. It’s also obvious they’ll be part of the plan once again, and there’s even a degree of desperation that may increase his volume.
Even with that in mind, I can’t get past him managing 23 rushing yards, partly because of two sacks, on those heavy carries in the first meeting. I think the Alabama Crimson Tide and their 87th-percentile havoc creation can get a few sacks again.
As a consequence, I think an over-10-yard adjustment from what he ran for in the first matchup is too high, no matter the stakes.
Deion Burks Under 31.5 receiving yards
This is just betting that the Oklahoma Sooners’ passing environment looks a lot closer to the first meeting than to some hypothetical shootout.
Deion Burks is priced like a player who needs either real volume or one clean explosive. In the first matchup, he got involved, and it still didn’t matter, with just 19 yards on four targets.
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More importantly, this Oklahoma Sooners passing game didn’t have room to breathe. Mateer finished with 120 passing yards, took sacks, and the offense never got into a rhythm that would naturally create extra downfield chances.
That’s the problem in this matchup. Alabama’s havoc forces quick decisions and turns “maybe” routes into throwaways. I see Oklahoma taking a pretty conservative approach in this matchup. That’s particularly meaningful for a guy like Burks, who’s an explosive playmaker rather than a heavy volume collector.
This number assumes a steadier pass diet than OU has shown against this specific defense.
Josh Cuevas Over 26.5 receiving yards
This is mostly a bet on role and game script lining up the same way it did the first time these teams played.
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Josh Cuevas wasn’t some “nice to have” in that matchup. He was the guy: six catches on seven targets for 80 yards and a touchdown, and it wasn’t empty volume either. He was consistently moving the chains (71% success rate) and creating positive plays (1.02 EPA per target).
That matters because Oklahoma’s defense is legitimately elite across the board, and they’re especially nasty against the run. If you’re Alabama, you don’t want to spend the night banging your head into a front that’s built to erase rushing efficiency. The answer is to live in the quick game and stay on schedule, and Cuevas is a clear candidate to profit from that.
Sure, Oklahoma will adjust from that game, and maybe that trims the clean looks a bit, but I don’t think it changes who Ty Simpson leans on. Cuevas has been a security blanket against pass rushes that force you to get the ball out, and OU is definitively one of those defenses.
This is a low bar for a player who already excelled in this very matchup.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
