Not to be too blunt, but the Alabama Crimson Tide should be favored by much more than 11.5 points against the South Carolina Gamecocks this weekend.
The Tide have the edge in every facet of the game, and their defensive front is going to emphasize those strengths against Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers.
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My Alabama vs. South Carolina player props begin with that reality.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
Alabama vs South Carolina props for Week 9
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Prop bet #1: LaNorris Sellers Under 19.5 rushing yards
South Carolina‘s offensive line is nowhere near last year’s quality, and that has hampered LaNorris Sellers’s most unique assets.
Nowadays, Sellers cannot evade defenders, because too many are getting to him. He has fallen short of this prop in four of his last five games, all of South Carolina’s SEC matchups this season. The sole exception came against Kentucky, the worst team in the conference this year.
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This is not the Sellers who drew Heisman consideration in the preseason. Well, more precisely, this offense is not capable of letting Sellers be that version of himself.
The Gamecocks rank second-to-last in the country in expected points lost to sacks this season, per CFB-graphs.com.
Frankly, this rushing yardage prop is wildly inflated, given Sellers has ended up with negative rushing yards in three SEC games this season.
Prop bet #2: Josh Cuevas Over 26.5 receiving yards
Alabama’s passing offense ranks No. 3 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per dropback while dropping back at the 10th-highest relative rate in the country. That alone is reason to back the Tide as favorites at South Carolina.
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The Gamecocks have a decent passing defense, but they give up repeated successes while focusing on limiting explosive plays. South Carolina is No. 114 in the country in defensive dropback success rate, per CFB-graphs.com.
Alabama will take those repeated successes to mount sustained drives, already sitting No. 8 in the country in quality drive rate.
As long as three or four of those successes find tight end Josh Cuevas, he should easily clear this receiving prop for the fourth straight game, all against SEC opponents.
Prop bet #3: Ty Simpson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has yet to throw fewer than two touchdowns in a game this season, notching at least three scores in three of seven games.
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Accuracy has set Simpson apart this season, completing 70.2% of his passes thanks to his touch as much as his strength.
The Tide finish drives at the seventh-best rate in the country, scoring 4.42 points per quality drive. That is largely thanks to Simpson’s 18 passing touchdowns, a number that may be increasingly emphasized as he sits tied atop the Heisman odds board.
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