American Men Facing Growing Pains With Singapore Worlds Looming
In contrast to the overwhelming experience the American women bring to Singapore in pursuit of a large stack of medals, the U.S. men are in the rebuilding process after a rough Olympic performance last year resulted in just six individual medals and a lone gold from Bobby Finke.
Out are veterans Caeleb Dressel, Ryan Murphy and Nic Fink, in are eight swimmers who have never competed at any Olympics or World Championships. That list includes Tommy Janton, Gabriel Jett, Jonny Kulow, Rex Maurer, Quintin McCarty, Campbell McKean, Luka Mijatovic and Patrick Sammon. While the women’s team has 10 swimmers with multiple Olympics under their belt, the men have only Finke and Santo Condorelli, who represented Canada in 2016 and Italy in 2021 before making a shock appearance on this year’s American team to race the 50 free.
Fortunately for the American team, swimmers such as Luke Hobson, Carson Foster, Jack Alexy and Shaine Casas have emerged as strong options heading into this global meet. Will they be able to deliver in Singapore, and can their less experienced teammates provide support?
Bobby Finke — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
Freestyle
The American men should collect significant hardware in the freestyle events. Finke has reached the podium in the 800 and 1500 free at every major meet going back to the Tokyo Olympics, and he will be the favorite to back up his Olympic gold in the 1500 free with another title, even with challengers lining up. Hobson, meanwhile, is one of two active swimmers who has broken 1:44 in the 200 free, setting up a fight with David Popovici for gold.
Alexy won silver medals in the 50 and 100-meter events at the 2023 World Championships, and he secured a short course world title in the 100 free in December. The likes of Popovici, Pan Zhanle and Kyle Chalmers will present significant challenges in the 100 while Cameron McEvoy will be tough to beat in the 50, but expect Alexy to reach the podium in at least one event.
Finally, the 400 free has been the weakest event for the U.S. men for years, but Rex Maurer posted a time of 3:43.33 at Nationals to give himself an outside shot at bronze.
Projected medal total: 5
Backstroke
The absence of Murphy leaves the American men in a weaker spot in the backstroke events than in many years. That’s particularly the case in the 100 back, where the top-ranked U.S. swimmer in Singapore will be Janton, his time of 53.00 a far cry from the six swimmers under 52.5 so far this year. Two Americans went sub-53 at the World University Games, but they will not be part of this year’s Worlds squad.
The 50 back looks more promising with Casas and Quintin McCarty sitting behind only Russians Kliment Kolesnikov and Pavel Samusenko and in the range of what is typically required to reach the podium. The 200 back is the strongest of the three events as Jack Aikins has the world’s top time at 1:54.25 and Olympic finalist Keaton Jones also going under 1:55 at U.S. Nationals.
Projected medal total: 1
Breaststroke
The Americans could easily be blanked in this stroke this year. In the 50 breast, neither Campbell McKean nor Michael Andrew are ranked in the top-10 in the world, and the top American in the 200 breast is Josh Matheny, with a 2:08.87 that is nowhere near contending status. But in the 100, there is a slight chance of a podium finish thanks to McKean’s dramatic improvement in recent months. He heads to Worlds as the second-fastest swimmer in the world this year, although he will need further drops from his 58.96 for a real podium shot.
Projected medal total: 0
Luca Urlando — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
Butterfly
The Paris struggled of this team were most pronounced in butterfly, where no one qualified for a final. But things look much better this time around. Dare Rose and Andrew probably lack the speed to contend with the powerful sprinters in the 50, but the 100 and 200-meter situations are better. Over two laps, Casas and Thomas Heilman rank fifth and tied for eighth in the world, and Casas has a 2025 best time of 50.51 that is not far off what it will take for a medal.
In the 200 fly, the U.S. men will try to win their first medal since the retirement of Michael Phelps almost a decade ago. Luca Urlando heads to Worlds ranked first in the world after clocking 1:52.37 in April, moving to No. 4 all-time in the event. A repeat of that mark would surely put him on the podium. Foster is also a threat here after going 1:53.70 at Nationals.
Projected medal total: 1
Individual Medley
Leon Marchand remains an unstoppable force in the 200 and 400 IM, but the American swimmers are positioned well for medals. Casas and Foster are the only swimmers who have broken 1:56 this year in the 200, and in the Olympic final, only Marchand and Duncan Scott went faster than the 1:55.7s posted by the U.S. duo at Nationals. In the 400 IM, Finke has the second-best time in the world, but he dropped the event for the international meet. Foster is ranked third at 4:07.92, and he could grab World Championships silver behind Marchand for the third time while Maurer’s sub-4:10 form puts him in the chase. If there’s any event where two American men reach the podium, it will be one of the medleys.
Projected medal total: 2
Overall
We have projected nine individual medals, which would be an improvement of three despite the big-name absences from this team. Of course, that depends on swimmers such as Hobson, Aikins, Urlando and McKean converting on their breakout performances in the early months of the year. But when it comes to gold-medal contention, only Finke in the distance races and Hobson in the 200 free will have a legitimate shot. Another single individual gold or perhaps a shut-out is possible.
The American men are well-positioned for the freestyle relays, as strong favorites in the 400 and co-favorites with Great Britain in the 800-meter event. As a whole, these projections have the U.S. finishing with 36 medals, with 19 individual women’s awards, nine on the men’s side and all eight relays. After only 28 total podium finishes in Paris, albeit with less events on the schedule, that would be a solid step forward in only one year.
