American Amanda Anisimova has made her second major final in a row, facing off against defending champion Aryna Sabalenka on Saturday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) in the US Open women’s final. Anisimova upset Sabalenka at Wimbledon in July, but Sabalenka, the No. 1 seed, has dropped only one set this tournament.
Our experts weigh in on how each could pull off the victory.
What can Anisimova do to defeat Sabalenka?
D’Arcy Maine: Well, first, get some sleep! After an already quick turnaround between her quarterfinal victory Wednesday over Iga Swiatek and her semifinal match on Thursday, Anisimova then needed almost three hours to defeat Naomi Osaka in the early morning on Friday. It might sound silly but, because Sabalenka had four days off ahead of her semifinal match (due to Marketa Vondrousova withdrawing with injury ahead of the match) and a much earlier evening Thursday, Anisimova definitely has some catching up to do in terms of rest and recovery.
But aside from that, Anisimova knows what it takes to defeat the world No. 1. She’s done it in six of their nine career meetings and proved she’s more than capable of it on the sport’s biggest stages at Wimbledon earlier this summer. She will need to bring her powerful hitting, trademark aggression, incredible mental strength and will to win — in addition to getting some free points on her serve — and take full advantage of the crowd that will be firmly behind her. A first major title feels well within reach.
Bill Connelly: Keep hunting. One of the secrets to Anisimova’s success against Sabalenka has been winning the longer points, but she doesn’t win them by waiting for Sabalenka to screw up. According to the match charting at Tennis Abstract, Anisimova won 12 of 18 points with rallies of seven or more shots in their Wimbledon semifinal, and 10 of the 12 came off of winners or forced errors.
Back in her straight-sets win over Sabalenka in Toronto last year, she won 11 of 16 such points with five winners and forced errors. She takes the fight to Sabalenka like few can, but she’s patient about it, and when she finds the ball she’s looking for, she makes the most of it. Do that again, and she’ll be a Grand Slam champion.
Simon Cambers: Keep doing what she’s been doing! This has been an incredible tournament for Anisimova, a seriously impressive reset after what happened in the Wimbledon final. Beating Swiatek must have given her enormous confidence. She was equally impressive, mentally, in beating Osaka to reach the final.
Anisimova leads Sabalenka 6-3 head to head and beat her at Wimbledon, so she knows what she has to do. Her backhand is a match for anyone and if she keeps moving the way she has been, then she’ll fancy her chances. She could get nervous, of course, in front of an expectant home crowd, but it feels like she will be more inspired and in many ways, feel like she has nothing to lose. Just get out there and crack the ball.
What can Sabalenka do to defeat Anisimova?
Maine: Sabalenka has made no secret that the loss to Anisimova at Wimbledon crushed her. But she vowed to learn from it and took some time to reset. She’s seemingly done just that and was introspective Thursday about their last match. During their encounter at the All England Club, Sabalenka said she was questioning her decision-making throughout the match and it resulted in unforced errors. She acknowledged that would have to change to get a different outcome.
“I gave her a lot of opportunities, and of course, she played incredible tennis, but I feel like I had my opportunities,” Sabalenka said. “I didn’t use them, and I feel like the key for me is going to be just go out there, of course, like, obviously fight, but trust my decisions and go after my shots.”
Sabalenka has now reached three major finals this season — facing an American each time — but is still looking for her first Slam title of the year. That weighs heavily on her but she will need to tune out any additional pressure and simply focus on playing her dominant brand of tennis.
Connelly: She has to take some risks on her serve. These two have split four matches against each other since the start of 2024, and the difference in serving success for Sabalenka in the wins and losses has been dramatic. In her two wins, she won at least 73% of her first-serve points and 58% of her second-serve points both times; in her losses, she won closer to 60% of her first serves and under 50% of her second serves.
In her win over Anisimova at Roland Garros this year, Sabalenka landed fewer first serves and double-faulted more than in her Wimbledon loss, but she also served up far more aces and faced far fewer break points. She tends to win the shorter points against Anisimova, and there’s no better way to set up shorter points than with big serves.
Cambers: It sounds funny to say, given that Sabalenka has reached at least the semifinals of all four Slams this year, but it feels to me like she’s still not quite playing as well now as she was in Australia at the start of the year. Her serve has looked a little fragile at times, with fewer aces than usual, while she’s also coughed up a few more double faults than this time last year. She has been pushed hard in three of her five matches here.
So, if she wants to win, she needs to serve well, and serve at a high percentage, because Anisimova has been crushing her returns. She’ll need to use her experience, too, and cope with what will be a partisan crowd. At her best, she knows she can beat anyone, so it’s about channeling everything she has, all her energy, into one last big push to get the job done.
Who will win?
Pam Shriver: I am finding predicting this final challenging. On the one hand, I do feel that Anisimova — with the late finish early Friday morning defeating Naomi Osaka in a 35-game marathon, one match after defeating Swiatek — could be out of gas. On the other hand, between Sabalenka’s demons this year late in majors at the hands of Americans and the Anisimova feeling of destiny to win the next major after her Wimbledon defeat, Anisimova might have the edge. You can make a case for either.
If Anisimova is able to recover physically and emotionally from the quarterfinal and semifinal wins and strike the ball like she did in the third set of the Osaka win, then Amanda Anisimova will be the third American woman to win a major this year. It’s a compelling final.
Maine: Logically, this is Sabalenka’s to win. She’s the defending champion, significantly fresher and with significantly more experience on her side, and perhaps hungrier than ever to win. But there’s something about Anisimova’s run that feels like destiny. I simply can’t pick against the crowd favorite after everything she’s already achieved this tournament and proved to herself and the world. Anisimova in three sets. (Why not, right?)
Connelly: I’m going with Sabalenka, primarily because the thought of someone winning 23 Grand Slam matches in a single year and not taking a title breaks my brain. Anisimova obviously matches up well with her, but they’ve still split the four matches since Anisimova’s return to the tour — not exactly a one-sided matchup — and Sabalenka is just too good not to win a Slam this year. Right?
That said, the longer this goes, the more it favors Anisimova. Anisimova’s past seven losses (not including an injury retirement in May) were all in straight sets. If you let her hang around, she’ll punish you. It’s either Sabalenka in straight sets or Anisimova in three. Give me the former.
Cambers: For me, there are four things at play here, all of which lead me to think that Anisimova can and will win this. First, all the pressure is on Sabalenka, as defending champion. Second, the crowd is going to play a huge role, cheering every point that New Jersey-born Anisimova wins.
Third, Anisimova’s 6-3 record over Sabalenka means she goes into the match with belief and confidence, knowing what she needs to do and that she’s done it, several times, including their most recent battle at Wimbledon. And fourth, the way she has rebounded from the Wimbledon final double bagel is not only enormously impressive, it gives her so much confidence that I think she’ll play as well in the final as she has done on the way there. It would be the fairy-tale comeback, and there’s a great chance it will happen.
