AP Top 25: For teams like LSU, Duke, strength of schedule provides a perspective shift

Opponent scheduling creates a fascinating experiment for college basketball coaches, no matter if it’s chock full of talent or lacking oomph.

Will the team back up the claim that they can compete with the best? Will they falter? Are their March hopes dashed by January because of it?

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If it’s a weak schedule, can the team level up when the time comes? Will it matter to the NCAA women’s selection committee?

None of these questions is new this year, nor is the chatter around the early findings. Yet, as competition slowly turns to conference play, it’s interesting to think about the dichotomy.

Take Duke and LSU, who squared off earlier this month. Duke can’t handle the brutally tough opponents that head coach Kara Lawson scheduled. It’s so bad that the Blue Devils’ hopes for March may indeed be diminished. Meanwhile, LSU is torching opponents at a historic rate. Don’t mind the triple-digit numbers — many of which begin with “3” — next to those schools.

“Everybody always talks about our strength of schedule,” LSU’s Flau’jae Johnson said on Yahoo Sports Hoops 360 last week after a 93-77 win over Duke. “Like I agree, you know what I’m saying? It’s definitely — Coach Mulkey knows what she’s doing. She has four Nattys (national championships). I only have one.”

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To her point, they won that one together in 2023 after a real snoozer of a non-conference schedule. They’re well on their way to a repeat of that with a 53-point average winning margin, higher than the 44-point average in their 2022-23 non-conference schedule.

The blueprint is there for those who want to take it. And one could make the case that UConn has done the opposite by building a strong non-conference schedule because their conference schedule isn’t great (though there is no argument that it’s much better than many teams’ non-cons).

Connecticut remained on top of the AP poll for a seventh consecutive week following a 28-point win over USC in Los Angeles on Saturday. The Huskies led by as many as 39 late in the third quarter. It was the final game of a home-and-home series between the coastal powers that featured stars JuJu Watkins and Paige Bueckers in year 1. It may not continue while bloated conferences require additional travel.

“The whole realignment thing, I think, has really made it difficult for home-and-homes,” UConn head coach Geno Auriemma said afterward. “You might be able to get these neutral court games where you play once, but in terms of home and homes, it’s gotten tougher.”

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Mis-scheduling can influence the noise around a program. That doesn’t portend wins and losses, but does create impact. A season ago, Iowa State was invited to the national championship contender party while led by Audi Crooks, then a sophomore poised to take her place as a face of the game. They promptly tripped with losses to UNI, South Carolina by 40 and UConn by 33. The Cyclones plummeted from eighth in the AP preseason poll to out, and never to return after week 7.

What a difference a year makes. Iowa State played an unremarkable schedule until last week’s Cy-Hawk rivalry game, when the then-No. 10 Cyclones won 74-69 over No. 11 Iowa. Iowa State head coach Bill Fennelly said his team knew this was one of their bigger games between the rivalry, rankings and increased attention.

“They were wired up today a little bit more than normal,” Fennelly said. “And that’s gonna happen. “Some of our players have had to read some things that aren’t real complimentary, and they’re not real happy about it.”

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They earned their statement win, and the junior Crooks re-established herself as one of the nation’s best players who can not only lead the nation in scoring against lesser opponents, but also show up in the major moments. She had 30 on 20 shots with 10 rebounds.

“I feel like now we’re officially battle-tested,” Crooks said. “You know, people were commenting on our schedule, so now there’s not much else to say.”

Games of the week: Women’s Champions Classic (Saturday) 

The same four teams that played in the inaugural event held in Brooklyn’s Barclays Center will meet again, but in a different configuration. And there could be repeat winners after UConn and Tennessee won their games a year ago.

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Louisville (10-3) vs Tennessee (7-2): 11 a.m. ET on FOX
Iowa (10-1) vs. UConn (10-0): 1:30 p.m. on FOX

Performance of the week: Olivia Miles, TCU

Olivia Miles delivered her second consecutive triple-double in TCU’s 89-49 win over Jacksonville at home on Sunday. She had 15 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists, a stat line that came eight days after a nearly identical 15-point, 10-rebound, 11-assist day against UTEP. Miles, a projected WNBA lottery pick, has at least 15 points and five assists in all 11 of her first games with TCU, an NCAA record to start a season. She is also the active leader in triple-doubles with eight, and has now put up back-to-back ones in consecutive Decembers.

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Stat of the week: 0-for-7

The Tar Heels missed all seven shot attempts in overtime to drop their ACC opener, 76-66, to Louisville at home on Sunday. The Cardinals made two baskets and mostly sped away with a 6-of-6 showing at the free-throw line. The result could determine the ACC regular-season champion. NC State, Duke and Notre Dame, now without KK Bransford, haven’t lived up to expectations and no other team has shown themselves a star contender yet.

Yahoo Sports’ AP Top 25 ballot 

1. UConn
2. Texas
3. South Carolina
4. UCLA
5. Michigan
6. LSU
7. TCU
8. Maryland
9. Iowa State
10. Oklahoma
11. Iowa
12. Louisville
13. Kentucky
14. Baylor
15. North Carolina
16. Ole Miss
17. Tennessee
18. Vanderbilt
19. USC
20. Princeton
21. Notre Dame
22. Ohio State
23. Nebraska
24. Washington
25. Georgia

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Official AP Top 25

1. UConn
2. Texas
3. South Carolina
4. UCLA
5. LSU
6. Michigan
7. Maryland
8. Oklahoma
9. TCU
10. Iowa State
11. Iowa
12. Kentucky
13. Vanderbilt
14. Ole Miss
15. Baylor
16. Louisville
17. Tennessee
18. North Carolina
19. USC
20. Notre Dame
21. Ohio State
22. Washington
23. Nebraska
24. Michigan State
25. Princeton