Assessing 2025 World Series favorites as postseason approaches

Who’s the favorite to win the World Series this year?

Uh, can we get back to you once a team has won three games in the World Series?

No? You want to know now?

See, it’s always difficult to put a “favorite” label on an MLB team — even this close to October — and especially in the expanded postseason format.

This year seems especially problematic. As of this writing, going into Tuesday’s games, the 12 current playoff teams are only separated by 86 points in winning percentage from top (Brewers) to bottom (Mariners). This will likely be the second straight year — yet only the second full season since 2014 — in which zero teams win 100 games.

Perhaps, at season’s end, a team will have a nice combo of a Wild Card Series bye and an engine running particularly hot, and we’ll have our favorite.

For now, let’s see what FanGraphs’ odds (as of Tuesday) have to say on the matter and subjectively determine whether those odds “feel” accurate or incorrect at this point.

FanGraphs (FG) World Series odds: 16.6%

How do those odds feel? Like the computers are singing “I Love L.A.” a bit too loudly.

Why? Obviously, the Dodgers have not been the Superteam™ they were expected to be, and that’s reflected in their FG World Series odds dropping from 22.9% at the start of the season. You can argue they should still be the outright favorites simply because they employ so many human beings (plus, Shohei Ohtani) who are good at playing baseball.

But 16.6% still seems pretty high.

For one, as of this moment, the Dodgers aren’t even in a position to take the Wild Card round off. We can argue all we want about rest and rust, but not having to win a best-of-three series gives you better odds of advancing than having to win a best-of-three. It’s science.

FG World Series odds: 13.2%

How do those odds feel? Like they were drawn up by pinstripe-wearing Joey Cacciatore from da Bronx.

Why? Though the Yanks are on the upswing, they’re still trailing the Blue Jays in the division.

Again, it’s not like a Wild Card winner can’t advance in this format. Two years ago, both World Series teams (Rangers and Diamondbacks) were Wild Card winners. But it’s hard to be our true favorite when you aren’t in first place.

Furthermore, can Aaron Judge throw? Because it sure seems like he still can’t throw. That’s an issue.

The Yankees’ biggest “problem” might also be their biggest strength, which is hitting baseballs over fences. They purposefully pull the ball in the air, sacrificing contact for muscle. Honestly, it might work. They might just stage a dinger derby for a month and waltz. But if a team figures out how to keep them in the park, that’s all she wrote, because they sure as heck aren’t going to hit-and-run their way to a title.

FG World Series odds: 9.5%

How do those odds feel? As Ontario native Bryan Adams might sing, they “feel so right.”

Why? Because while a Toronto team that hasn’t won a playoff game in the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era still has plenty to prove in the postseason, the Blue Jays have a better-than-average chance of nailing down the division (they hold the tiebreakers over both the Yankees and Red Sox) and a bye, which is a great start.

Vladdy appears to have rebounded well from a hamstring scare, and this offense has a possibly ideal blend of contact and power, with the ability to run the bases both smartly and aggressively. The X-factors are Shane Bieber and the volatile bullpen, which, to its credit, did perform well against the Yankees last weekend, albeit in a series loss.

Overall, a less-than-10-percent chance of touching ‘em all, a la Joe Carter, feels fair here.

FG World Series odds: 9.4%

How do those odds feel? Like the underrated city of Milwaukee itself, the Brewers are not being shown enough love here.

Why? Though no one should claim the Brewers are the “favorite” just because they have baseball’s best record, the built-in advantage of a clear shot to the NL’s top seed is a real thing that should be better reflected in the odds.

Plus, the Brewers have a genuine ace in Freddy Peralta and have gotten an out-of-nowhere ace-type season from Quinn Priester. It will be interesting to see how they deploy the Wiz Kid, Jacob Misiorowski, who, while erratic, has shown he can be a real weapon. And you have to like that Christian Yelich returned quickly from a setback with his back and that closer Trevor Megill is expected back from an elbow issue soon.

All that said, you do have to wonder if the Brewers’ contact/speed/defense formula can play up in October, where, as we’ve witnessed often in the last decade, you need to be able to hit some balls over the fence. Still, their odds should probably be a little bit higher.

FG World Series odds: 9.0%

How do those odds feel? Hmm. Ask us again on Sept. 29.

Why? It’s all about Trea Turner’s hamstring. Going into Sunday, when Turner got hurt, the Phillies’ odds were at 11.5%. That’s how big a deal his absence is.

But we don’t know if he’ll be absent come October, which makes this all so difficult to judge. The Phillies said it’s a Grade 1 strain and that he’ll return for the postseason, which would obviously be great. But will their igniter, who was on pace for more than 200 hits, more than 100 runs and 40 stolen bases, be rusty from the layoff or what? No telling right now.

Obviously, the Phillies’ World Series hopes had already taken a huge hit with the loss of Zack Wheeler, but they still have enough high-end pitching, offensive firepower and strong October seeding to probably put their odds somewhere above 10 percent, if and only if Turner posts.

(Although, I might point out here that I picked the Phillies to win the World Series at the start of the year, so that should actually put their odds at 0.0%.)

FG World Series odds: 8.9%

How do those odds feel? Perfectly orderly, as opposed to “chaotic.”

Why? The “pitching chaos” stuff was a real pleasure to watch last season when the Tigers went on their out-of-nowhere run to the Division Series. But frankly, they should be above all that by now.

The Tigers’ bullpen has not performed as well this year as last, and, after an iffy Trade Deadline, they are still way too reliant on Tarik Skubal in the rotation to be considered a true favorite to advance all the way to the World Series, even with their likely baked-in seeding advantage. They strike out a lot, too.

None of this is to suggest the Tigers can’t go on a run. Of course they can. Skubal can swing a short series, and manager A.J. Hinch is an expert at deploying his pitching pieces in the postseason. But 8.9% — one measly tick below the top five — seems about right.

FG World Series odds: 7.9%

How do those odds feel? A bit too trusting of a team that’s had so many heartbreaking Septembers and has literally never reached the World Series.

Why? The Mariners have a ton of talent, all the pieces they need to finally get to the Fall Classic. But as we’ve seen down the stretch, they sometimes don’t add up to the sum of their parts and still have to successfully fend off a few clubs for that final Wild Card spot.

It actually wouldn’t be a shock if the M’s rally past the Astros for a division title. But it hasn’t happened yet. So yes, it’s a little odd to be putting their World Series odds ahead of those of the ‘Stros.

FG World Series odds: 7.3%

How do those odds feel? Like the computers are not familiar with the weird things that can happen to the New York Mets.

Why? It’s not as if 7.3% odds are crazy high. But relative to where some other — perhaps comparably talented — teams are on this list, 7.3% feels a bit too trusting of a Mets club that just hasn’t proven trustworthy this year.

The Mets could conceivably go into a Wild Card Series with a rotation made up exclusively of rookies in Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, which is great fun and might even work! But it’s not a bankable enough formula to have them this high.

How do those odds feel? Like even the computers have developed a dangerous case of Astros fatigue that could come back to bite them when Houston goes on yet another run.

Why? Sure, the Astros are not currently in position for a bye, could still squander their division and don’t have the postseason pitching depth they once possessed. But they just have so many players who have been there, done that, and they’ve got Yordan Alvarez back to bashing the bejeezus out of baseballs.

This franchise refuses to fade. When the odds are giving the Astros a 5% chance of winning the World Series, that probably means they have something like a 98% chance of winning the World Series.

FG World Series odds: 4.2%

How do those odds feel? Like the computers are still somehow applying a “Curse of the Billy Goat” tax on this franchise.

Why? The Cubs are not a dominant team, or else they wouldn’t have been steamrolled by the Brew Crew in the division. They also just lost their closer, Daniel Palencia, to injury and have sputtered offensively in the second half. None of that is great.

But as of now, the Cubs do possess the top NL Wild Card spot, which would grant them home cooking for the opening best-of-three series and probably merits a slightly better statistical chance of going the distance than is represented here.

How do those odds feel? Understandably skeptical.

Why? On the one hand, a team just one game out of its division lead, as of this writing, should probably be higher than 4%. But the Padres haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt, because they rarely seem to get the most out of their collection of talent.

The Padres have fewer home runs than any team not named the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have a rotation that hasn’t lived up to its projections. They have a bullpen that just lost a key piece in Jason Adam to an awful quad injury. So no wonder the computers don’t love their chances.

Anyway, it’s the element of surprise that has been so elemental in the identity for a team that is always doing crazy things in the trade market. So if the Padres do go the distance, it’s only appropriate that it comes as a surprise to the oddsmakers, too.

FG World Series odds: 3.6%

How do those odds feel? Like they are apparently anticipating Garrett Crochet to be abducted by aliens between now and October.

Why? It is absolutely fair to temper enthusiasm for a Wild Card team that just lost a game-changing offensive presence in Roman Anthony to an oblique injury. But he could potentially return early in the playoffs, and the Red Sox would be rolling out Crochet and Brayan Bello back to back in a short series.

So these odds feel a tick or two too low.

*Within five games of a playoff spot entering Tuesday

FG World Series odds: Between 0.0 and 0.4%, so … 0%, basically

How do those odds feel: Like they understand math.

Why? We’re doing our due diligence in listing all these clubs, even the sub-.500 squads still somehow within five games of a playoff spot. But what do you want us to tell you? That the Royals should be considered the World Series favorites? Of course not.

Should any of these clubs squeeze in and then go on the run of a lifetime, they will have beaten not only their opponents but also every mathematical model known to humankind.