Given his nickname, perhaps it’s only natural that Julián Álvarez‘s status, form, attitude and future are currently caught in a web of mystery. Álvarez has been La Araña, the Spider, since he was four, and although he’s been weaving dreams for many of the subsequent years, he looks a little bit trapped right now.
Questions abound. Why isn’t he scoring or notably contributing to Atlético Madrid‘s season recently? Why can’t he form a proper partnership with fellow Atléti striker Alexander Sørloth? Can Arsenal afford his buyout clause and would he return to the Premier League? Or will Barcelona, somehow, prise away Atlético’s prize forward to replace Robert Lewandowski?
Meanwhile, in Álvarez’s mind, he must be fearing: Will this sluggish, unimpressive form cost me in the eyes of Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni when it comes to the Albiceleste defending their World Cup title in the U.S., Canada and Mexico this summer?
He can’t say this, so I’ll say it for him: When he turns 26 on Saturday, the best birthday present would be finding out that he’s on the verge of going to a club where the playing system suits him, where the coach has absolute faith in him and sets the team up to serve him, and where that magical elixir of trophy chances smells stronger than it does at Atléti. It’s the very fact that Álvarez looks miserable, a little lost and, worst of all, ineffective that has set Andrea Berta at Arsenal and Deco at Barcelona wondering whether they can lever him away from Atlético.
Just to lay out some evidence that, despite this being a top-class, energetic, inventive and elite goal scorer, he is in the doldrums, here are some guidelines.
From his 20 starts (plus one substitute appearance) in LaLiga, La Araña has seven goals and three assists. But Atléti are so far off the chase that they definitely won’t win the title this season, and the more you look at how Álvarez fits with the hyper-conservative attitude of his countryman coach, Diego Simeone, the more the picture darkens.
Domestically, Álvarez has given just 13 passes to fellow striker Sørloth this season and, in exchange, has received the ball from the big Norwegian — who, for the second season in a row, is much more prolific than Atlético’s No. 19 — 18 times. That, however you spin it, is not a partnership.
Álvarez has shot at goal 41 times, meaning his 7 goals represent a 17% success rate. Off form. No argument there.
Not to support the concept of ugly, thundering, brutish defenders booting a diminutive striker all over the pitch, but, given how Álvarez plays and what threat he should carry, it’s a surprise to find he’s only been fouled 14 times. If he were in dangerous positions, and scoring more, you can bet that count would be higher.
Look at his heat maps and you see a pattern where (in 70% of his Liga matches) they stretch very nearly from box to box. That’s not where a prolific, threatening forward should be performing. Álvarez is winning the hearts and minds of supporters and teammates with huge defensive efforts, but that’s not what he’s paid for.
His high-intensity mid-length running ranks at 217th in LaLiga. Far worse, his number of sprints, the bread and butter of a threatening striker, rank at 9th within the Atléti squad and 235th in the league. Ball winning, given all the time he’s tracking back and forward the length of the pitch? Well, he’s ranked 403rd in LaLiga for that.
The cherry on the icing? He hasn’t scored domestically since Nov. 1. For someone whose stat line otherwise reads 40 goals and 13 assists in 86 appearances for Atlético, it’s clear: there is a problem.
The very picture of an unfulfilled, under-performing star who, picked up, brushed down and given a new start at an attacking, system-based, well-coached, ambitious side like Arsenal or Barcelona would likely start posting heroic numbers instead of ho-hum figures.
In the Champions League, the picture is markedly different. Lesser teams like Eintracht Frankfurt, Union St.-Gilloise and PSV Eindhoven who don’t know Atléti well have succumbed to their “produce big moments” style and, in that competition, Álvarez has four goals in six matches. His strike against Inter Milan in a 2-1 win over last season’s beaten finalists was a hint of what should be being produced more regularly.
It’s manna from heaven that if they beat Bodo/Glimt in Madrid on Wednesday, Atlético have a big chance of finishing in the all-important top eight. If they don’t, the sharks will circle: Álvarez is a sublime, committed, clean-living, inventive, experienced footballer who’s about to enter the prime six or seven years of his career.
But, here come the obstacles.
Not only is he contracted to Atléti until June 2030, his buyout clause is well set: €500 million. Unreachable.
Financially, do Atlético need to move on from the 25-year-old? No.
Atléti have taken in not far from €148 million from Champions League business alone in the past season and a half, with the prospect of much, much more to come if they progress, say, to the last eight or last four in the coming months. Atlético are also in the process of of dramatically changing their ownership and, as a result, enjoying financial buoyancy — thanks to the buy-in by Apollo Sports Capital.
Álvarez, in interviews, has coped well with suggestions that he might be in favor of a move away from Los Colchoneros.
Recently, promoting a sponsorship, he was asked by Marca: “You’re often linked with a move to the Camp Nou. Does that bother you?”
Álvarez answered: “Look, none of that bothers me at all. I try not to go seeking that kind of speculation, but I’m aware of it. It’s more what’s said on social media than in reality. I try to abstract myself from all that and think about me, about improving as a footballer and about winning.”
Not, in my view, any kind of denial at all. Most tellingly, Álvarez is playing like a potential superstar who’s increasingly sure that, once again, he’s “wrong place, wrong time.”
The only remedies are crystal clear: accept that your golden handcuffs (that €500 million release clause) are unbreakable and get on with it, or work out how to let your employers know that either Arsenal or Barcelona is your preferred workplace, that you’re happy to make a fuss about getting there, and, like Antoine Griezmann in his day, push — publicly and privately — for a negotiated exit.
Mikel Arteta and Hansi Flick will be buying their popcorn and settling down to watch developments like hyper-interested spectators over the coming weeks and months. Drawn into the spider’s web.
