It is going to be a clash of the titans on Saturday at the Breslin Center when a pair of top ten blue blood teams square off with their perfect records on the line. The game is at Noon ET and will be televised on FOX. It is easy to say that Duke Basketball has been Michigan State’s biggest roadblock throughout the Izzo years. In our coach’s career, MSU has gone 3-14 against the Blue Devils, and that includes losing to them four times in the NCAA Tournament. Even though Duke is no longer coached by Mike Krzyzewski (I would not be surprised to see him in the audience on Saturday), their new coach, Jon Scheyer, has picked up where his predecessor left off when he got the win in the 2023 Champions Classic.
But as is the case in college basketball, each year is a new team. We already know about the new look of this year’s Spartans. Now let’s get into the Blue Devils 2025-26 squad. Unless you have been living under a rock, then you know the star of the show is Cameron Boozer. Nine games into his collegiate career, the Blue Devil legacy is averaging 23.6 points per game, tied for 2nd in the country. Amazingly, Cameron (his father definitely named him after Duke’s home stadium, right?) also leads Duke in rebounds (9.3), assists (3.7), and steals (1.7). He is shooting the ball at a 56.2% rate including 37.5% on his 3s. He will most likely be named player of the year when it is all said and done and go on to be the first pick in the next NBA Draft.
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What we need to determine is if Duke is a one-man show or if there are other names that could give MSU some issues. Outside of Boozer, three other players have had one game where they led the team in scoring. Patrick Ngongba and Isaiah Evans, who both are averaging 12.6 PPG, each did it once, as did Dame Sarr (6.7 PPG) when he put up 19 against Army. Duke matches MSU in depth. They are playing nine guys who are averaging at least 13 minutes a game, six of whom are over 20, and all 9 are averaging at least 5 points per game. To compare that to MSU, we have nine guys averaging at least 12 minutes (11.9 to be exact), but only 7 players above that 5 PPG threshold. That accounts for the difference in Duke’s 89.1 PPG to MSU’s 78.6.
And if Duke’s offensive prowess, 32nd nationally, was not enough to worry you, there is the Blue Devil defense to contend with. Duke only gives up 59.6 points to their opponents, which is fourth in the NCAA, and a tad better than MSU’s 6th ranked defense of 60.4. In rebounds, steals, and blocks, Duke’s stats are all slightly better than MSU’s. But here is where context comes into play. I am going to say that MSU’s schedule has been tougher thus far.
I am going to look at the NET Rankings of the teams on Duke and MSU’s respective schedules. Duke has played five non-major programs so far this season: Indiana State (212), Western Carolina (268), Howard (305), Army (320), and Niagara (343). Those five teams have an average NET of 289.6. MSU’s four non-major opponents were Colgate (145), San Jose State (257), Detroit (292), and East Carolina (300). That average is 248.5, a difference of 41 spots on the scale. MSU has played tougher non-major opponents.
But let’s also look at the harder teams on each’s schedule. Duke has triumphs over Kansas (21), Florida (26), and Texas (94), while MSU has beaten North Carolina (13), Kentucky (20), and Iowa (34). Both teams beat Arkansas (33) so I did not factor in the Razorbacks. Among those majors, Duke’s opponents have an average NET of 47; MSU’s top opponents sit at 22.3, a difference of nearly 25 spots. MSU has played the better major conference teams as well.
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And to take this a step further, Duke’s margin of victory in their 3 major conference games (excluding Arkansas) has been 9.33 points. Michigan State has beaten their 3 major conference opponents (excluding Arkansas) by 17.33 points.
Let’s get back to the players in this game. Over the years, we have seen many examples of an opposing player recording a career high against the Spartans. But we have also seen many times where MSU still won that game. Against Duke, we very well may see Cameron Boozer blow past the 35 he has already hit twice. If he is getting enough volume to score that many, that means he has been battling inside against Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler, Coen Carr, Jesse McCulloch, and Cam Ward (if he plays). On the season, Boozer has taken 130 FG attempts. No one on MSU has more than 80 (Kohler). Next up on Duke is Isaiah Evans with 90. Those two players account for over 40% of Dukes shots on the season. Even better, of Evans 90 FGAs, 62 have been from downtown, and he only shoots 32% from there.
Here’s what MSU needs to do. Accept the fact that Boozer is going to have the ball a lot, will shoot a lot, and will score a lot. But he also will have his share of misses, because as we know, spending a whole game against an MSU defense will tire anyone out. MSU needs to stay disciplined and let our big men deal with Boozer one-on-one. Only collapse when he is down low and we know he is going up for it. The MSU defense needs to stay honest on everyone else and make Duke one dimensional. If Evans wants to jack 3s, make him do it with a hand in his face. The other big minute guys – Ngongba, Evans, Sarr, and Caleb Foster – need to corralled so Boozer can’t feed them for the open shot.
In Duke’s win over Florida, Boozer drew a double team and found Evans for the open three to give them the one-point lead at the end. Boozer helped get the defensive stop on Florida’s final possession and the Blue Devils stole a win. But that happened because Florida left a man wide open. MSU has the defenders to shut down every non-Cameron player on the Duke roster. I think that will happen.
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At the same time, MSU is going to have their hands full on offense. At most spots, Duke could have a size advantage, and that is particularly true with the MSU backcourt where Fears, Teng, Ugo, and Fort all are 6’4” or less. Duke only has one player below 6’5” – Cameron’s twin, Cayden. Since we don’t have the height advantage, we are going to have to beat them with our speed and athleticism.
Lastly, while this year’s Spartan squad is not overly reliant on the three ball, with only 1 in every three shots coming from long range, it is nice to know that in the 2 games against Kentucky and North Carolina, MSU shot 50% on 3s in both games. In three of the last five, MSU has hit at least 45%. On the other hand, Duke takes almost half their shots from deep, 46.9% to be exact. In their last three games, they have shot 28, 35, and 27% on their triples, trending down from their season rate of 36%.
So here is the summary. MSU needs to remain disciplined on defense and make Cameron Boozer do the majority of the lifting by himself, they need to get rebounds so they can push the ball on offense, and they need to force Duke into contested three-point shots because they will probably not pass them up even when guarded.
Are you feeling optimistic about it? The TOC crew is split on it.
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Mike is saying 75-73 Duke, and Steve is even more bearish with his 82-70 prediction. Lucas thinks it will be a lower scoring affair and is going with MSU 68-63. And I am also taking the Green & White, 77-74. Comment with your predictions. Anyone going to be at the Breslin on Saturday?
