Tom Aspinall makes his first defense as undisputed heavyweight champion at UFC 321 on Saturday against an opponent who has already tried and failed twice at claiming that same title.
After making a fast rise up the ranks, Ciryl Gane came up short when he dropped a decision to Francis Ngannou in 2022 and then things got even worse when Jon Jones tapped him out barely two minutes into their fight in 2023. A two-fight win streak put Gane in position for another title fight, but Aspinall is an overwhelming favorite to win, which puts the champion in a tough position.
With Ngannou no longer in the UFC and Jones likely angling for a fight against Alex Pereira in 2026, Aspinall faces an uncertain future as the best heavyweight in the world without any truly compelling fights awaiting him.
“[Tom Aspinall reminds me of] Vitali Klitschko when he was a champion for a long time,” UFC legend Matt Brown said on the latest episode of The Fighter vs. The Writer. “Set numerous records. It took forever for people to give him any real credit for being a great heavyweight champion. I’m not sure he still gets the credit he deserves. But it was exactly that because of the lack of competition. The guys that he was beating up was just subpar. He would basically fight anybody over in Europe because he would sell out 100,000 tickets and make however many hundreds of millions of dollars. He’s like ,‘I don’t care who you are really.’ He didn’t give a shit. He’d just jab them for 12 rounds and go cash his check.
“But that’s kind of what it reminds me of. I think that’s a great question. Without the Jon Jones fight, if it never happens, I’m not sure. What’s he got to do? He can beat all these guys and the title defense record is three [in a row] by Stipe [Miocic]. Who’s three guys that we’re going to be fired up about him beating right now?”
A quick look at the heavyweight rankings reveals the problem Aspinall has ahead of him, assuming he gets through Gane at UFC 321.
On the same night he’s competing in the main event, Jailton Almeida faces Alexander Volkov in a potential No. 1 contender bout with the winner possibly moving on to fight for the title in 2026. The problem is Almeida is a suffocating grappler, but his style doesn’t exactly lend itself to exciting fights, and he got knocked out in his biggest fight to date when he faced Curtis Blaydes in 2024.
Aspinall just recently torched Blaydes with a first-round knockout and he also holds a submission win over Volkov when they met just over three years ago. Add to that, Aspinall also holds a knockout win over Sergei Pavlovich, the only other top 5 ranked fighter available currently.
In other words, there aren’t a lot of options for Aspinall if he doesn’t convince Jones to fight him, which is by far the biggest and most marketable matchup available at heavyweight. That leaves Aspinall stuck in a position where he’s clearly the best in the world but competing in a largely dreadful division.
“I think the only chance Tom has is he has to win spectacularly multiple times,” Brown explained. “He can’t go just win. It’s got to be spectacular.
“That’s exactly what he needs. He needs to go out there and do something spectacular and be like ‘I’m so far above these motherf*ckers that I am up there with f*cking Jon Jones, I am up there with the greats.’ That’s where it’s a little bit disastrous if this is a close fight [with Gane] Because it’s like you’re the best of the worst right now.”
If the Jones fight never happens, Aspinall might have to settle for opponents that aren’t necessarily going to elevate him to all-time great status in heavyweight history. Maybe none of that matters to him but Brown points out Aspinall is coming along at a time when even past champions like Ngannou, Stipe Miocic, or even Daniel Cormier aren’t around any longer.
That leaves Aspinall as a unique, perhaps once-in-a-lifetime talent without anybody to really push him to the next level in his career.
“It sucks he’s doing all the right things and the opportunities are just not coming his way,” Brown said. “But I also believe strongly this sport has it’s way of working its way out. He goes out and keeps doing the right things, it’s going to work out for him but right now we don’t see a path for legendary greatness for Tom Aspinall.
“That’s the barrier that we’re not seeing that he can overcome. There’s no direction towards that barrier to overcome it. That’s an unfortunate problem.”
