Best value bets for UFC 319: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Dricus du Plessis

Finally. That must be what most MMA fans are thinking with Khamzat Chimaev getting his first title shot. Having burst onto the scene early in the COVID-19 pandemic, Chimaev benefited from the strange dynamics that affected global sports at that time. He made his debut on “Fight Island,” the UFC’s initial solution to creating a “sports bubble” to allow competitions.

Chimaev was dominant in his debut and was quickly rebooked for another Fight Island card, setting a UFC mark for fastest turnaround in just 10 days. He would go on to earn performance bonuses in each of his first five appearances, and thus the legend was solidified.

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Given his rapid rise and dominant performances, it’s perhaps surprising it has taken this long to earn a title shot. But mixed in along the way were injuries, fight cancellations and eventually a change in weight class. Here we are, finally. Time to see if the hype train reaches the top of the mountain, or if the established champion gets to play one of the biggest spoilers in recent history.

Here are my best bets for UFC 319, which takes place Saturday at the United Center in Chicago.

Khamzat Chimaev (-210) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+170)

Every Chimaev fan knows he’s an undefeated freak. And though he’s 8-0 in the UFC, far fewer know du Plessis is actually 9-0 in the UFC over slightly less time and against — on average — heavier opponents. But streaks are less important than performance metrics, which is what I’ll rely on when evaluating the matchup. I just find it interesting Chimaev has been a massive favorite in all of his UFC appearances, while DDP has quietly accomplished more as a pick ’em or underdog in plenty of his fights.

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Chimaev’s statistics are extremely good, with just one odd exception of not avoiding punches. When you’re that good, I guess defending punches matters less. But when lining these two up for comparison, I also would make Chimaev the favorite. Yet the current odds of roughly 2-to-1 for Chimaev are just a touch high for me, given the dogged wins DDP has earned against elite middleweights.

The first big question will be how Chimaev’s first takedown attempt goes. We shouldn’t have to wait long, as he attempts one takedown every 48 seconds while standing. DDP’s takedown defense is below average at just 50%, though he’s only faced six attempts over nine fights. Perhaps opponents have avoided testing him on the mat out of respect.

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Chimaev has never been controlled on the ground — not even for one second — but his only two fights to go to the cards have been against established grapplers (Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman), so that’s where I think the best angle is. DDP has used his grappling in most of his fights, and more often in his title fight appearances. His ground game may not turn the fight to his favor, but it could be enough to survive the early onslaught from Chimaev and potentially force later rounds.

While the analytics suggest a bit of value on DDP with such a clear plus-money return, I’m still wary he has simply taken advantage of opponents who were predominantly single-threat strikers during his title run. Facing his toughest ground threat to date gives me pause on the very slight lean toward the ‘dog, though I’m left hoping DDP does indeed outperform and takes the fight over 2.5 rounds.

Best bets: du Plessis or pass, over 2.5 rounds

Chase Hooper (-285) vs. Alexander Hernandez (+225)

Chimaev isn’t the only elite grappler on the card. Chase Hooper has matured inside the Octagon, recently dominating one of the most seasoned wrestlers of all time in Jim Miller. Hooper is another fighter who wastes little time between takedown attempts, and while Hernandez has above-average defense, it’s likely a matter of time before he gets taken down.

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That scenario has me checking two important metrics for Hernandez that could be countermeasures against an overly assertive grappler: knockdown power and submissions. Unfortunately for Hernandez, he’s below average in both of those metrics. The most likely scenario is Hooper will pursue, using strikes as a setup for takedowns — and once there, keeping the fight there.

Hernandez’s best chance is a counter against Hooper’s poor head-strike defense. Hooper has been dropped four times, but three came in one fight he lost by TKO, and the other was in a fight he went on to win. So I like Hooper to remain resilient and put the fight on the ground where he can backpack his way to victory.

Best bet: Hooper to win (-285)

Edson Barboza (-150) vs. Drakkar Klose (+125)

This matchup ultimately will be a striker versus grappler dynamic, featuring one of the most prolific knockout artists in UFC history returning to the Octagon for his 31st appearance. With 16 career knockdowns, Barboza’s knockdown rate is much higher than the UFC average, and he’s scored those knockdowns via impressive and diverse methods.

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Klose looks average on paper and is unlikely to want to stand and trade (or eat leg kicks) for long. He’ll be undersized and outranged against Barboza, even more reason for Klose to change levels. Klose’s roots are in wrestling, but his takedown success rate is below average, while Barboza’s defense has been solid against over 100 career takedown attempts from opponents.

Overall, these factors back Barboza as a worthy favorite. Let’s hope he still has enough left in the tank for what is likely his last fight before turning 40.

Best bet: Barboza to win (-150)

Michal Oleksiejczuk (-225) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+185)

The stats here scream finish, one way or the other, in yet another striker versus grappler matchup. Oleksiejczuk is an understandable favorite, given all his advantages on the feet. With superior accuracy and knockdown power, Meerschaert’s loose defense and aging and damaged chin are clear ingredients for a striking finish.

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However, Meerschaert has been here before and knows he needs to get this fight to the mat. Luckily for him, his opponent’s takedown defense is poor, and he has a glaring weakness defending submissions. That combination of factors means we could see a Meerschaert submission prop past +300.

You might use “Does Not Go the Distance” in a chalk-filled parlay, but also shop for maximum return on a small upset submission play.

Best bet: Meerschaert-Oleksiejczuk under 1.5 rounds