Sunday’s Week 11 NFL slate wraps up with a matchup of NFC heavyweights, as the Detroit Lions visit the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles on “Sunday Night Football.”
Both teams sit atop their respective divisions and are among the Super Bowl favorites.
The Eagles (7-2) have won three straight, last week knocking off the Green Bay Packers. The Lions have alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks, winning last week on the road against the Washington Commanders.
Philadelphia heads into Sunday night’s matchup as a 2.5-point favorite.
Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Eric Moody offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET Sportsbook. 
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Lions team total UNDER 22.5 (-110)
Maldonado: The Lions’ scoring ability collapses against top-tier defensive fronts, and Philly is structured to limit the Lions’ path to touchdowns. Jared Goff‘s spike weeks only happen against bad defenses, and the Eagles’ defense is peaking after adding Jaelan Phillips and activating Nolan Smith Jr. a few weeks ago. This unit is generating nearly a 50% pressure rate while blitzing just 12% of the time, which can wreck Detroit’s timing. Jahmyr Gibbs looked great last week against Washington, but the Eagles are top-five in yards allowed before contact and haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. Matchup, metrics and regression all point to the Lions having difficulty on the road.
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Jalen Hurts to go OVER 204.5 passing yards (-115), OVER 1.5 TD passes (-110)
Loza: The Lions’ defense is more susceptible through the air than via the ground. While the Eagles employ a run-friendly approach, I expect them to test Detroit’s passing defense, especially given a spread of just 2.5 points. Hurts is averaging over 206 passing yards per game and has cleared the above line in four of five games in which the opposing offense has posted over 20 points. Additionally, the Lions’ defense has given up at least two passing scores to QBs (J.J. McCarthy and Marcus Mariota) in two straight outings.
Saquon Barkley to go UNDER 70.5 rushing yards (-110)
Moody: Barkley has struggled as a runner this season, going under this line in seven of nine games. Now, he and the Eagles face one of the top defensive fronts in the league. The Lions are allowing just 94.3 rushing yards per game, the eighth fewest in the league. Given the matchup, the Eagles would be wise to lean more on Jalen Hurts and the passing game Sunday night.
A.J. Brown to go OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Even though DeVonta Smith has led the Eagles in targets in three straight games and four of the past five, I can see the pendulum swinging back to Brown, who has just one game with at least 10 targets this season. Detroit has a stout defensive front against the run but ranks last in the league in pass rush win rate. Hurts should have ample time to find his playmakers, and I expect Brown to be heavily targeted Sunday night.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Philadelphia is 12-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under Nick Sirianni (six straight covers).
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The Eagles are the only team in the NFL this season to not be listed as underdogs; this marks the Lions’ fourth game as an underdog.
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Detroit is 17-5 ATS on the road since 2023.
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The Lions are 12-4 ATS in prime-time games under Dan Campbell (13-3 outright).
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Each of the past nine meetings between these teams has gone over the total.
