Week 15‘s slate of Sunday games wraps up with the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Minnesota Vikings on “Sunday Night Football.”
The Cowboys are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive after seeing their three-game win streak come to an end last week against the Detroit Lions. The Cowboys (6-6-1) are in second place in the NFC East but are +600 to make the playoffs.
The Vikings (5-8) are coming off a win over the Washington Commanders that snapped a four-game slide, but their playoff chances are almost nil (250-1).
The Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites at home Sunday night against the Vikings.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Ben Solak and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop bets, DFS plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
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Game picks
Vikings +5.5 (-110)
Maldonado: It’s the right kind of uncomfortable. The Cowboys can score, but they face a Minnesota defense that has been lights-out against the pass for a month, living in two-high and forcing quarterbacks into long and boring drives. That’s where the Cowboys stall. And the Dallas secondary has been a weekly donation box for WR1s, which finally gives the Vikings offense a real path to keep pace.
Notable player props, bets
J.J. McCarthy first-quarter passing yards 40+ (-124)
Solak: McCarthy has been remarkably better on-script than off-script. On the Vikings’ first two possessions of the game, he has a dropback success rate of 50% and a completion percentage of 71.4% — he averages 8.2 yards per pass attempt. On all other possessions, he has a 36% success rate and 52.4% completion percentage. His yards per attempt fall to 5.5. Given that the Cowboys are a pass-funnel defense, I do want some exposure to McCarthy through the air, but I’m interested only when he’s still on Kevin O’Connell scripted plays.
Javonte Williams over 70.5 yards rushing (-115)
Bowen: Williams has rushed for 71 or more yards in three of his past five games, and he gets a Vikings defense that leans on split-safety coverages. Williams will see some light fronts to attack against a Minnesota team that is giving up 126.8 rushing yards per game.
Aaron Jones Sr. over 14.5 receiving yards (-113)
Loza: Jones’ production has underwhelmed, having logged just a single run of 20 or more yards all season (Week 9). And although he has averaged a meager 16.7 receiving yards per game (RB39), he has managed to register at least 15 receiving yards in five of his past seven outings. Given the Cowboys’ bolstered defensive line, McCarthy figures to pepper Jones in the hopes of advancing the ball and keeping the contest close. With a yards-per-reception average of 7.5, Jones needs to convert on just two targets to get to this number. He should Sunday night.
Quinnen Williams under 4.5 tackles + assists (-145)
Walder: Williams has been playing well since he was traded to the Cowboys, but this tackle line is simply too high. Williams has gone over this mark in just four of 12 games this season and zero times as a Cowboy. It’s possible that my model could be convinced if the Cowboys were heavy underdogs in the game — thus predicting a run-heavy game script from their opponent — but that is not the case on Sunday night against McCarthy and the Vikings. Heading into Sunday, there was no tackle prop on the board my model liked more than Williams 4.5 at -145.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Dak Prescott ($15,600): Prescott will have to take some underneath throws versus the Vikings’ two-deep shells, but he has topped 300 yards passing in three straight games, with multiple touchdowns in two.
Also in my lineup: George Pickens ($14,700). Let’s roll with the upside of Pickens versus the Vikings’ cornerbacks. Pickens has seen at least nine targets in six straight games, and he has the explosive-play ability to take the top off the defense.
Walder’s recommendations
Javonte Williams ($14,100): The game outcome I want to back here is a Cowboys blowout with the Vikings struggling to move the ball at all. That could make Prescott a reasonable captain, too, but my thought here is that Dallas could be so far ahead that they take the ball out of Prescott’s hands early. Meanwhile, Williams could get a heavy workload and, ideally, a couple of scores with Dallas in control of the game.
Also in my lineup: Cowboys DST ($4,400). This fits the theme of an easy Cowboys win, but I also want the defense in here because I want to specifically fade McCarthy. He’s coming off his best game, but it came against the Commanders, who have arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL. I need to see McCarthy string together multiple weeks against better competition before I believe he doesn’t represent a big opportunity for opposing fantasy defenses.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Five straight Vikings games have gone under the total. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in that span.
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Overs are 9-4 in Cowboys games this season, the highest over rate in the NFL.
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The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their past five home games.
