It’s good to be back.
College football season finally begins in earnest this week, but the offseason/week 0 did manage to provide some last minute drama. There has been a lot of talk about the SEC finally adding a 9th conference game to their schedule to match what the Big 12 and Big Ten have done for a long time. There’s also been a lot of talk about rivalries. Who is a rival? Who isn’t? How should we talk about it? And who do we deserve to see on our schedule every year?
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I hate to give the SEC too much credit, but the scheduling model they are adopting with the 9th game is the perfect way to have a 16 team conference. For those who did not see, each team will have 3 “protected” rivals that they play annually. Think Alabama playing Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU each year no matter what. The Big 12 took the opposite approach to scheduling, protecting only 4 rivalries across the whole conference. Most notably, this will end the annual streak of playing Farmageddon (yeah, I said it) between Iowa State and Kansas State. No matter how Brett Yormark tries to spin it, there is no sense in having a bunch of small groups of schools with shared history in a conference together, but not have them play each other. That’s why right here, right now, I am going to propose the perfect set up for football scheduling.
POD 1 (The West)
Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Utah
The Big 12 values the Holy War and the Territorial Cup, and so do I. These schools are a natural fit together, and would help control some travel needs.
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POD 2 (Big 8)
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado
Let’s start with the obvious: there’s no reason for the Kansas schools and Iowa State to not play every year. They are the closest to each other geographically, and it helps fan interest to be able to travel short distances. Colorado gets kicked over here instead of being out west, but they spent a long time in the Big 8 with us already. There’s plenty of shared history.
POD 3 (Texas-ish)
Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
This group of schools have been together in the Big 12 for awhile, so Houston gets the boot in favor of keeping Oklahoma State with their longtime conference foes. Any game between these teams will combine for 100 total points.
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POD 4 (AAC)
West Virginia, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston
West Virginia does get a short straw in my alignment. For the longest time, they were the odd ones out east of everyone else. At least here they get 2 opponents in the Eastern time zone. Houston, UCF, and Cincy basically ran the AAC before coming over here. West Virginia-Cincinnati is a fun and worthy rivalry. We can make this work.
I’m available for a consulting fee if Yormark wants to reach out. What I’d like to see from the Big 12 going forward is an understanding that TV doesn’t care who is playing. The league should at least do a service to the fans of these schools.
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Alright, on to the 2025 football season. Even with the early start to Iowa State’s season, the last few weeks without football continue to be the longest stretch on the calendar. It felt legitimately great last week to preview a real game, and the aftermath of Iowa State’s win in Dublin has reinvigorated that passion for college football. That’s great timing, because this week is the main event. Some quick housekeeping for this column: every bet will be for 1.1 units with assumed -110 odds. Think betting $11 to win $10. I’m also not picking the FCS games, as those lines won’t come out until basically game day. The Big 12 has all kinds of intriguing FBS matchups this week. It’s a great opportunity for our teams (yes, I said our – it’s the Big 12 against the world right now) to show out against the other power conferences. I continue to believe this conference is slept on nationally. There is money to be made by paying closer attention here than anyone else. Let’s get down to it.
THE GAMES
Jacksonville State (0-0) at UCF (0-0)
Kickoff: Thursday 6:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: UCF -20.5 | O/U: 52.5
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I don’t have the stats to back it up, but I feel like as long as I’ve been gambling, UCF has played on the opening Thursday night and scored 1,000,000 points against an inferior opponent. Seems easy enough.
Pick: UCF -20.5
Nebraska (0-0) vs Cincinnati (0-0)
Kickoff: Thursday 8:00pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Nebraska -6.5 | O/U: 52.5
It’s Travis Kelce’s alma mater, at his home stadium, the week he announced his engagement to Taylor Swift. It’s basically written in the stars. We’re in our Dylan Raiola is overrated and Matt Rhule is a bum era.
Pick: Cincinnati +6.5
Auburn (0-0) at Baylor (0-0)
Kickoff: Friday 7:00pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Auburn -2.5 | O/U: 58.5
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I absolutely love this spot for Baylor. Auburn is a mess that can’t decide on a starting QB, but I do love their skill position players. It’s Texas in August so the kickoff temperature should be roughly 372 degrees, which means defenses will be tired. My read on Baylor this year is that they will be in a ton of high scoring games, starting here. I think Baylor wins the game outright and both teams end up in the 30s.
Pick: Over 58.5
Georgia Tech (0-0) at Colorado (0-0)
Kickoff: Friday 7:00pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Georgia Tech -4.5 | O/U: 52.5
Who even knows what to expect from Deion this year? Is it bad vibes if your mascot retires due to “indifference to running” or is it rooting a bad culture fit out of the building? I very much relate to an indifference to running myself. Maybe that’s a sign.
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Pick: Colorado +4.5
Hawaii (1-0) at Arizona (0-0)
Kickoff: Saturday 9:30pm | TV: TNT | The Line: Arizona -17.5 | O/U: 52.5
Hawaii was a feel good story from week 1, but this is gambling, and we are going to capitalize on the positive attention they got from the public. Plus the QB is hurt, I think? Stanford is the worst P4 program this year. Arizona needs this win, as I don’t think they are on track to have many this season.
Pick: Arizona -17.5
Utah (0-0) at UCLA (0-0)
Kickoff: Saturday 10:00pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Utah -6 | O/U: 52.5
I’m high on Utah this year. Their QB is Devon Dampier, who started at New Mexico last year. If anyone watched New Mexico games last year, you know that he is the best athlete on the field every time he plays. Utah also brings back a ton of offensive lineman. They will bully teams in the run game. If Dampier can pass at an average level, they’ll win a ton of games, starting with this one.
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Pick: Utah -6
TCU (0-0) at North Carolina (0-0)
Kickoff: Monday 7:00pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: TCU -3.5 | O/U: 56.5
Could TCU sneaky make the Big 12 championship game? Josh Hoover is the best QB in the conference not named Rocco Becht. While I’d like to take the Frogs here, I see too much unknown from North Carolina. If I know anything about Belichick, it’s that he knows defense. Without much more to go on, I can see a low scoring game happening.
Pick: Under 56.5
BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY
Indiana -23.5 vs Old Dominion
We know the deal with Coach Cig and Indiana. They will not play anyone in the non-conference, and they will try to win these games by as much as possible. I’m not saying he knows the spread, but I am positive that he’ll try to run up the score. I’m also positive that Old Dominion isn’t providing much resistance.
Enjoy the games!
Season Record: 0-0
