The 42nd Breeders’ Cup Thoroughbred World Championships take place Friday and Saturday from Del Mar, California. The two-day, 14-race event starts with Future Stars Friday, which features five juvenile (two-year-old) races. On Saturday, the Breeders’ Cup will showcase nine more races across different surfaces and divisions, including the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Sovereignty, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, had been the 6-5 morning-line favorite but was scratched due to a fever. Sovereignty’s defection leaves a field of nine for the Classic. Fierceness, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez, is now the favorite at 5-2 (was the second choice at 4-1) and will break from the No. 1 post.
Post time for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is 6:25 p.m. ET and will be televised on NBC.
Who will be crowned “Horse of the Year?” Let me tee it up for you.
The horses
1. Fierceness (5-2): Last year’s Classic runner-up is now the favorite to win and has the speed to do it.
2. Baeza (10-1): Won the Pennsylvania Derby and is peaking at the right time. Finished third behind Sovereignty and Journalism in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. The half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and a true contender on Saturday.
3. Nevada Beach (20-1): Bob Baffert’s 3-year-old wild card. It’s only the horse’s fifth race, so lack of experience is a concern, but he has the speed and could be an interesting long shot.
4. Contrary Thinking (50-1): Strategically entered by trainer Chad Brown to up the pace and set up Sierra Leone.
5. Forever Young (6-1): The Japanese horse finished third last year behind Sierra Leone and Fierceness. Has never finished worse than third in 12 career starts and has nine wins.
7. Sierra Leone (7-2): Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic champion will try to become the second horse to win back-to-back Classics (Tiznow in 2000, 2001).
8. Mindframe (6-1): Beat Sierra Leone in the Stephen Foster Stakes.
9. Journalism (5-1): The Preakness Stakes and Haskell Stakes winner, Journalism finished second to Sovereignty in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. He heads into the Breeders’ Cup with a new jockey, Jose Ortiz.
10. Antiquarian (10-1): Another potential long shot, Antiquarian won the Jockey Club Gold Cup and has two wins and two second-place finishes in four starts this year.
There’s a rabbit in the race!
In horse racing, “rabbits” are entered into races, not to win, but to ensure a fast early pace in order to help the chances of a late-running stablemate. In this case, Contrary Thinking is the rabbit and Sierra Leone is his stablemate, both horses trained by Chad Brown.
The plan is to use the early speed of Contrary Thinking to prevent any horse from getting too comfortable up front and set the race up for Sierra Leone to be able close and win. Fierceness, the favorite, is the only other horse in the field with legit early speed, which is a huge edge for this 1 1/4-mile distance. Contrary Thinking could ultimately spoil the race strategy for Fierceness by tiring him out too soon.
Mike Repole, owner of Fierceness, had requested that Contrary Thinking not be allowed to race, saying that a horse must be entered with the intent to win. Repole, who has two horses in the field (Mindframe), has been calling Contrary Thinking an emotional support rabbit on social media.
Take me to the window
Among the notable betting options are:
Win: Picking the winning horse; Place: Picking a horse to finish first or second; Show: Picking a horse to finish first, second or third; Exacta: Picking the top two horses in the exact order; Trifecta: Picking the top three horses in the exact order; Box: In wagers such as exactas and trifectas, covering all permutations of the picked horses.
This is one of the strongest Breeders’ Cup fields we have seen in recent years. Eight horses have a legit shot of winning. Pace makes the race, and you always want to find value. Therefore, this is how I’m playing the Breeder’s Cup Classic:
Anita’s plays
Win: 2. Baeza (10-1)
Exacta Box: 1-2-5-7 (a $1 exacta box with four horses would cost $12)
