The Washington State Cougars are nearly set to battle for all of the potatoes against the Utah State Aggies on Monday morning in Boise, and the betting market anticipates a tight one.
Currently on FanDuel, both the Cougars and Aggies are listed as -108 on the moneyline, with WSU at -1.5 (-102) for the spread. The total is at 49.5. After this matchup was announced, the Aggies opened between a 3 and 4 point favorite. Since then, money has come in on the Cougs to bring the line down to virtually even. The total has ticked down a little, starting in the low 50s and coming down to 49.5.
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I agree with the public and like the Cougars to win on Monday. I made the line -2.5 using my numbers, so I’ve liked this since the jump. WSU will be without running back Kirby Vorhees, who is entering the transfer portal, but he is so far the only notable name we know that won’t be playing. Other players who have entered the portal will still have the opportunity to play in the bowl game, so we may not know exactly who will still be suiting up or not until kickoff.
The Aggies have a potent offense, scoring 30.3 points per game, led by a passing offense that sits 44th in the nation in passing yards per game. However, they will have to line up against a Cougar defense that finished the regular season ranked as the 18th best in passing defense, only surrendering 185.5 passing yards per game. I think the Cougar defense will be able to shut down the Aggie offense. The question is, what will the WSU offense look like?
While it still will be Danny Freund calling the plays, maybe he’ll open it up a little bit and let Zevi Eckhaus sling the ball a little more in his final game as a Coug. There’s a possibility that some of the conservative playcalling this year was from Jimmy Rogers, rather than Freund. I’ll lean into the upside of the Cougar offense, especially against a weaker Aggie defense that ranked 96th in scoring defense.
Since I like the matchup for WSU’s defense, I’ll also take the under 49.5 as well as the under 24.5 team total for Utah State. WSU has only allowed more than 24 points twice in a game, and that was all the way back in September. They held two college football playoff teams, Ole Miss and James Madison, to 24 points. WSU also doesn’t take a whole lot of risks offensively once they take a lead, which has led to nine of WSU’s 12 games going under their total.
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As an added bonus, I’ll throw together a little same-game parlay for the fun of it. For the SGP, I’ll take two of the bets I mentioned above: WSU moneyline and Utah State team total under. I’ll also take a shot at Leo Pulalasi running in a touchdown. Without Vorhees, somebody will need to take the goal-line carries, so I’ll grab Pulalasi at +195. The parlay with these three legs comes out to +438 on FanDuel. Not too shabby!
So far this bowl season, I have an 8-3 record in predicting the spread solely using my model to make my own spreads and bet accordingly. My only losses, however, haven’t been close. Boise State +8.5 (lost by 28), Kennesaw State +4.5 (lost by 35) and Memphis +4.5 (lost by 24). A big shoutout to the backdoor cover by James Madison last night to get +20.5 home.
