Eleven weeks into the season, NFL favorites have a winning record against the spread and more games have gone over the total than under it — but it’s close.
The chalk was 83-79 against the spread ahead of the Sunday night game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions. Underdogs have won approximately one-third of games, and there have been 86 overs and 76 unders.
Those results have been positive for customers. DraftKings, when reporting its quarterly earnings, cited “customer-friendly results” leading to a downturn in revenue.
“The afternoon games just have not seemed to go our way much this year in the NFL,” John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said. “A lot of favorites winning and covering and a lot of games going over in that window.”
Caesars Sportsbook reported similar results in the NFL for its customers, while college football has been a different story.
“This NFL season has been more profitable for customers, largely due to higher-scoring games and favorites consistently covering the spread — something we haven’t seen as often in College Football this season,” Joey Feazel, head of football for Caesars Sportsbook, said.
Underdogs have had more success in college football, but it’s, again, close. Underdogs are 314-310-1 against the spread in FBS-versus-FBS matchups. Approximately 25.9% of such games have ended with outright underdog wins. There have been 310 overs and 315 unders.
“We seem to be getting the money on a lot of the more popular college sides this season,” Murray added.
NFL odds & ends
-
The Los Angeles Rams, at 5-1, became the Super Bowl favorites at DraftKings after their win over the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.
-
The Kansas City Chiefs (+900), despite losing to the Denver Broncos on Sunday, remained the co-favorites in the AFC, tied with the Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs host the Colts next week. Kansas City opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the Colts.
-
The Carolina Panthers beat the favored Atlanta Falcons on Sunday for their sixth outright win as an underdog this season. The Panthers are the fourth team in the Super Bowl era to win six times as an underdog in the first 11 games of a season. The Falcons, on the other hand, have lost five of six games as a favorite this season.
-
Favorites were 5-8 against the spread entering the Sunday night primetime game. Eight of 13 games had gone under.
-
The Eagles closed as around 2.5-point favorite over the Lions, a line that grew throughout the week. Yet, when sportsbooks reported the betting percentages Sunday, the bulk of the action was on the Lions. “Detroit has been one of the most consistent teams that bettors are taking week in and week out, and we do not expect that to change,” Feazel said.
College football odds and ends
-
Texas Tech improved to 10-1 against the spread with Saturday’s blowout of UCF, the best ATS mark in the FBS. The Red Raiders are the first Power-5 team to cover the spread in 10 of their first 11 games since Colorado in 2016. The last team to play a full schedule and only fail to cover the spread once was Northwestern (12-1 ATS) in 2012.
-
For the first time this season, there is an odds-on favorite in the Heisman Trophy race. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza moved to a -120 favorite over the weekend at ESPN BET. Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin come in next at +225, followed by Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed at +550.
-
Texas A&M was as long as 8-1 at ESPN BET to beat South Carolina Gamecocks during Saturday’s game. The Aggies trailed 30-3 at halftime but rallied in the second half for a 31-30 victory.
-
Alabama lost as a 6.5-point favorite against Oklahoma on Saturday, the sixth loss for the Crimson Tide when favored by six points or more under coach Kalen DeBoer. Alabama never lost more than three such games outright in any two-year span under Nick Saban.
