An early look at the Week 6 line yielded a lot of “they’re favored by HOW MUCH?” reactions. Of the six games picked below, at least three of them had clear favorites favored by 5+ points more than I would have guessed. Will I have the intestinal fortitude to take the dogs? Read on to find out…
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
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Illinois (-10.5) @ Purdue
Is it too harsh to say that Illinois saved its season with their successful two-minute drill against USC? After the horrific loss to Indiana the prior week, they needed to show a pulse and definitely did so against a quality Trojans team, albeit one that is showing old warts on defense. Purdue is decidedly less awful this season. I don’t think Illinois has the kind of offense that allowed Notre Dame to run away from Purdue. I don’t think it comes down to the final play again, but I also see this as one of the lines that is just a little too big.
Illinois 30 – Purdue 20
Wisconsin @ Michigan (-16.5)
The whispers about Luke Fickell’s future in Madison will only get louder if the Wolverines win by more than two TDs here. Unfortunately, it seems likely that they will do just that. Michigan is probably the best of the classic Big 10 archetype that can run the ball and stop the run (top 5 in both categories nationally by EPA/play). They’re fine in passing situations, but built from the inside out. Wisconsin aspires to do the same, but does it all worse. Add in turnover issues for backup QB Danny O’Neill, and it’s getting late early for the Badgers.
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Michigan 35 – Wisconsin 14
Penn St (-25.5) @ UCLA
UCLA likely missed their best chance to get a win this season in the one-FG loss to Northwestern last week. Penn State suffered an even more crushing defeat with their first White Out loss at home against Oregon in overtime. Even in the loss, Penn State showed some growth with Drew Allar making plays to help lead a comeback to get the game to overtime. Penn State knows their season isn’t over and needs to get back on track to make it to the CFP. They will come out aggressive and overwhelm the Bruins.
Penn St 42 – UCLA 14
Minnesota @ Ohio State (-24.5)
Washington’s loss to Ohio State last week is probably the blueprint for how Minnesota can stay in this game and potentially cover the large spread. The Gophers have to play on the road and don’t benefit from Ohio State having to travel cross-country. Nonetheless, we saw last week that the Ohio State offense is probably not ready to start churning out 50 point games against quality opponents. The Gophers have slightly decreased their typically high run rate, which might speed up the game slightly, but Drake Lindsey has been surprisingly adept at moving the chains with short passing offense.
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Ohio State 31 – Minnesota 13
Michigan St @ Nebraska (-10.5)
This game is a great test for how much progress Nebraska has made under Matt Rhule. They have played like the Big 10 smashmouth archetype, but have had a persistent problem losing close games to decent teams. We saw two weeks ago in their loss to Michigan that they aren’t quite over the hump. The Spartans are at least one tier below their in-state rivals in overall quality. Even so, Nebraska has been a bit susceptible to good run offenses and if they can’t get the Spartans off the field, it is going to be difficult to win by more than 10. There are also cracks in the MSU defense, so I will pick this to be a big Dylan Raiola game.
Nebraska 30 – Michigan State 18
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Washington @ Maryland (+5.5)
It’s hard to look at this game and not think about Washington’s ill-fated trip to Rutgers last season. Two cross-country road-trips. Two opponents who are probably a little tougher than they get credit for. Two tough spots on the schedule (a short week last year, the week after Ohio State this year). Two opponents decked out in all red (ok, maybe that one doesn’t matter so much). Last year, everything that could go wrong did. Whether the Huskies can travel to the East Coast and take care of business will say a lot about how much the team has grown in year two under Jedd Fisch.
On the field, the Maryland player to watch will be Malik Washington. The Terps have started 4-0 because their freshman QB has acclimated quickly. He has limited mistakes with only one sack and one interception while also totally ten combined pass and rush TDs through four games. On the other hand, he has put up good numbers against bad competition. The only P4 team he has faced is the shambles of Wisconsin. Even against mediocre opposition, the Maryland offense rates only 98th in passing success rate and 105th in rushing success rate. The Husky defense has health questions at every level, but it will be necessary for them to play to their potential to win this game.
Maryland is better defensively than offensively. They have made it extremely difficult for opposing QBs to pass on them. Though, again, they have faced an overmatched Wisconsin backup, an FCS team, and two poor G5 teams. Many fans noted that the Husky offense struggled against Ohio St (no kidding?), especially when there were fewer carries for Jonah Coleman or designed runs for Demond Williams. While Maryland’s defense is a strength, it’s not the Buckeye front seven and the Huskies should be able to get more push to create lanes for Coleman. The Huskies will need him to put up the kind of numbers he did against the Dawgs’ own soft non-conference schedule. If they can do so, I believe the Huskies can leave College Park happier than they left East Piscataway last year.
Washington 27 – Maryland 20
