Selection Sunday is somehow only two months and two days away. Life, and college basketball, come at you fast!
In 2025, the SEC put 14 teams in the Division I men’s field of 68. But it’s going to be a different story in 2026. Of the five men’s basketball power conferences, four of them have a legitimate shot of putting 10 or more teams in the field, with the Big East the exception. However, the question is whether there will be more than five multi-bid leagues, as was the case in my preseason projection.
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(1) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan
(16) NC Central (MEAC)/UMass Lowell (AE)
(8) St. John’s
(9) Texas A&M
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Tennessee
(12) Utah Valley (WAC)
(4) Texas Tech
(13) UNCW (CAA)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Arkansas
(11) Murray State (MVC)
(3) Houston
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Auburn
(10) TCU
(2) Duke (ACC)
(15) LIU (NEC)
(4) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Iowa State
(16) Southern Miss (Sun Belt)
(8) Georgia
(9) Wisconsin
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(5) North Carolina
(12) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
(4) Illinois
(13) High Point (Big South)
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Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Clemson
(11) Creighton/Baylor
(3) Michigan State
(14) UT Martin (OVC)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Villanova
(10) Miami (Fla.)
(2) Vanderbilt (SEC)
(15) Navy (Patriot)
(2) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
(16) Dartmouth (Ivy)
(8) Saint Louis
(9) Iowa
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Kansas
(12) NC State/Texas
(4) Alabama
(13) ETSU (SoCon)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Utah State (MW)
(11) McNeese (Southland)
(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
(14) Austin Peay (ASUN)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Virginia
(10) Kentucky
(2) Nebraska (Big Ten)
(15) Portland State (Big Sky)
(3) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Purdue
(16) Merrimack (MAAC)/Prairie View (SWAC)
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(8) UCF
(9) Seton Hall
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Louisville
(12) Liberty (CUSA)
(4) Florida
(13) Tulane (American)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) SMU
(11) George Mason (A 10)
(3) BYU
(14) UC Irvine (Big West)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Saint Mary’s
(10) USC
(2) UConn (Big East)
(15) Wright State (Horizon)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Kentucky, TCU, USC, Miami (Fla.)
Last Four IN: Creighton, NC State, Texas, Baylor
First Four OUT: Indiana, UCLA, LSU, Akron
Next Four Out: Ohio State, New Mexico, Santa Clara, Butler
There are 30 new teams in this projection when compared to the preseason version. Since this is the first real bracket of the new season, I’m going to hold off on adding Arrivals and Departures until Friday.
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Conference Breakdown
While there were only five multi-bid conferences in the preseason projection, that number has risen to seven. I wouldn’t call the Atlantic 10’s long-term chances of remaining in the group great, but the Mountain West will have the opportunity to replace it.
Note that early conference schedules have led to a muddled picture near the Cut Line. So, you may be surprised to see the ACC, SEC, and Big East’s relatively high bid totals when compared to the Big 12 and Big Ten’s. With quality wins being the Committee’s most important selection factor since the introduction of the NET, some teams with better metrics (Indiana, for example) are temporarily punished because of their schedules, compared to teams with worse metrics who have Quad 1 wins (Baylor, Creighton). This is something that will sort itself out over the next two months.
SEC (10): Vanderbilt (auto bid), Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Texas (First Four)
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Big 12 (9): Arizona (auto bid), Iowa State, BYU, Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, UCF, TCU, Baylor (First Four)
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, SMU, Virginia, Miami (Fla.), NC State
Big Ten (8): Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska (auto bid), Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC
Big East (5): UConn (auto bid), Villanova, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Creighton (First Four)
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, George Mason (auto bid)
WCC (2): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s
My next update will come on Friday.
