With mere weeks remaining in the regular season, there’s been much discussion about how the playoff field feels close to set.
In many respects, this is true. Outside of the third AL Wild Card Spot — currently held by a Mariners team with a one-game lead over the Royals — there’s a real chance that the remaining 11 teams in a playoff spot will be playing October baseball. Even the divisional races have sizable gaps, with five of the six division leaders holding a lead of at least three games.
Here’s a look at teams that are within five games of a playoff spot, split up by Wild Card and division, listed in order by the smallest margin.
Royals: 1 back of Mariners in AL Wild Card
It’s been something of a sluggish season for the Royals on the heels of their exciting 2024 season that saw Kansas City win a playoff series for the first time since winning the Fall Classic in 2015. Across the board, the Royals have struggled to repeat their magic from 2024, sans the continued stardom of Bobby Witt Jr.
That they’re still in the playoff mix despite that is impressive. The Royals hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Rangers and could also hold it over the Mariners if they win the series against Seattle at Kauffman Stadium on Sept. 17-19. The Royals’ playoff chances will likely be determined by a brutal stretch of games from Sept. 12-21, where they play nine games against the Phillies, Mariners and Blue Jays.
Rangers: 1.5 back of Mariners in AL Wild Card
The story of the 2025 Rangers has been a complicated one. With elite pitching and a run differential that suggested better results, the Rangers have been at or below .500 for a good chunk of the season. Just as Corey Seager, Nathan Eovaldi and Marcus Semien were all placed on the injured list in the span of a week in late August — possibly ending each of their seasons — the Rangers reeled off wins in nine of 10 games, putting them firmly in the Wild Card mix with a struggling Mariners club.
It’s hard to evaluate exactly how good this Rangers team is, especially without their trio of stars potentially out for the remainder of the month. What matters, though, is that Texas has a real shot at finding its way into the playoffs. The Mariners hold the important tiebreaker over the Rangers, which means Texas will need to finish ahead of Seattle in the standings to secure a Wild Card spot.
Guardians: 2.5 back of Mariners in AL Wild Card
The 2024 Guardians won 92 games, beat the Tigers in the ALDS and lost to the Yankees in five games in the ALCS. It seems unlikely that Cleveland will be quite as fortunate in 2025, as the Guardians have gone 48-55 since beginning the season 23-15. Outside of José Ramírez’s usual star-level performance, there have been few Cleveland players making a consistent impact on either side of the ball.
Cleveland will need to turn it around in a hurry, especially offensively, if the Guardians want to make it back to the postseason. Cleveland has scored just 550 runs, tied for the third-fewest in the Majors, while their pitchers have not nearly had as big of an impact as 2024. The Guardians have already lost the tiebreaker advantage against the Rays, but could still take it against the Mariners, Rangers and Royals.
Rays: 3 back of Mariners in AL Wild Card
Everything about the Rays’ 2025 season has been a little odd, including them playing their home games in a Minor League park. Junior Caminero and Drew Rasmussen have been awesome, but the collective production on both sides of the ball has been right around league average, hence the 71-71 record.
Making Tampa Bay’s situation even more muddled is they split the season series with the Mariners, Rangers and Royals, meaning if the Rays ended the season in a tie with one of those clubs for a playoff spot, it’d come down to intradivisional play. If the Rays do end up making the playoffs, we could see Steinbrenner Field — home of the Rays this season and the Yankees Spring Training ballpark — host postseason games.
Giants: 4 back of Mets in NL Wild Card
The Giants weren’t even remotely in the playoff conversation as recently as two weeks ago. Then San Francisco won 11 of 13 games and put themselves within five games of a playoff spot for the first time in quite a while. This is a tough team to peg: since the All-Star break, the Giants have had separate losing streaks of seven and six games, but also put together this 11-2 stretch.
Despite their recent play, the Giants have a tough road to a playoff spot. They don’t hold any of the tiebreakers against the teams ahead of them and lost the season series against San Diego, meaning the Giants would need to finish one game ahead of the Padres for a playoff position. At the very least, the Giants have made things interesting in a roller coaster of a year for the organization.
D-backs: 4.5 back of the Mets in NL Wild Card
Similar to the Giants, the D-backs sold at the Trade Deadline, but Arizona finds itself back in the mix after going 21-13 since the beginning of August. Even without Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor in the fold, the D-backs are scoring plenty of runs thanks to the star-level play from Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo.
For much of the season, Arizona’s pitchers were holding the club back. That has not been the case of late, as D-backs pitchers have a 3.91 ERA since August 1, a top 10 mark in the Majors. If Arizona can continue blending excellent offense with good pitching, the D-backs could perhaps pull off the unlikeliest of comebacks.
Reds: 5 back of Mets in NL Wild Card
On Aug. 21, the Reds were within a half-game of the Mets for the final Wild Card spot. Since then, Cincinnati has plummeted 4 1/2 games in the Wild Card race after going 4-11 dating back to Aug. 20. Reds pitching, which had been the team’s strength all season, has allowed 10 or more runs in three games during their 4-11 stretch.
It goes without saying that the Reds’ pitching staff will need to turn it around for any chance of October baseball, especially since the offense has struggled to score runs all season. What’s compounded the Reds’ chances is this recent skid has also allowed teams like the Giants and D-Backs to leapfrog them in the standings.
Padres: 1 back of Dodgers in NL West
The battle between the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West has been one of the most compelling head-to-head matchups in the decade and it’s been a similar story in 2025. After leading the division by a season-high nine games on July 3, the Dodgers found themselves in a tie for the NL West on numerous occasions in August.
To their credit the Dodgers have since regained the lead in the division and took the season series against San Diego, giving Los Angeles the important tiebreaker in the event that the two clubs end the season with the same record. That means the Padres not only need to erase that gap but also need to finish a game ahead of the Dodgers to secure the division. It’s not impossible, but with both clubs struggling of late, the Padres still have a chance to pull ahead.
Yankees: 3 back of Blue Jays in AL East
Through two months of play, the Yankees looked like a surefire bet to win the AL East for a second straight season. Things unraveled for a good chunk of the summer, as New York plummeted in the standings that saw the Yankees as far back as 6 1/2 games as recently as Aug. 23. After ripping off seven straight wins in late August, the Yankees have found themselves back in the divisional mix.
Could the Yankees still win the division? Similar to the Padres, not only do the Yankees need to make up three games — they also need to finish a game ahead of Toronto after losing the season series. The Yankees also have a tough stretch next week with six games against the Tigers and Red Sox, before their schedule softens for the remainder of the season, with their final 13 games coming against the Twins, Orioles and White Sox.
Mariners: 3.5 back of Astros in AL West
Could the Mariners still win the division? It’s possible, but at this point, Seattle has to be more concerned about simply making the playoffs. The Mariners have gone 6-13 since August 16 and seen their lead for the third Wild Card spot dwindle to just one game.
With that said, the Astros haven’t been playing great, either, with a 28-31 record since the beginning of July. These two clubs also have one more matchup on Sept. 19-21 in Houston, which not only gives the Mariners a chance to gain ground but with a series win, they’d hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Astros.
Red Sox: 4.5 back of Blue Jays in AL East
What a wild journey it’s been for the 2025 Red Sox. In the same year that Boston traded its franchise star in Rafael Devers and was 10 1/2 games back in the AL East in early June, the Red Sox have rebounded in a major way sparked by a combination of young stars taking a step forward and veterans rebounding. The Red Sox have a strong grasp on a Wild Card spot but the division is still very much on their radar.
Like their division-rival Yankees, however, the Red Sox lost the season series to the Blue Jays, who have impressively secured tiebreakers against New York, Boston and Detroit. That means the Red Sox will have to erase the 4 1/2-game gap and finish a game ahead of the Blue Jays, which is further compounded by Roman Anthony’s absence for the remainder of the regular season, and possibly beyond.
