BYU begins life without Richie Saunders when they travel to Tucson Wednesday for a rematch with Arizona. BYU beat Colorado 90-86 in overtime without Richie virtually the entire game, now the competition level steps up significantly.
Arizona is also shorthanded themselves. Star freshman Koa Peat — Arizona’s second leading scorer — and rotation player Dwayne Aristode will both miss Wednesday’s game. Their absence brings Arizona’s 8-man rotation down to 6 regular players.
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The game tips off at 7pm MT on ESPN.
BYU and Arizona by the Numbers
Arizona KenPom: 3
NET ranking: 3
Record: 23-2
Best Wins: Florida (N), UCLA (N), UConn (A), Auburn (H), Alabama (N), San Diego St (N), TCU (A), UCF (A), West Virginia (H), Arizona State (H/A), Oklahoma State (H)
Losses: Kansas (A), Texas Tech (H)
AP Ranking: 4
BYU KenPom: 22
NET Ranking: 20
Record: 19-6 (7-5 Big 12)
AP Ranking: 23
KenPom Prediction: Arizona 87, BYU 76 — Arizona 86% win probability
Point Spread: Arizona -12.5
Point Total: 165.5
First Game Recap
Arizona won the first game 86-83. The Wildcats led as much by 19, but BYU stormed back and had a shot blocked at the basket with under 5 seconds left that would have put BYU ahead. AJ Dybantsa and Rob Wright both struggled from the field that game; AJ led BYU with 24 points, but shot just 6-24. Rob had his worst game of the season, scoring 7 points on 3-16 shooting. Richie Saunders scored 18 points and grabbed 9 rebounds, including 5 offensive. Kennard Davis made five threes in the second half.
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Arizona’s backcourt torched BYU; freshman Brayden Burries scored 29 and backcourt mate Jaden Bradley had 26. Despite that, BYU did a lot of right things to beat Arizona. BYU had 16 offensive rebounds compared to Arizona’s 7, had one fewer turnover than the Wildcats, made 9 more threes, and had 13 more field goal attempts. The free throw battle swung the game in Arizona’s favor; Arizona shot 26-32 while BYU was 12-19.
Arizona Overview
Arizona has lost their last two after starting 23-0. They are great on both ends of the floor, ranking #3 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency and #1 in defensive efficiency. Rebounding is a major key for the Wildcats. They have won the rebounding battle in every game they’ve played this season. Kansas and Texas Tech kept that close the last two games, and that allowed them to beat Arizona in other areas and win the game. BYU and Arizona were nearly even in rebounds in Provo, but the free throw disparity swung the game in Arizona’s favor.
The big knock on this team is the three ball. Arizona shoots just 23.6% of their field goal attempts from three, which is by far the lowest rate in the Big 12, and shoot 32% from three in conference play (#15 in Big 12). Arizona doesn’t need the three ball to win and have proved this year they can beat great teams without the three ball, but when teams are competitive with them on the glass and outshoot them from the arc or the foul line Arizona is vulnerable. Texas Tech made nine more threes than Arizona in their win. The Jayhawks were pretty even on both the glass and the three line, but made 13 more free throws than the Wildcats.
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If BYU has any chance to pull the upset, they must be competitive on the glass once again. BYU did that the first matchup and had a shot at the basket to win the game, but Brayden Burries made a great defensive play to seal the Arizona win.
Prediction
BYU could get steamrolled this game. The Cougs haven’t beat any top teams with Richie, and now they play at the #4 in the nation without Richie Saunders. Even without Koa Peat, Arizona still has a great starting five. Burries and Bradley combined for 55 points in Provo, and Tobe Awaka is the best rebounder in the country. Awaka normally comes off the bench behind Peat, and his motor and brute strength make him a terror on the glass. He’ll get more minutes this game without Peat.
Maybe this is my glass half full view, but I see a path for BYU to make this competitive. While Richie is a bigger loss to BYU than the absence of Peat and Aristode is to Arizona, their absence does help BYU. I think the top key in this game is being competitive on the glass and getting Awaka in foul trouble. Those two things go hand in hand. Awaka leads the nation in offensive rebound percentage, but also is one of the most foul prone players in the Big 12, averaging 5.4 fouls per 40 minutes. If BYU can get Awaka in early foul trouble, they’ll force Arizona to either tap into unproven players behind him or force Awaka to play with fouls, which could make him less aggressive or get him to foul out.
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Here’s another blue-goggled view. Some BYU fans have said Arizona will come out angry after coming off back-to-back losses. I see the opposite; I think Arizona could be tight. After BYU they play at Houston, so if they lose to BYU they are staring down the barrel of four consecutive losses. There is a lot of pressure on Arizona to win this game.
BYU is undoubtedly worse without Richie, but they’ll have the chance to throw some wrinkles to Arizona early in the game that the Wildcats haven’t seen on tape. AJ will get hounded even more than normal, and BYU will need his playmaking ability to find open teammates.
I’ll take Arizona to win, but I think BYU comes out inspired and keeps the game competitive.
Prediction: Arizona 84, BYU 78
