BYU heads to Lawrence in one of the most anticipated college basketball games for all basketball fans this season. Most think AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson will be the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft in what may be one of the strongest freshmen classes this century. This is the lone regular season meeting between the two teams, and College Gameday will be onsite. Peterson has played in just 10 of Kansas’ 20 games this season, but Bill Self said he expects Peterson to play after missing last Saturday’s game with an ankle injury.
The game tips off at 3:30 CT on ESPN.
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BYU and Kansas by the Numbers
Kansas KenPom: 14
NET ranking: 15
Record: 15-5
Best Wins: Tennessee (N), Missouri (N), NC State (N), TCU (H), Iowa State (H), Baylor (H), Colorado (A), Kansas State (A)
Losses: North Carolina (A), Duke (N), UConn (H), UCF (A), West Virginia (A)
AP Ranking: 14
BYU KenPom: 15
NET Ranking: 14
Record: 17-2
AP Ranking: 13
KenPom Prediction: Kansas 79, BYU 75 — BYU 36% win probability
Point Spread: Kansas -4.5
Point Total: 157.5
Kansas Overview
After an 11-5 start and 1-2 start to Big 12 play, Kansas has won four straight and is playing their best ball of the season. Peterson draws the headlines and is a sensational player, but Kansas is more than just Peterson. The Jayhawks are good on both ends of the floor and have multiple ways to score. Offensively, Kansas’s metrics rank in the top half of the Big 12 in conference play. They are second in both FG and FT percentage and are fifth in three-point percentage. They turn the ball over on just 13.6% of their possessions in Big 12 play (#3 in Big 12) and are middle of the pack in offensive rebound percentage. They have guards and bigs that can score.
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Defensively, Kansas is really good at protecting the paint and forcing shots away from the basket. They have the best two-point defense in Big 12 play, anchored by big men Flory Bidunga and Bryson Tiller who are both rim protectors. They lead the Big 12 in block percentage and don’t foul a ton either. Kansas is bottom three in the Big 12 in turnovers forced, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing since it’s largely a byproduct of their sound positional defense, but they aren’t a team that will trap or pressure a lot.
Another area where Kansas’ defense can be susceptible is the three-point line. 41.3% of the points Kansas gives up in Big 12 play are from three, which are most in the league. Much of that can be attributed to opponents not being able to generate good looks in the paint, but Kansas also allows opponents to shoot 36% in Big 12 play (#10 in Big 12). Kansas’ first three Big 12 opponents shot over 40% from the field, and the Jayhawks have shored up their three-point defense significantly the last four games. Iowa State is the third best three-point shooting team in the country and shot 9-27 (33%) from three in their 21-point loss at Kansas.
Kansas, of course, has arguably the best home court advantage in the sport. This will be the 1,000th game in Allen Fieldhouse, and Bill Self has a bonkers 94% win percentage at home in his 20+ years as Kansas head coach. BYU has handed Self one of his 22 losses at home.
Players to watch
Darryn Peterson, Guard — Some have compared to Peterson to Kobe Bryant. He is an elite shooter/scorer who is as polished of a college scorer as we’ve seen. In 10 games, Peterson is averaging 21.6 points while shooting 49% from the field and and 42% from three. He averages 7 three-point attempts per game and 5 free throw attempts. He averages 1.9 assists compared to 3.6 for Dybantsa. Peterson has battled hamstring issues and now an ankle injury this season and has played 30+ minutes in just four games. His ankle situation will be something to monitor.
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Flory Bidunga, Forward/Center — The 6-foot-10 sophomore big man has been one of the most improved players in the Big 12. Bidunga is the anchor of Kansas’ defense and third-leading scorer, averaging 14.4 points, 9 rebounds, 2.7 blocks while shooting 67% from the floor. AJ and Rob both struggled shooting versus Arizona’s big front line, and Bidunga won’t things easy for either of those guys.
Tre White, Wing — The 6-foot-7 wing averages 14.9 points and 7.3 rebounds on 43% shooting from three. White is Kansas’ top scorer after Peterson and can get to rim or shoot of the catch. I expect he’ll get a lot of time matched up on AJ,
Melvin Council, Guard — The 6-foot-4 guard leads Kansas with 5.2 assists and averages 13.7 points and 4.6 rebounds. Council is a well rounded guard who has picked up his offensive performance after a slower start to the season.
Bryson Tiller, Forward/Center — Tiller teams with Bidunga to give Kansas a big starting front court the 6-foot-11 freshman averages 8.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks. Tiller isn’t much of a threat from outside — he shoots 9-35 (26%) from three on season, and I expect BYU to help hard off of him and force him to hit open jump shots.
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Prediction
Three players in this game played two years ago when BYU upset Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse — Richie Saunders is the lone player from BYU that got minutes (played 23 minutes off the bench), and Kansas bench players Elmarko Jackson and Jamari McDowell each played 13 minutes.
Kansas isn’t quite as good as Arizona, but Allen Fieldhouse is tough to win and Kansas does things that could give BYU trouble. Arizona had success most of the game packing the paint with their big frontline and forcing BYU into either tough twos or outside shots. AJ or Rob didn’t make their twos, and BYU didn’t get going from three until Kennard Davis knocked down five threes in the second half. I think Kansas will employ a similar strategy. They already like to limit twos and force opponents into outside shots, and that game plan fits right into how to stop BYU. BYU will need to hit outside shots early to loosen the Kansas defense and keep the crowd from becoming an avalanche. Richie is always the key to BYU’s outside shooting, and a game from Kennard Davis where he can hit an early outside shot or two would help keep Kansas’s defense honest and give AJ more space to operate.
Defensively for BYU, they have struggled to guard opposing lead guards. Utah’s guards had success against BYU both games, and Arizona’s backcourt duo of Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley combined for 55 points.
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I expect this to be a close game. Both teams are right next to each other whether you looks at the polls or the metrics. If BYU can hit some early shots to stretch Kansas’ defense that likes to take away shots in the paint, then I think they have a great shot to win. Ultimately, I’ll side with the Jayhawks in their home gym. BYU has struggled to slow down lead guards, and Peterson is on a different level than anyone BYU has seen. His presence could throw off Kansas’ rhythm a bit and he might press too much to outduel AJ, but I have more logical reasons to side with Kansas.
Prediction: Kansas 81, BYU 80
