BYU returns to the Marriott Center for the first time since November 11 when they host UC Riverside Saturday night in Provo. This is just BYU’s third home game of the season and the first game of a four-game homestand.
The game is at 7pm MT on ESPN+.
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BYU and UC Riverside by the Numbers
UC Riverside KenPom: 250
NET ranking: 205
Record: 5-5
Best Wins: Cal Poly (A), San Diego (A)
Losses: New Mexico (A), North Dakota (H), Cal Baptist (A), Utah Tech (A), UC Irvine (A)
AP Ranking: N/A
BYU KenPom: 11
NET Ranking: 9
Record: 8-1
AP Ranking: 10
KenPom Prediction: BYU 90, UCR 62 — BYU 99% win probability
Point Spread: BYU -33.5
Point Total: 153.5
UC Riverside Overview
UC Riverside was picked to finish 9th out of 11 teams in the Preseason Big West Poll. They are the second lowest rated KenPom team on BYU’s schedule after Holy Cross.
The Highlanders haven’t done much good this year. Offensively, they turn the ball over a lot, don’t grab many offensive rebounds, and have one of the lowest assist rates in the nation. They shoot the ball decently inside the arc and do a pretty good job at getting to the foul line.
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Defensively they are rated even worse than their offense. They don’t force turnovers and allow a lot of shots at the rim. They focus on taking away the three ball, but that has opened up a lot of dribble penetration on their defense.
Players to Watch
Marqui Worthy, Guard — Worthy averages 16 ppg and has one of the highest free throw rates in the country, averaging nearly 7 attempts per game. His game is built on getting to the rim.
Andrew Henderson, Guard — Henderson leads the team in scoring at 17.7 ppg. He shoots 7 threes per game and shoot 35% from distance. He and Worthy are the focal points of the offense.
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Osiris Grady, Forward — The 6-foot-9 forward averages 13.2 ppg and leads the team in rebounding (6.6 rpg). After these three players, UCR sees a steep drop in scoring.
Prediction
BYU hasn’t had a home game in nearly over a month and is coming off a thrilling win. I expect a good home crowd and a BYU team that will want to feed off the energy, particularly in finding their outside shot. UC Riverside isn’t very good and BYU especially can exploit their defense. Their defensive philosophy is similar to Cal Baptist, who BYU beat by 31 and is a much better team than UCR. They want to limit three-point attempts and will be conservative in their help defense in order to stay on shooters. AJ Dybantsa and Rob Wright should feast against that. The only question will be is if BYU can start fast or if they will have to wait until the second half to get the blowout rolling.
Prediction: BYU 94, UC Riverside 57
