BYU looks to rebound from the UConn loss with another top 25 matchup when Wisconsin comes to Salt Lake City for a Friday afternoon rematch of last year’s thrilling Round of 32 NCAA game.
The game tips off at 2pm MT at the Delta Center in SLC. The game is broadcast exclusively on Peacock, but YouTube TV subscribers can watch the game on NBCSN, which an had an exclusive launch with YTTV this past Monday.
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BYU and Wisconsin by the Numbers
Wisconsin KenPom: 16
UW record: 4-0
UW AP Ranking: 23
BYU KenPom: 17
BYU record: 3-1
BYU AP Ranking: 9
KenPom Prediction: BYU 81, UConn 79 — BYU 57% win probability
Point Spread: BYU -4 (UConn favored)
Point Total: 161.5
Wisconsin Overview
Wisconsin is off to a 4-0 start after rolling four mid-major opponents and averaging 93.3 ppg. Their KenPom Strength of Schedule through four games is 343 nationally. They played one power conference team as an exhibition, losing 84-83 to Oklahoma in Milwaukee. BYU will be the Badgers first power conference opponent of the regular season and first real test for the potent offense.
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Wisconsin has a high-scoring backcourt duo and starting 5 where each player can knock down the three ball. Four games against lower competition isn’t the best sample size, but the Badgers shoot 36% from three and 53% of their field goal attempts come from long distance, which is 7th nationally.
Players to Watch
Gone is star guard John Tonje, who carved BYU up for 37 points, but UW returns two starters from last year’s team and added three nice transfers in the starting lineup. Wisconsin has a couple talented freshmen who they bring off the bench, but so far haven’t got a ton of bench production.
John Blackwell, Guard — Blackwell was second on the team in scoring last year at 15.8 ppg and averages just a shade under 20 this season. Through four games, Blackwell is shooting 13-26 from three and 21-24 from the free throw line. Blackwell scored 21 points versus BYU last season and is the top player for BYU to watch.
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Nick Boyd, Guard — A fifth-year senior, Boyd played three seasons at FAU and last year at San Diego State before transferring to Wisconsin to be their starting point guard. Boyd averaged 13.5 ppg last year and averages 20 points in four games this season. Boyd is 19-21 from the foul line and 9-24 from three through four games. He and Blackwell averaged a combined 39.5 ppg.
Nolan Winter, Center — Wisconsin’s other returning starter alongside Blackwell, Winter last season averaged 9.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. He’s upped that to 14.3 points and 9.4 rebounds early on this season. Winter is a big body at 7 feet, but he is much different than UConn Center Tarris Reed, who bullied BYU down low and scored 21 points. Boyd can step out and hit the three but doesn’t really play bully ball down low.
Austin Rapp, Forward — A transfer from Portland, Rapp is a 6-foot-10 stretch four who isn’t afraid to fire from deep. Rapp averaged 13.8 ppg as a freshman at Portland last season and made shot 35% from three on 7.6 attempts per game. Rapp is shooting 32% from three this season, but really stretches the floor at his size and can go off for three or more threes on any night.
Andrew Rohde, Forward — A transfer from Virginia Rohde is a 6-foot-6 senior and UW’s starting three. Rohde averaged 9.3 ppg last year at Virginia on 41% shooting from three and is the fifth option in the starting five, averaging 7.8 ppg this season.
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Storylines to Watch
What is BYU’s player availability? Kevin Young indicated that starter Kennard Davis will likely be out this game as he remains out indefinitely after a DUI charge, to which he has since pleaded not guilty. Starting center Keba Keita played just 8 minutes versus UConn before getting knocked in the head and coming up woozy. Kevin Young said Wednesday that Keba is progressing well and is “day-to-day”. Keba may end up playing, but based on conversations I’ve had, I will not be surprised if Keba is ruled out this game.
Three-Point battle. If both teams hit about an even number of threes, then I think BYU wins comfortably. Wisconsin will need to outshoot BYU from the three-point line, which they are certainly capable of doing. The Badgers are easily the best shooting team BYU has played so far and each starter is a threat from deep. BYU has shot well from three in the second half of their last two games, but have shot terribly in the first half. BYU doesn’t need to make more threes than UW since Rob Wright and AJ Dybantsa are so dynamic with scoring in the paint, but BYU has to knock down shots and keep Wisconsin from getting too many open looks. If Richie Saunders can hit down a few threes I think BYU will win. If he shoots 0-7 like he did versus UConn, I’m not sure BYU can overcome that.
How does Wisconsin slow down AJ Dybantsa? Dybantsa is a matchup nightmare for any team, and Wisconsin could really struggle slowing AJ. The most likely options to guard AJ are 6-6 wing Andrew Rohde or four man Andrew Rohde. UConn has two good wing defenders in Jaylin Stewart and Jayden Ross as well as stretch four Alex Karaban, but they had no answer to AJ in the second half once BYU got its spacing figured out. Wisconsin doesn’t have those wing defenders that UConn has. They may elect to bring a second defender and try to cheat into the paint with help, which will make BYU hitting some outside shots imperative. Tyler Mrus didn’t hit a three in the second half, but BYU had him on the floor for much of the run due to the floor spacing he gave. I expect BYU to give Mrus, Dawson Baker, and even Miahailo Boskovic good run to space the floor for AJ. And when AJ gets one-on-one opportunities, he should be able to feast.
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Which team can come up with enough key defensive stops? I expect both defenses having a hard time stopping the other offense. In a game which may have a lot of point, the key will be which defense can come up with situational stops either late or in the middle of the game to put together runs or stop a run.
Prediction
I expect great offensive play. Wisconsin can space the floor as well as any team in the country, and BYU’s big three is as good as any team in college basketball. No Keba Keita would be a big blow to BYU, but BYU showed in the second half versus UConn that they can play good enough defensively to win games. AJ is incredibly long and is disruptive defensively when he’s locked in, and Dominique Diomande and Khadim Mboup give real trouble with their length and athleticism.
I have real concerns about BYU’s ability to guard Wisconsin from three. UConn got some good looks they missed that Wisconsin would likely make. UConn won’t punish BYU down low like UConn good, but their two starting guards have lots of space to operate with the spacing UW has and the guys around them will hit open shots.
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Even if Keba doesn’t play, I’ll give BYU the edge due to the game being in Salt Lake City and BYU’s ability to create more mismatches with AJ and Rob Wright in space. In a game that could be a high value possession game down the stretch, I trust BYU’s ability more to manufacture shots and offense.
Prediction: BYU 89, Wisconsin 85
